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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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People were concerned the buffalo bomb was gonna hurt ski resorts , and in the end ..some gained slightly.
 

This 6 day stretch on the other hand .I haven’t personally looked but ..man they are gonna need to push the snow guns hard starting Thursday (eve?) and pray that things turn somewhat decent (I would think )

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50 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yah.  Looking too warm right now.   

Yeah I’m with the Pope on this one, it could be something but the pattern doesn’t support anything big. Thermals are marginal at best, so even if it does snow it would be a heavy wet low ratio snow. The low isn’t all that strong either, we need the pacific to improve for bigger threats. 

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah I’m with the Pope on this one, it could be something but the pattern doesn’t support anything big. Thermals are marginal at best, so even if it does snow it would be a heavy wet low ratio snow. The low isn’t all that strong either, we need the pacific to improve for bigger threats. 

Bold statement for a pattern that has even been established by the 5th-7th.

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"Pattern then gets messy and uncertain for Wed night thru Fri as
models want to show sfc troughing or low pressure into the offshore
waters with mid-level trough moving slowly offshore as well. As
cooler thermal profiles will be advecting southward, potential for
rain to wet snow is possible depending on time of day, but it`s not
a pattern that would necessarily generate much accumulation. Beyond
Wed night into Fri, kept a broad brushed Chance PoP before trending
drier for the weekend."

Definitely a thread the needle look for now.     GFS was better, but still too close to being a mostly rain event

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Close though. Seems like it invests a little too much in the lead wave. But even that one looks icy over interior SNE N of pike and snowy for CNE/NNE

Five days out makes it “feel” more realistic. We’ll see if we get other ops (cough: EURO) on board for more favorable cyclogenesis. It has been close on that model too. We’re in the game. Even an advisory event would be a win given the broader pattern coming. 

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11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So we decided to keep our ski trip in a few weeks. Brother was up at cranmore today.

 

said the conditions are absolutely pathetic for Jan 1.

 

Hoping they score over the next 2+ weeks 

Cranmore has to be a disaster , the base is prolly apply sauce

 

that being said , if it’s not decent in a couple weeks for your location , I would assume the New England ski resorts would be in a world of hurt 

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Not personally too concerned about marginality after ~ 12z Thursday.  Not even a little.  Sorry. 

With the main baroclinic axis/boundary aligned S of LI by then, and a 1035 mb high pressure sprawling and well-established N ... with exertion S-E, and DPs in the upper teens as far S as interior S Maine by 18z that day? 

Forget it.   It is vastly more likely given those synoptic inputs ...assuming the actually set in with the general cinema of this particular GFS run, would easily flop marginal into the colder side.  Both in 2-meter, but there's quite likely to be 925 to 850 mb layer "barrier jet" anyway. 

But that's the thing...it's not really barrier to anything - as in holding warming back.  The mid level wind max/DPVA are both S of LGA-BOS line, while a strong +PP/ high pressure N exerts.  That should be all that's needed to be said.

Models are not likely to get that at this range and/or do so with questionable accuracy at best.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This had better not turn into another one that looks good for areas just inland and ends up being congrats Berks to Interior Maine again. Cannot take another one 

Nah I doubt it. High position is totally different so it won’t be this weird coastal front back over Fitchburg like in the 12/16 event. 

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Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I assume it means wild storm solution after a night out of crazy uncle New Year’s Eve drinking . 

Yeah…relatively speaking. In an absolute sense it wasn’t all that crazy. It was just a more defined coastal with a CCB over New England. 

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3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think the difference In the western ridge position was something Scott picked up on By mid December clearly and he consistently cited the tropical forcing saying that this was an up and in look . Meaning he saw enough and he has the knowledge to Realize the look was not favoring the coast, Bob as well .  I.E he used the tropical forcing to deduce Where the ridging was likely to set up (Or why it wouldn’t trend favorable) Now this wasn’t deduced as clearly early month , but as we entered the favorable stormy period , it was by scooter . 

So while the pattern looked potentially amazing in the future by early December it didn’t by mid month and never was that great for the CP .

I cited back in November that it would be an up and in look for December, but I just didn't expect next to nothing within 50mi of the coast.

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