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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Things may shape up decently for us pattern wise post Jan 5th period..

Yeah I’m somewhat optimistic looking at the N PAC near end of ensembles. I won’t be expecting flipping to deep winter around here though very quickly. Canada is still pretty warm when we start rebuilding the western ridge so we’ll be dealing with some marginal airmasses most likely initially. But early to mid January isn’t the worst time to try and deal with more modified polar airmasses.

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33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Things may shape up decently for us pattern wise post Jan 5th period..

Better to get through this warm period now and not the middle to end of January. At that point we would be writing off a week in February and hoping for March to deliver. At least a slightly AN patter in January will still produce some wintry weather around here. This arctic airmass now will help cool the Atlantic some as well, maybe.. 

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Emerging in 8? 

image.png.17aca062341838820565f8a290db95d8.png

I don't think the amplitude will be enough to really impact things much, this wave has been trending weaker with time on both ensembles...it seems the tendency so far this winter has been for a weaker wave than shown in the long range regardless of what phase its in

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On 12/22/2022 at 11:26 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We see the nose of a rat poking out…

 

On 12/22/2022 at 11:34 AM, moneypitmike said:

 

 

On 12/22/2022 at 11:34 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

More like...

See the source image

 

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If we get through second week of Jan without anything on the horizon, rat talk will begin

 

Too late

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8 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Not to piss anyone off, but this grinch was much better than some of the past. We got about 8” and the fake snow outlook looks decent the next few days. Major disaster avoided for the northern green ski resorts.


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Yeah we were discussing in the storm thread before it happened that as we got closer, it was clear that it wouldn’t be a pack destroyer for the ski resorts. It was nothing like the 2020 destroyer. 

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Yeah we were discussing in the storm thread before it happened that as we got closer, it was clear that it wouldn’t be a pack destroyer for the ski resorts. It was nothing like the 2020 destroyer. 

Don’t know if we can get lucky next weekend too. That looks wet and upper 30s, which won’t kill it, but not exactly what you want in jan. Need they to trend colder. What are you seeing?


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14 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:


Don’t know if we can get lucky next weekend too. That looks wet and upper 30s, which won’t kill it, but not exactly what you want in jan. Need they to trend colder. What are you seeing?


.

Next and into early January looks pretty ugly. We’ll see as we get closer if it ends up being more like 30s/40s for resorts vs 50s but not looking good after 12/28 for probably at least a week. 

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17 minutes ago, 512high said:

For "Mets", this maybe a stupid question, but, with the fridged air mass (maybe short lived etc) does that have any effect cooling ocean temps down? Kept hearing ocean temps were warm etc,  

It’s cooling them down slowly. Ocean temps weren’t the problem though overall. 

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