Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Happy New Year...? What'd i miss yesterday? Enjoy the day. We sit back and watch the models with the pattern change. Nothing to really add to the discussion, just need to see how things play out over next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 HNY everyone! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Happy new year all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 43.9f overnight low, 0.18"rn. Clear blue skies. Pretty sure the lawn greened upSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Lawns looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Happy Beer Year all! Lawn greened right back up last 2 days. Let’s hope the snowy look holds later this week and beyond 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 It's April in January. Sort of like the Christmas in July Sale at Crazy Eddie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right, but all I'm saying is that the pattern that people were excited about materialized for the most part. We got a huge NAO block and the PNA went positive. Details like the ridge being a bit too far to the west and the PV getting stuck out there are details you worry about closer in. I think the difference In the western ridge position was something Scott picked up on By mid December clearly and he consistently cited the tropical forcing saying that this was an up and in look . Meaning he saw enough and he has the knowledge to Realize the look was not favoring the coast, Bob as well . I.E he used the tropical forcing to deduce Where the ridging was likely to set up (Or why it wouldn’t trend favorable) Now this wasn’t deduced as clearly early month , but as we entered the favorable stormy period , it was by scooter . So while the pattern looked potentially amazing in the future by early December it didn’t by mid month and never was that great for the CP . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Enjoy this. Be present to it. It’s the only sure thing. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 850mb holding in +2 to +5 (NW-SE) through SNE with a light NW flow and full sun ... If only in April. Immersion into ecstatic euphorium 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 EPS wasn’t too enthusiastic about 1/6, but it wasn’t awful either. Hopefully we get an improvement today on 12z. EPS are still showing a great pattern though in the 11-15 like yesterday so that is 2 runs in a row where it went the GEFS route of a much better looking pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Happy Tanuary Almost all of my snow is gone. Just a couple of small piles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS wasn’t too enthusiastic about 1/6, but it wasn’t awful either. Hopefully we get an improvement today on 12z. EPS are still showing a great pattern though in the 11-15 like yesterday so that is 2 runs in a row where it went the GEFS route of a much better looking pacific. same assessment over here. adding ... 00z GEFs ( fwiw) were a significant 'tick' ( as you guys call it) improved. Perhaps two or three ticks. There's spread only around the NW arc of the 132-144 hour position off the 00z. That "only" in that context is said deliberately. I've noticed in the past, if the spread is all directions, the entire envelope's value is lower in skill. This way, we argue at least a presence and go from there. But several of those members in that smear are below 995 mb, which is a new circumstance among GEF cluster. Prior cycles were unanimously weaker. The morphology of the 500 mb in the OV was also rotated more neutral. It's seemingly petty to focus, but this is threading the needle on mechanics. If the aft/trailing mechanics come off the Pacific weak vs just that much stronger has been clearly dictating whether we get .2" to .5" QPF in a marginal therm, vs the whiff. We said all along,...well, I did, that this was the first opportunity "at all" - which in spirit and fairness of what that means, no grousing if a minor appetizer isn't delivered. There's also a more of a telecon -scaled signal out there between 270 and 300 or so hours. I think we mentioned yesterday. No changes on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Happy Tanuary Almost all of my snow is gone. Just a couple of small piles Welcome to the rest of our worlds since 2.5 weeks ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Happy Tanuary Almost all of my snow is gone. Just a couple of small piles Decent man made base left at WaWa 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Welcome to the rest of our worlds since 2.5 weeks 12.5 years ago! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Decent man made base left at WaWa Hope you have fun! Last night looked less than ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Welcome to the rest of our worlds since 2.5 weeks ago! The amount of small branches etc that came down on the 23rd is staggering At least I can clean them up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 I mean to be honest , it’s pretty gorgeous out . im teetering on wondering why I even want it cold , mild temps 50-60 are sorta perfect 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I mean to be honest , it’s pretty gorgeous out . im teetering on wondering why I even want it cold , mild temps 50-60 are sorta perfect We teeter. I kind of like teetering, because like you, I have enjoyed this recent weather. My hope is that we teeter for a while, but the winter slowly bleeds back in and gets deeper and deeper, and stays here for about six weeks, much better than the radical ups and down in my opinion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Jan 6th threat: H5 has appeal, and will likely continue to, but surface looks too warm, and that’s the prevailing issue. Highest POP collocated with most marginal temps up to 850. Warm antecedent air mass, weak dynamics, and incoming surface cold lags behind. Systems like this where in-situ cold —or lack thereof—makes or breaks it. We know where this case falls. Advisory event if everything works out perfectly, onset during overnight, stronger system. Next. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I mean to be honest , it’s pretty gorgeous out . im teetering on wondering why I even want it cold , mild temps 50-60 are sorta perfect No kidding. This is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Happy new year! To ring in 2023 the Pope has spoken, and it looks like he is saying no to the Jan 6-7th threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 We just looped our dog around the neighborhood. Temps are good but the winds kinda suck. Our road is a disaster as usual. The cold then thaw and rain do not help matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, George001 said: Happy new year! To ring in 2023 the Pope has spoken, and it looks like he is saying no to the Jan 6-7th threat. Yah. Looking too warm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Initial threat around the 5th-7th was always a wildcard as the pattern takes hold. Maybe someone can score. See if pattern evolves more conducive towards mid-month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Happy Tanuary Almost all of my snow is gone. Just a couple of small piles You still have snow? My daffodils are coming up. No joke. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Frost came out of the ground yesterday. Mud season 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Deep winter! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Friend of mine just texted me this. He’s up in Craftsbury VT in the Northeast kingdom. That is pretty sad Jan 1st snow cover for that region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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