CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Spanks45 said: I'm going to continue to use this oak as a forecasting tool. Despite being in a wide open area, 60ish MPH winds, 5 degrees and soon to be January 1st. It still has a majority of it's leaves hanging on. No snow until a majority of the leaves fall off... Side note, pretty cool to see the ceiling down to about 500 ft here. Clear in the valley, but the top of the hill is socked in dense fog and barely visible. It has been slowly sinking down all morning. Did Stein get it? I noticed the drought stricken trees left leaves on them….usually means it’s dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: This month is a lock for AN and not just by a half degree. Will finish about 5.1° AN here, 3rd mildest of 25 Decembers and 3rd straight AN month, but also AN for snow thanks to the big dump 2 weeks ago. CAR at +6 but GYX a modest +2.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Hey, Mercury Retrograde ends on my birthday- Jan 18th- I'm sure that could indicate something apocalyptic is going to happen 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, tamarack said: Will finish about 5.1° AN here, 3rd mildest of 25 Decembers and 3rd straight AN month, but also AN for snow thanks to the big dump 2 weeks ago. CAR at +6 but GYX a modest +2.5. Oh I meant for January. My bad. But yeah nice to get the AN snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 minute ago, #NoPoles said: Hey, Mercury Retrograde ends on my birthday- Jan 18th- I'm sure that could indicate something apocalyptic is going to happen Combine that with Steve’s moon phases and we’re all gonna die. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Meanwhile 50s & 60s for highs all week. It'll probably be warmer now than in March/April when the diarrhea of death returns all spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s the white (bald) faced hornet nest height. Not paper wasps. That’s why they pay us the big bucks. Very few hornet nests here so no data. However, in Fort Kent snowfall varied inversely with nest height. (Except for the huge nest in a small yellow birch sapling near Allagash - bent it over to nearly crochet wicket shape, so one would get a different read from a July obs compared to one in September when I saw it. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Now this is a torch . A pure and epic 6 day torchathon. Dec 30-Jan 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Now this is a torch . A pure and epic 6 day torchathon. Dec 30-Jan 4. You know it’s bad when you can’t even get a “mountain magic” meme from Jspin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: You know it’s bad when you can’t even get a “mountain magic” meme from Jspin. A torch is kind of nice, when there isn’t snow to watch melt away . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS continues to lead the weenie train. EPS looks good, but also slowly pushes back. Watch and wait.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: A torch is kind of nice, when there isn’t snow to watch melt away . An additional mud season is an added bonus. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Gfs trying to come through next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Slept about 12 hours and feeling much better this morning. Glad you’re feeling better! I have my new snowblower waiting in the garage-it almost looks bored. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Watch and wait.... 23-24? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Liking the GFS at 12z here for next week. That’s a good trend on the trailing wave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Liking the GFS at 12z here for next week. That’s a good trend on the trailing wave. My guess would be just keeping things Consistently active from January 7- end of January would make it pretty damn hard not to deliver near normal snowfall during peak climo (No promises regarding active pattern and snow pack retention ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My guess would be just keeping things Very active from January 7- end of January would make it pretty damn hard not to deliver near normal snowfall during peak climo Yes. Don't need big cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Canadian trying for happy ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Liking the GFS at 12z here for next week. That’s a good trend on the trailing wave. pretty consistent trend from the GFS with the 250mb jet too. this will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. Don't need big cold. Yeah just keep it active. I hope the gfs stuff (gfs op and ensemble) has a clue because many would be happy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah just keep it active. I hope the gfs stuff (gfs op and ensemble) has a clue because many would be happy. First time I have ever done this, but I ignored the EPS and went all GEFS. Its handled the Pacific better and is a better match for the shift in tropical forcing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Liking the GFS at 12z here for next week. That’s a good trend on the trailing wave. First 00z 12z run to show it that favorable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian trying for happy ending. That model is sponsored by Canadian Tire, just trying to sell you more snows all the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: First 00z 12z run to show it that favorable. I've been noticing that too. Interesting. It's like the data assimilation runs want to pull a Pac wave with more power dynamics, but the measured/realized sounding version don't. That's just just purely speculation based on the run differentials, mind you. Could be science fiction. Lol. But yeah, when see a better cyclone materialize and bring low/moderate goods, it's been the 06 or 18z versions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 This head cold is insane... It's just unrelenting misery. I had f'um Covid last April. I'd take that over this any day of the week. My god 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 59 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Opening up the pool tomorrow? Polar plunge to ring in the new year tomorrow? I will pull the cover back if you are stopping by!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Did Stein get it? I noticed the drought stricken trees left leaves on them….usually means it’s dead. The tree actually looked great this year. Best leaf coverage in 3 years, maybe too happy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 GGEM looks tasty for D9, too - but, actually...there's a proper telecon signal out between 250 and 300 hours. Already, 1/3 of the GEF members carry an important system through the eastern mid latitude/coastal. The EPS at 00z was also decently closing mean isobaric layouts in that range. The numeric telecon converging on 1/3 membership is a decent signal. I like that one as an early look. Maybe we can notch the bed posts with a couple sub -index scaled event before than... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: First time I have ever done this, but I ignored the EPS and went all GEFS. Its handled the Pacific better and is a better match for the shift in tropical forcing. Wow. That’s weenie shock-jock stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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