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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

I'm going to continue to use this oak as a forecasting tool. Despite being in a wide open area, 60ish MPH winds, 5 degrees and soon to be January 1st. It still has a majority of it's leaves hanging on. No snow until a majority of the leaves fall off...

Side note, pretty cool to see the ceiling down to about 500 ft here. Clear in the valley, but the top of the hill is socked in dense fog and barely visible. It has been slowly sinking down all morning. 

20221231_091759.jpg

Did Stein get it? I noticed the drought stricken trees left leaves on them….usually means it’s dead. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s the white (bald) faced hornet nest height. Not paper wasps. 
 

That’s why they pay us the big bucks. 

Very few hornet nests here so no data.  However, in Fort Kent snowfall varied inversely with nest height.  (Except for the huge nest in a small yellow birch sapling near Allagash - bent it over to nearly crochet wicket shape, so one would get a different read from a July obs compared to one in September when I saw it.  :nerdsmiley:  )

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Liking the GFS at 12z here for next week. That’s a good trend on the trailing wave. 

My guess would be just keeping things Consistently active from January 7- end of January would make it pretty damn hard not to deliver near normal snowfall during peak climo (No promises regarding active pattern and snow pack retention )

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah just keep it active. I hope the gfs stuff (gfs op and ensemble) has a clue because many would be happy. 

First time I have ever done this, but I ignored the EPS and went all GEFS. Its handled the Pacific better and is a better match for the shift in tropical forcing.

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5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

First 00z 12z run to show it that favorable. 

I've been noticing that too. Interesting.   It's like the data assimilation runs want to pull a Pac wave with more power dynamics, but the measured/realized sounding version don't.

That's just just purely speculation based on the run differentials, mind you.  Could be science fiction. Lol.  But yeah, when see a better cyclone materialize and bring low/moderate goods, it's been the 06 or 18z versions.  

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GGEM looks tasty for D9, too  -

but, actually...there's a proper telecon signal out between 250 and 300 hours.   Already, 1/3 of the GEF members carry an important system through the eastern mid latitude/coastal. The EPS at 00z was also decently closing mean isobaric layouts in that range.   The numeric telecon converging on 1/3 membership is a decent signal.   I like that one as an early look.  

Maybe we can notch the bed posts with a couple sub -index scaled event before than...

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