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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So I take it you’re calling for large + departures continuing beyond next weekend.  

While noreaster27 always predicts warmth regardless of the pattern shown, I don’t totally disagree this time. It doesn’t look cold. Just colder than the blowtorch we get in the next week but prob still above normal. But it’s a better looking pattern to try and get winter storms in here since we get more western ridging and there’s a lot of split flow showing up. 
 

We may get a little more actual cold after the 2nd week of Jan but that is a lot more speculative. A lot of guidance keeps retrograding the Canada ridge which then re-establishes a cross-polar look and more cold. But that would likely happen around or after 1/15ish. 

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

While noreaster27 always predicts warmth regardless of the pattern shown, I don’t totally disagree this time. It doesn’t look cold. Just colder than the blowtorch we get in the next week but prob still above normal. But it’s a better looking pattern to try and get winter storms in here since we get more western ridging and there’s a lot of split flow showing up. 
 

We may get a little more actual cold after the 2nd week of Jan but that is a lot more speculative. A lot of guidance keeps retrograding the Canada ridge which then re-establishes a cross-polar look and more cold. But that would likely happen around or after 1/15ish. 

Will, that was my point.  The end of the +10+ departures comes next weekend and I think my original post reflects that.   +3 in January is chilly.

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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Will, that was my point.  The end of the +10+ departures comes next weekend and I think my original post reflects that.   +3 in January is chilly.

Ok yeah I agree the double digit positive departures aren’t going to sustain. They usually don’t. It looks like a lot of those airmasses where the high is 37-43 but cold enough for snow when a storm system approaches. We kind of had a pattern with temps like that in Jan 2021 but we whiffed on most of the storm threats. However, that pattern was mostly a stale NAO block while this one does have western ridging which is more conductive to storm threats. 

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32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

While noreaster27 always predicts warmth regardless of the pattern shown, I don’t totally disagree this time. It doesn’t look cold. Just colder than the blowtorch we get in the next week but prob still above normal. But it’s a better looking pattern to try and get winter storms in here since we get more western ridging and there’s a lot of split flow showing up. 
 

We may get a little more actual cold after the 2nd week of Jan but that is a lot more speculative. A lot of guidance keeps retrograding the Canada ridge which then re-establishes a cross-polar look and more cold. But that would likely happen around or after 1/15ish. 

I prefer is gradual rather than a full on snap back.  We would get more winter that way

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Yeah the efforts to suppress Covid at civility scales ...world over, to varying degrees of success or not unfortunately means background immunity is uniquely set up for waves of 'normal' pathogens.    This was predicted by super computing 2 years ago.   

I have nasty cold going on.  Tested for C three times. Negative.  Thing is, I did catch a hold of omicron back last April - it wasn't as bad this piece of shit I'm dealing with now.   jesua

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Mild as far as the eye can see. As others have said doesn’t mean we can’t sneak in a snowstorm. 

CE5ED359-4E7C-4F37-80BE-616CAB8CED2A.png

Yeah climo at 850 starts going toward like -6 to -8 in this area so moderately AN temps in that layer aren’t a death knell for snow.

Euro guidance is also warmer than the others. If we can go split flow, then you end up with something more like +2 departures at 850 with a favorable storm track and that is doable. 

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I made a comparison GIF of the 6z vs 12z vs 18z runs… the 6z and 18z runs give the event a chance by stretching out the trough and lagging some energy behind. Once again, need some other guidance to show this happening for it to be believable. That is a pretty damn juicy mean for this far out though. Maybe the best all year?
25dbe523c0f77737b72fcdaa7c500111.gif


.

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Speaking of puke.. stomach flu has crushed me since last night .EPS keeps pushing back . Hope wrong , worry right . 

Ripping through my house, too.  There are 4 humans and 3 toilets and somehow there aren't enough places to puke.

---

38° off a high of 49°.

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21 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Ripping through my house, too.  There are 4 humans and 3 toilets and somehow there aren't enough places to puke.

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38° off a high of 49°.

I wish I could have thrown up in the toilet.. but when you’re sitting on it …. You lean over the pail . Only 2 of us have it 

No beer today 

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1 hour ago, Heisy said:

I made a comparison GIF of the 6z vs 12z vs 18z runs… the 6z and 18z runs give the event a chance by stretching out the trough and lagging some energy behind. Once again, need some other guidance to show this happening for it to be believable. That is a pretty damn juicy mean for this far out though. Maybe the best all year?
25dbe523c0f77737b72fcdaa7c500111.gif


.

I’ve noticed almost every 6z and 18z run have had the storm for 4-5 days now and the 00z and 12zs lose it. Weird. 

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