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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think some of you take the trolling a little too serious. It’s clearly a joke when you see some of the posts. I laugh, don’t take it seriously…and just whatever. 

For the most part yes. But there are a few who do it constantly, and intentionally and to push a narrative.  That’s where it rubs me wrong.  

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30 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What does the major thaw being in early January instead of late January do to your forecast? You stated cold and stormy early and thaw late. But we most likely thaw Jan 1-5/6.

It may mean that I am too warm in February....the big storm bombarding the block, which hastened the onset of the thaw, and the potential weakening of la nina may have my February call in some peril.

We'll see...but this earlier thaw actually aligns better with my 1/6-1/20 storm window.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So pretty strong guidance that we enjoy the warmth because by 1/6-7 it’s largely gone.

Still a lot of uncertainty beyond 1/5. GFS suite has been more aggressive on the cold…esp post 1/10.
 

Euro suite not as much…it’s been more of a stale polar airmass look which is kind of what we had for a while in Jan 2021 before the pattern flipped to colder/snowier in the Jan 25-Feb 15 timeframe. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Check against 1/6/07 too. I think that day cracked 70F across a lot of eastern MA. 
 

Or check New Years Day 1876….mud up to thy knickers as sleighing was not favorable that day.

 

1876 is still the only 70+ for CON in Jan. Not much for UA data though. :lol:

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

1876 is still the only 70+ for CON in Jan. Not much for UA data though. :lol:

I’d love to see some of the upper air maps from the 1870s/1880s…historically I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such a volatile 10-15 year period. You had some epic cold in the early 1870s and some epic warmth in late 1870s (I think 1877-78 is still the warmest winter in record for a large swath of upper plains to western Midwest…it’s like 5F warmer than 2nd place I think at MSP, lol)….then you oscillated between some epic warmth and cold in the 1880s…and we have March 1888 to top it off. :lol:

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