40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nope...Atlantic has no blocking. When the PV does migrated toward Davis Strait though later in the period, its pretty massive, so it extends far enough south to almost act as a defacto 50/50 low maybe displaced a bit north. We saw a similar type thing happen in Dec 2007....monster PV over there so it gave New England their own little area of confluence which helped out in all those SWFEs. This isn't a KU cookbook pattern....it's going to be a cold gradient pattern where we're at the mercy of individual scooter streaks, phasing, etc. They can be very prolific sometimes, but other times you just get frustrated (see Feb '89) My money is on a Dec 2007 type evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed John....1/29 is def a weak NNE deal on guidance....but we slowly get more favorable. 2/1 is still kind of up in the air (GFS keeps it snow on the 12z run, but it's not a big event), and then we have this arctic airmass behind it which would be a good antecedent starting point for anything threatening beyond 2/2. I'll be in the hospital from 2/1 until about 2/5....very dangerous period for a snow weenie to be away from his blog. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll be in the hospital from 2/1 until about 2/5....very dangerous period for a snow weenie to be away from his blog. Won't matter when it's Moose Scrotum, Maine getting the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Euro also looks interesting for 2/1. Snow to ice over interior. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Won't matter when it's Moose Scrotum, Maine getting the goods. Part of me is selfishly rooting Moose Scrotum on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro also looks interesting for 2/1. Snow to ice over interior. That is the day baby Reed is making his grand entrance. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is the day baby Reed is making his grand entrance. Timmer? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Trough ejection through the Lakes is tied to the mode positioning though. I'd think that 2-3-4th is vulnerable... The Euro's leaving the S stream behind and overbearing with the N/stream - it may be right, but I'm willing to bet that modulates in future runs. The CFS has 995 mb Miller A at this range tied to the same hemispheric scale mechanisms - the models is what it is... ( not a statement as to its veracity) but that's a meaty D8+ signal for a climate modulated product, just the same. Yeah yeah yeah the model has a modest cold bias do to needing/lacking updates but the air mass is deeply cold enough regardless of mode source to subsume any such CFS error. The last time we saw an index scaled/mass signal was the Buff bomb, btw - ... just to poke the hornets nest LOL. I don't expect cryo dystopian carnage but I like the signal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Timmer? Haha Not named after him, no...though I do like his work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Trough ejection through the Lakes is tied to the mode positioning though. I'd think that 2-3-4th is vulnerable... The Euro's leaving the S stream behind and overbearing with the N/stream - it may be right, but I'm willing to bet that modulates in future runs. The CFS has 995 mb Miller A at this range tied to the same hemispheric scale mechanisms - the models is what it is... ( not a statement as to its veracity) but that's meaty D8+ signal for a climate modulated product, just the same. Yeah yeah yeah the model has a modest cold do to needing/lacking updates but the air mass is deeply cold enough regardless of mode source to subsume any such CFS error. The last time we saw an index scaled/mass signal was the Buff bomb, btw - ... just to poke the hornets nest LOL. I don't expect cryo dystopian carnage but I like the signal. Watch that turn into this season's big dog, while I'm off at Holy Family trying to untangle umbilical cords. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Euro 10 day snow map for whatever it’s worth shows the NNE and central New England north of concord NH crushed in a gradient pattern with about 6-8” down to me and ray and wait for it ..less south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll be in the hospital from 2/1 until about 2/5....very dangerous period for a snow weenie to be away from his blog. Not this year it’s not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 27 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro 10 day snow map for whatever it’s worth shows the NNE and central New England north of concord NH crushed in a gradient pattern with about 6-8” down to me and ray and wait for it ..less south Shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Not this year it’s not Grade F- winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Grade F- winter so far I think for most of us that’s correct. The next 3 weeks determine if we can raise it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, weathafella said: I think for most of us that’s correct. The next 3 weeks determine if we can raise it.. Might get to an F!!.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 This month looks to destroy my grading system - the temp, mildest of 25 Januarys by far - merits F-minus. If we get snow in the forecast 8-12 range, that makes the month worth an A. Even with snow weighted 2x temp, the results would look inappropriate. (I'm not opposed to subjective adjustments. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 5 hours ago, tamarack said: This month looks to destroy my grading system - the temp, mildest of 25 Januarys by far - merits F-minus. If we get snow in the forecast 8-12 range, that makes the month worth an A. Even with snow weighted 2x temp, the results would look inappropriate. (I'm not opposed to subjective adjustments. ) What do you have so far for the month snowwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 5 hours ago, tamarack said: This month looks to destroy my grading system - the temp, mildest of 25 Januarys by far - merits F-minus. If we get snow in the forecast 8-12 range, that makes the month worth an A. Even with snow weighted 2x temp, the results would look inappropriate. (I'm not opposed to subjective adjustments. ) Some times, temps and snow are inversely related, that’s what has happened to you this January. Just goes to show ya don’t need it frigid to snow in NE. Above normal temp, and above normal snow for you. Nuances and timing is all ya need at peak climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 We had the first decent snowstorm here since early December and we don’t even get to enjoy it for more than 36 hours. Outside of last night I’ve barely been below freezing the past week. Current storm is going to end up a woefully underperforming, odd SWFE that did not even produce the low end forecast totals in SNE. Didn’t even get the obligatory transition to Pingers just went from snow to 32.5° rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: We had the first decent snowstorm here since early December and we don’t even get to enjoy it for more than 36 hours. Outside of last night I’ve barely been below freezing the past week. Current storm is going to end up a woefully underperforming, odd SWFE that did not even produce the low end forecast totals in SNE. Didn’t even get the obligatory transition to Pingers just went from snow to 32.5° rain. Modeling couldn’t get the snow right at 12 hrs out lol. The 80’s are back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Modeling couldn’t get the snow right at 12 hrs out lol. The 80’s are back. I remember the 80's being drier though. Not as many misery rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I remember the 80's being drier though. Not as many misery rains. Ahhh I dont know. Almost Every single snow forecast would bust low. Sure there were a few big ones, but vast majority of systems were always ruined some how some way. I used to say to my family and friends…”SNE is the land of the sabotaged snow storm.” And this year we are back to exactly that here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 good song for the SNE crew, truly an 80's winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Looks like KBOS may have its warmest Jan low temp on record. Low temp this month sitting at 23, and does not look likely to go lower until right around Feb 1. Previous record is 22 (2002, 2 days that month) and before that 18 in 1932 and 15 in 1953. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 12 hours ago, CoastalWx said: What do you have so far for the month snowwise? The 5.3" from the current event brings it to 28.3". Had I gone out to measure at 4 AM before the change to sleet, the month would be over 30". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Sun out in Nashua/38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 31 minutes ago, ariof said: Looks like KBOS may have its warmest Jan low temp on record. Low temp this month sitting at 23, and does not look likely to go lower until right around Feb 1. Previous record is 22 (2002, 2 days that month) and before that 18 in 1932 and 15 in 1953. I for one have not minded the torch relative to normal since after Xmas , or to be more specific the complete lack of very cold air that has followed on the backside of mostly rainers. That has made things at least comfortable to be outside and when we scored snow in Nashua it was generally a nice pasting at 30-33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Where are biggest January temp departures in the east , anyone have some numbers . I think it’s time to sort of celebrate the torch (ok maybe celebrate is a strong word) but at least gain perspective on any historical significance of what is going on so far this year I recall going up to N Conway in March of maybe 2012 or something when they had a string of days in upper 70’s and man ..I always root for snow but if it’s not gonna snow I’ll take mild and sunny over anything else that isn’t frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Jan so far, MHT 18.6" +9.0F CON 28" +8.8F Should go down as an AN snow month down into far N MA despite the inferno. Pretty wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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