January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s Maaaaahk fwom Webstah.

Oh ya that’s right. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh ya that’s right. 

Love the EMA accents. It’s pretty cool how diverse the lingo is across the country too. Anyway, carry on…

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know a woman that’s a mental health therapist . She said she has had so many more people coming to her this winter than ever. She actually asked if I had data on how many cloud days we’ve had .Add in all the Rainers to Mainers 

 

Interesting. I’ve heard the same from followers and friends that perceive this month to be too cloudy. It really does have an impact on people.

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It is what it is and they’ll be more winters or stretches within winter like this in our lifetime so we might as well take it on the chin and keep on. 
 

It’s perfectly within weenie reason to be frustrated, especially if your livelihood and hobbies have been affected, and I take no issue with pessimistic outlooks…persistence is a mofo…what is left though is what is in front of us and me personally, I’d rather spend the time that I do (tracking and posting) and enjoy figuring out when we’ll catch a break instead of perpetually whining about the season (not saying you are). I can find a hundred better ways to spend my free time if I was, but to each their own.
 

We’ll come out of this, we always do. 

Agree. It’s all good. 

I still think we have a legit window between now and around mid-February, followed by a torch to close Feb and a return to actual wintry conditions for at least part of March. 

Although I’ve been out on this particular season, I’m not at the point where I’m internally ready for spring.

The chances will come. I hope.

[mahk_webstah]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s Maaaaahk fwom Webstah.

I used to be Mark_in_Philly.  When we moved from Webster to Boscawen, I didn't want to give up the sound of "Mahk" and "Webstah"

[UnitedWx]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Moving forward

Keep up

How's that can looking LOL. must be pretty crushed by now!  But yeah, there's some nice stuff showing moving forward. Question is, will it stick more than yesterdays snow in the CT valley...

[Baroclinic Zone]

24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s not get to nit picky Bob. 

[ORH_wxman]

Hopefully that 2/1 threat doesn't cut...that's one that I feel we want to break our way if we're going to have a prolific 10-12 day period....if it cuts, then you still sweep the arctic airmass into here behind it, but you've now squandered another chance at a warning event.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully that 2/1 threat doesn't cut...that's one that I feel we want to break our way if we're going to have a prolific 10-12 day period....if it cuts, then you still sweep the arctic airmass into here behind it, but you've now squandered another chance at a warning event.

Sad state of affairs 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Sad state of affairs 

NNE looks good moving forward though. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully that 2/1 threat doesn't cut...that's one that I feel we want to break our way if we're going to have a prolific 10-12 day period....if it cuts, then you still sweep the arctic airmass into here behind it, but you've now squandered another chance at a warning event.

I could see the CMC happening. Pretty much cuts every threat to varying degrees, and far NNE cashes 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

NNE looks good moving forward though. 

Yeah they are probably going to slay.....I think we'll get a good system or two as well...but hopefully we don't have to wait until like 2/5. Would be nice to cash one in before that.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I could see the CMC happening. Pretty much cuts every threat to varying degrees, and far NNE cashes 

We all know You could see anything/and everything that’s bad happening…please, tell us all something we all don’t already know.  
 

And good thing the CMC blows chow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they are probably going to slay.....I think we'll get a good system or two as well...but hopefully we don't have to wait until like 2/5. Would be nice to cash one in before that.

What’s the Sunday night deal? Light snow to mix?

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What’s the Sunday night deal? Light snow to mix?

Hopefully just a fropa because it's south winds ahead of it.

[WxWatcher007]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they are probably going to slay.....I think we'll get a good system or two as well...but hopefully we don't have to wait until like 2/5. Would be nice to cash one in before that.

I do love that we’re keeping the parade of storms into February. We’re swinging all the way to the end and I do appreciate that.

[weathafella]

My guess for final winter totals of the big 4:

BOS:  31

BDL:  33

PVD:  29

ORH:  49

A comeback but falling well short of climo.

[ORH_wxman]

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What’s the Sunday night deal? Light snow to mix?

Doesn't look like much of anything...maybe a few flurries or showers? Looks prety warm int he BL unless that weak sfc low trends a bit south. Best lift is well north so I'm not expecting much precip in that. Maybe a tenth or two of QPF. NNE could see a band of 3-5"...esp up by powderfreak.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully that 2/1 threat doesn't cut...that's one that I feel we want to break our way if we're going to have a prolific 10-12 day period....if it cuts, then you still sweep the arctic airmass into here behind it, but you've now squandered another chance at a warning event.

There is something suggested in the 2nd to 7th range, though obviously we can all tell from the various recent guidance cycles ... there's some sense that it may be in the earlier part of that range.  

I don't dispute that, but anything before then ?  say 28-29-30 ... I suspect runs into problem with the -EPO response across the continent.  The EPS and GEFs means both show a coherent trough amplitude tendency out west, as the heights initially bulge into/over the Alaskan sector. That is not a-typical for d(-EPO)s, but more importantly it can mean cutters.

But after that.... the difference here is that there is a more tendency for a "progressive EPO" rather than the retrograde version - that is a critical observation in establishing risk canvas as we run through this ( probably...) lowest nadir this winter has to offer. ... That progressive behavior (modeled) -->  +PNA, and though the index isn't hugely changing modes, it is correcting significantly upwards in the numerical presentation/curves, indicating the weight is east bound ... This was true from multiple guidance sources, heading into the first week of February. 

The models are just starting to sniff this period of risk out as ANA -like miasmas moving parallel or over the eastern continent...

It's also possible we miss an index-scaled event in lieu of just a cold wave; it's an option on the table. 

[ORH_wxman]

Agreed John....1/29 is def a weak NNE deal on guidance....but we slowly get more favorable. 2/1 is still kind of up in the air (GFS keeps it snow on the 12z run, but it's not a big event), and then we have this arctic airmass behind it which would be a good antecedent starting point for anything threatening beyond 2/2.

[512high]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is something suggested in the 2nd to 7th range, though obviously we can all tell from the various recent guidance cycles ... there's some sense that it may be in the earlier part of that range.  

I don't dispute that, but anything before then ?  say 28-29-30 ... I suspect runs into problem with the -EPO response across the continent.  The EPS and GEFs means both show a coherent trough amplitude tendency out west, as the heights initially bulge into/over the Alaskan sector. That is not a-typical for d(-EPO)s, but more importantly it can mean cutters.

But after that.... the difference here is that there is a more tendency for a "progressive EPO" rather than the retrograde version - that is a critical observation in establishing risk canvas as we run through this ( probably...) lowest nadir this winter has to offer. ... That progressive behavior (modeled) -->  +PNA, and though the index isn't hugely changing modes, it is correcting significantly upwards in the numerical presentation/curves, indicating the weight is east bound ... This was true from multiple guidance sources, heading into the first week of February. 

The models are just starting to sniff this period of risk out as ANA -like miasmas moving parallel or over the eastern continent...

It's also possible we miss an index-scaled event in lieu of just a cold wave; it's an option on the table. 

Correct Feb. time frame you mentioned yesterday, hopefully signal will hold on.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed John....1/29 is def a weak NNE deal on guidance....but we slowly get more favorable. 2/1 is still kind of up in the air (GFS keeps it snow on the 12z run, but it's not a big event), and then we have this arctic airmass behind it which would be a good antecedent starting point for anything threatening beyond 2/2.

2/2 on the gfs would probably be the biggest event for most in SNE this year, and it might not even be close

[WxWatcher007]

Winter finally arrives in CT next week. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed John....1/29 is def a weak NNE deal on guidance....but we slowly get more favorable. 2/1 is still kind of up in the air (GFS keeps it snow on the 12z run, but it's not a big event), and then we have this arctic airmass behind it which would be a good antecedent starting point for anything threatening beyond 2/2.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thanks Luke

[Typhoon Tip]

Just to be clear - I don't mean to lower guard on event profiles prior to Feb 2nd, out of hand, either. 

Just that there is risk they'll turn polarward early, given the initial -EPO footprint across the continent. 

Having said that... we should also elucidate that the 850 mb layout is vastly different after tomorrows event... spanning much of the continental space, E of the Rockies and N of about ~ 35 deg lat.   There is also modestly improved confluence if not explicitly in guidance dailies... implied in this circulation mode.   What that means is that ... a cutter may not profile quite the same as they have over recent weeks.  

Best for winter enthusiasts would be to keep those waves flatter and less amplified ( obviously...)

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Is there any blocking what so ever in sight /50/50 Davis straits ridging 

 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is there any blocking what so ever in sight /50/50 Davis straits ridging 

 

Nope...Atlantic has no blocking. When the PV does migrated toward Davis Strait though later in the period, its pretty massive, so it extends far enough south to almost act as a defacto 50/50 low maybe displaced a bit north. We saw a similar type thing happen in Dec 2007....monster PV over there so it gave New England their own little area of confluence which helped out in all those SWFEs.

This isn't a KU cookbook pattern....it's going to be a cold gradient pattern where we're at the mercy of individual scooter streaks, phasing, etc. They can be very prolific sometimes, but other times you just get frustrated (see Feb '89)

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nope...Atlantic has no blocking. When the PV does migrated toward Davis Strait though later in the period, its pretty massive, so it extends far enough south to almost act as a defacto 50/50 low maybe displaced a bit north. We saw a similar type thing happen in Dec 2007....monster PV over there so it gave New England their own little area of confluence which helped out in all those SWFEs.

This isn't a KU cookbook pattern....it's going to be a cold gradient pattern where we're at the mercy of individual scooter streaks, phasing, etc. They can be very prolific sometimes, but other times you just get frustrated (see Feb '89)

 

I hope we get a ice storm for the history books 

[MarkO]

Flurries in Lowell, 36.5/29

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I hope we get a ice storm for the history books 

Funny you said that....GGEM tries it this run. This is def a pattern that could produce a legit ice storm. They are not easy to get, but this is the type of pattern you want to maximize the odds.