alex Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 This week definitely hasn’t felt like a disaster here. It’s now the 6th day in a row with snow (sand-like snowfall tonight after very fluffy stuff in the past few days) with a winter storm watch for 6-12” of additional snow. Skiing is amazing, and they’re getting ready to open the areas that are still closed; should be about fully open by the weekend. Glade skiing has been awesome. Give me a few more weeks of this and I’ll be happy to switch to spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Great severe in SE TX today. Wish we were there 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Yuck...wish the Euro woulda gone ahead and just canceled that run - Lamar Hamlin run... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Absolutely dumping dendrites +SN. Great squall moving through with the weak FROPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Absolutely dumping dendrites +SN. Great squall moving through with the weak FROPA. Setting you up for s great snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 The 18z GFS on day 12 sums up the futility of this winter for SNE. A system going over or just E of the benchmark will still produce rain and fz rn and little snow. Just 24 hrs ago it was showing single digit temps. Toss anything the GFS spits out beyond 48 hours. It's wheelhouse is even worse than the NAM now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 GFS still has the cold shot beginning of Feb but not the -20s it was showing the other day. Would like to see that happen, that's about as cold as we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yuck...wish the Euro woulda gone ahead and just canceled that run - Lamar Hamlin run... I didn’t hate that run…decent overrunning potential shown there even if it didn’t crush us verbatim on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Lack of cold is amazing considering how cold it is literally along the border 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The 18z GFS on day 12 sums up the futility of this winter for SNE. A system going over or just E of the benchmark will still produce rain and fz rn and little snow. Just 24 hrs ago it was showing single digit temps. Toss anything the GFS spits out beyond 48 hours. It's wheelhouse is even worse than the NAM now. I’d say that about all the models lately. Euro blows too, can’t trust that pos beyond 2 or 3 days either. But day 12…c’mon? You should know that isn’t reasonable to expect things to hold from 12 days out…no matter what it shows-good or bad. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’d say that about all the models lately. Euro blows too, can’t trust that pos beyond 2 or 3 days either. But day 12…c’mon? You should know that isn’t reasonable to expect things to hold from 12 days out…no matter what it shows-good or bad. My main point was in showing how even a storm E of the benchmark sums up our winter here in SNE, irrespective of the day. The GFS can't hold things it shows even 6 days out. We've seen that countless times this winter. Btw, it was but a week or so ago that many here had latched onto a 9-10 days out blizzard the Euro and CMC were showing for SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Unless these big troughs keep dumping west. That'll definitely make the SE ridge stronger and even your area wouldn't be spared like 12z Euro shows What a disaster this winter has become I'm referring to the posted image. The western trough isn't that deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 24 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: My main point was in showing how even a storm E of the benchmark sums up our winter here in SNE, irrespective of the day. The GFS can't hold things it shows even 6 days out. We've seen that countless times this winter. Btw, it was but a week or so ago that many here had latched onto a 9-10 days out blizzard the Euro and CMC were showing for SNE. Who latched on? Lol. Nobody did. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 How much more can we kick the can? Is there anything remotely redeeming on the horizon in SNE? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 I still have no issues with what I see going forward. In fact the +NAO gets massive and may even help us. Your gonna have a cold Canada to tap into. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I still have no issues with what I see going forward. In fact the +NAO gets massive and may even help us. Your gonna have a cold Canada to tap into. not sure why there’s so much despair here over a cold gradient pattern. makes no sense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Who latched on? Lol. Nobody did. There were some throwing tantrums in here a while ago I remember. I had to keep telling them that 1/23 and 1/25 looked pretty cruddy. There’s no doubt the core of the cold in the pattern change has been delayed some, but the end has been pushed back too. Once that PV wobbles into favorable position, we get arctic cold and likely several rolls of the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Who latched on? Lol. Nobody did. Do you want to go back and look at all the snow maps posted from the Euro and the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: not sure why there’s so much despair here over a cold gradient pattern. makes no sense Desperation sets in after a while I think for some. It clouds judgement and then you have emotional hedging too…they might sort of think the pattern is actually fine, but it’s still not super easy to snow even in good patterns (esp southern zones near water), and if it doesn’t this time, it feels like winter is totally shot…so best to expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised if it pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Do you want to go back and look at all the snow maps posted from the Euro and the EPS? There’s a difference between posting it for shits and giggles vs being “all in.” I think most on here get that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There were some throwing tantrums in here a while ago I remember. I had to keep telling them that 1/23 and 1/25 looked pretty cruddy. There’s no doubt the core of the cold in the pattern change has been delayed some, but the end has been pushed back too. Once that PV wobbles into favorable position, we get arctic cold and likely several rolls of the dice. This is a good point. The “end” of this imo as well has been pushed back from what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 I had tomorrow’s system in mind when I Hamlin-ed the Euro run. There’s nothing specifically uninspiring with it beyond that. Regardless of any particular model’s present peregrinations … the GEFs derived telecon spread suggests a significant event might materialize between the 2nd and 7th of Feb 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Posted myself several days ago that the 26th and 27th is really when 850 mbar changing of the guard happens across the entire continent. Problem with sniffing out a pattern change 2 1/2 weeks ahead is that it’s an eternity of impatience waiting for that to happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Setting you up for s great snow storm I don’t know. BTV doesn’t seem overly enthusiastic with totals. They’re saying we mix. Wednesday Night Snow before midnight, then snow and sleet likely between midnight and 4am, then a chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 4am. The snow and sleet could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 30 by 5am. Southeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday A chance of snow before 7am, then a chance of snow showers after 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 37. South wind 7 to 11 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Posted myself several days ago that the 26th and 27th is really when 850 mbar changing of the guard happens across the entire continent. Problem with sniffing out a pattern change 2 1/2 weeks ahead is that it’s an eternity of impatience waiting for that to happen. Ya not getting the 2-5” treats down here has made us very impatient down south. Let’s see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, mreaves said: I don’t know. BTV doesn’t seem overly enthusiastic with totals. They’re saying we mix. Wednesday Night Snow before midnight, then snow and sleet likely between midnight and 4am, then a chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 4am. The snow and sleet could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 30 by 5am. Southeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday A chance of snow before 7am, then a chance of snow showers after 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 37. South wind 7 to 11 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. PF Point and click is 12 to 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 hours ago, alex said: This week definitely hasn’t felt like a disaster here. It’s now the 6th day in a row with snow (sand-like snowfall tonight after very fluffy stuff in the past few days) with a winter storm watch for 6-12” of additional snow. Skiing is amazing, and they’re getting ready to open the areas that are still closed; should be about fully open by the weekend. Glade skiing has been awesome. Give me a few more weeks of this and I’ll be happy to switch to spring. You live in an elevated location in interior NNE. Something would have to go terribly wrong for you to get skunked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 18 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya not getting the 2-5” treats down here has made us very impatient down south. Let’s see what happens. Just got ridiculously serendipitously lucky up here with this most recent thing… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You live in an elevated location in interior NNE. Something would have to go terribly wrong for you to get skunked The funny thing is it has gone terribly wrong for them there many times, while we had HECS after HECS in SNE. So they’ve been skunked plenty too over the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: PF Point and click is 12 to 18 on the mountain and town a foot plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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