January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, jbenedet said:

It's really funny to me people looking out 10 days plus using NWP, when the fundamental underpinning to NWP is CHAOS THEORY.

What that means is, if you get a detailed forecast right, out 10 days+, it was a result of luck, and not any skill. And so the next time you attempt to use the same methodology (it worked last time!), and we get a completely different result, you're flummoxed. Worse, still, you're not gaining skill either. 

...or you can sit idly and pass judgement on those who do endeavor a seasonal effort, while refusing to accept any accountability for terrible medium range forecasts.

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Congrats Buffalo?  

Lol. It's been painful chatting with the Buffalo guys and their excitement of already hitting 100 inches on the season...while here in CNY, we have yet again started another season well below normal and highly doubt getting anywhere close to normal.

[jbenedet]

@40/70 Benchmark

That is a forecast. Some details to deduce skill. I can respect that, even if I disagree with the methodology. Analogs have value, but at a very high level. Details, likely still to be burnt.

 

 

[weathafella]

4 hours ago, kdxken said:

Winter classic looks to be about as warm as the Red Sox home opener.

Boston should be so lucky in early April…..

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Lol. It's been painful chatting with the Buffalo guys and their excitement of already hitting 100 inches on the season...while here in CNY, we have yet again started another season well below normal and highly doubt getting anywhere close to normal.

a reoccurring theme there much like for SNE

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Lol. It's been painful chatting with the Buffalo guys and their excitement of already hitting 100 inches on the season...while here in CNY, we have yet again started another season well below normal and highly doubt getting anywhere close to normal.

Absolutely extraordinary out there. Places like Buffalo and Watertown getting a snow bonanza while Rochester and Sizzlecuse are light years behind. Though after the catastrophic event in Buffalo, many are probably done emotionally with this season.

Speaking of, I saw the BUF recorded what may be a record for low elevation in sustained blizzard conditions. What’s the record for a place like BOS/BDL/NYC @ORH_wxman?

[RDRY]

At least with the GFS, there is an unmistakable difference between on- and off-hour runs.

[MJOatleast7]

Contrary to what it looks like, someone IS actually in charge of this upcoming period and ultimately answerable for keeping it on track:

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Encountered several rabbits during my dog's pre-dawn walk.  December of yore???

I saw them at the coldest point last weekend and all of last winter.  I don’t remember them in yore…

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

a reoccurring theme there much like for SNE

Yup. I really think the WARM Atlantic waters combined with La Nina have especially been terrible for our winters. SW flow...which Buffalo thrives on for lake effect. Here? Not at all.

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Absolutely extraordinary out there. Places like Buffalo and Watertown getting a snow bonanza while Rochester and Sizzlecuse are light years behind. Though after the catastrophic event in Buffalo, many are probably done emotionally with this season.

Speaking of, I saw the BUF recorded what may be a record for low elevation in sustained blizzard conditions. What’s the record for a place like BOS/BDL/NYC @ORH_wxman?

Rochester still has yet to have the ground completely covered!

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@40/70 Benchmark

That is a forecast. Some details to deduce skill. I can respect that, even if I disagree with the methodology. Analogs have value, but at a very high level. Details, likely still to be burnt.

 

 

Clearly there are limitations, yes....but I don't think its fair to deprive anyone of credit when it works. When it doesn't, just own up and explain what went wrong. Its only by doing this that skill will get any better at longer ranges.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yup. I really think the WARM Atlantic waters combined with La Nina have especially been terrible for our winters. SW flow...which Buffalo thrives on for lake effect. Here? Not at all.

Rochester still has yet to have the ground completely covered!

An uncle lived in Rochester for many years. Winters are totally different now than when he lived in Rochester.

[jbenedet]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

...or you can sit idly and pass judgement on those who do endeavor a seasonal effort, while refusing to accept any accountability for terrible medium range forecasts.

Nah there's a big difference between me and you. One of us is learning the inherent limitations of NWP (in some cases the hard way), while the other still pours their heart and soul into something that NWP was always fundamentally unequipped for. 

The devil is in the details. And we all should foremost respect that, as weather enthusiasts and meteorologists. If we don't the field loses credibility. 

It's not what you don't know that gets you in trouble; it's what you think you know that just aint so... (Every 10+ day detailed forecast)

[ORH_wxman]

Dissenting points of view are definitely welcome. But they will be mocked mercilessly if they don’t have much substance or science to it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Nah there's a big difference between me and you. One of us is learning the inherent limitations of NWP (in some cases the hard way), while the other still pours their heart and soul into something that NWP was always fundamentally unequipped for. 

The devil is in the details. And we all should foremost respect that, as weather enthusiasts and meteorologists.

It's not what you don't know that gets you in trouble; it's what you think you know that just aint so... (Every 10+ day detailed forecast)

I would argue that if you aren't doing the latter, then perhaps you're in the wrong field. But I agree about the danger of what you think you know....been learning that the hard way past several years of seasonals.

There are ways to try to compensate for what is lacking with respect to analogs...one thing I have begun doing is focusing more on what the weather has actually been doing as we progress through summer and into the fall. I think the unknown part is fun.

I wish I was as skilled at math as you and the other mets are....I just couldn't hack that part....not close.

[CoastalWx]

What’s wrong with giving month by month details using seasonal guidance, analogs, and how Fall is progressing? It’s part fun and part science based. To me, that is a lot more science based than doing a CPC blanket warm SE/cool NW in a 3 month composite. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What’s wrong with giving month by month details using seasonal guidance, analogs, and how Fall is progressing? It’s part fun and part science based. To me, that is a lot more science based than doing a CPC blanket warm SE/cool NW in a 3 month composite. 

100%....I am better than CPC at seasonal forecasting, and its not close. Its not meant to sound arrogant. Its a testament to how haphazard their effort is. I think there is far too large of a percentage of the industry that is resigned to inferiority with respect to seasonal forecasting....some of which is likely due to an aversion to the volume of work that it will take to improve.

Thank god the healthcare industry doesn't have this mindset....people would still be dying from polio, never mind making strides towards a cure for cancer.

[ineedsnow]

atleast some of the 12z GEFS members look good so far

[jbenedet]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would argue that if you aren't doing the latter, then perhaps you're in the wrong field.

There are ways try to try to compensate for what is lacking with respect to analogs...one thing I have begun doing is focusing more on what the weather has actually been doing  as we progress through summer and into the fall. I think the unknown part if fun.

I wish I was as skilled at math as you and the other mets are....I just couldn't hack that part....not close.

Liebniz's chaos theory distills so much. Just running a model with slightly different initial conditions; it's mind blowing the first time you see it. Especially when taken in consideration with the inherent error associated with measurement and interpolation.

I believe there are complementary ways to improve weather forecasting accuracy but the bulk of short term "growth" is outside of NWP.

NWP will see further improvements as we get more data (measurements over time and throughout the globe at different levels of the atmosphere); and find better ways to incorporate this information continuously into weather models. But this is an under-taking much bigger than one person, which is why I say the individual forecaster should look outside of NWP to improve forecast skill.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Liebniz's chaos theory distills so much. Just running a model with slightly different initial conditions; it's mind blowing the first time you see it. Especially when taken in consideration with the inherent error associated with measurement and interpolation.

I believe there are complementary ways to improve weather forecasting accuracy but the bulk of short term "growth" is outside of NWP.

NWP will see further improvements as we get more data (measurements over time and throughout the globe at different levels of the atmosphere); and find better ways to incorporate this information continuously into weather models. But this is an under-taking much bigger than one person, which is why I say the individual forecast should look outside of NWP to improve forecast skill.

You are probably right with respect to shorter term...I am speaking more of seasonal.

[UnitedWx]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

atleast some of the 12z GEFS members look good so far

Looks like George didn't have time to personally run the GFS at 12Z

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are probably right with respect to shorter term...I speaking more of seasonal.

Forecasting a pattern and forecasting specific storms threats, etc are definitely two different things. The Dec 9-25 period is a good illustration. The general pattern was forecasted quite well. I’ve posted the composite.
 

The individual storm threats were a total nightmare to forecast during that period. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Forecasting a pattern and forecasting specific storms threats, etc are definitely two different things. The Dec 9-25 period is a good illustration. The general pattern was forecasted quite well. I’ve posted the composite.
 

The individual storm threats were a total nightmare to forecast during that period. 

Definite room for improvement with respect to seasonal forecasts. I agree that there is a bit more of a wall regarding shorter term.

[KTBFFH1905]

46 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Lol. It's been painful chatting with the Buffalo guys and their excitement of already hitting 100 inches on the season...while here in CNY, we have yet again started another season well below normal and highly doubt getting anywhere close to normal.

First time I have ever heard my Uncle who is up in North Tonawanda and a big snow lover say "Enough is enough". He as well is over 100 inches. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is going to be hell to pay this month, and while it may not be paid in (insert weenie)'s backyard, someone will pay it.

Glad to hear you are sticking to your guns on something big coming later in January. Its going to end up going down as a warm month because of how mild the first 10 days are expected to be, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have any snow chances. What’s interesting is your analogs actually are a little warmer than average for Jan despite a lot of them being snowy. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

Glad to hear you are sticking to your guns on something big coming later in January. Its going to end up going down as a warm month because of how mild the first 10 days are expected to be, but that doesn’t mean we won’t have any snow chances. What’s interesting is your analogs actually are a little warmer than average for Jan despite a lot of them being snowy. 

Yea, I've never expected a bitter cold month.

[CoastalWx]

So it will actually turn out that post 1/5 is when we see changes. At least that didn’t get pushed to 1/15.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was plenty specific enough:

January 2023 Outlook

January Analogs:1971, 1976, 1985, 1986,1996 2011, 2014, 2021, 2022

January is like to be consistent with climatology in that it will be the most consistently fierce month in that there is likely to be "storms and rumor of storms", to quote an old and wise weather weenie. It was mentioned that opportunities for a coupling of EPO/PNA style blocking with NAO blocking would be scarce this season, but if it is to occur, it will be this month, as evidenced by the January 2023 forecast H5 composite:

The recovery of  the PNA from the RNA month of December is also evident in the ECMWF forecast:

 

Note the opportunity for cross polar flow and what will at times be frigid conditions. This will also be a month of great flux, which will likely couple with well above average N hemispheric SSTs and a surplus of water vapor owed to the submarine eruption of Hunga Tonga last January help to facilitate a large scale and perhaps generation storm opportunity. This event will be the signature storm of the season, and will have the potential to cripple travel over a widespread area for a time in a window between approximately January 6th-20th

This is the month that the mid Atlantic likely receives the bulk of its seasonal snowfall. January will be the inverse of December in that it will be biased more wintery earlier, but blocking should relinquish its grip and it should modify with flooding threats possible during a major thaw.

 

January 2023 Forecast Temp Anomalies:

 

1951-2010:

 

1991-2020:

 

 

January 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies:
 

1951-2010:

 

1991-2020:

 

It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composites, but also even during the season in general given the unique circumstances surrounding Hunga Tonga.

What does the major thaw being in early January instead of late January do to your forecast? You stated cold and stormy early and thaw late. But we most likely thaw Jan 1-5/6.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I am not sure why you have such a problem with dissenting points of view....

I absolutely don’t have a problem with dissenting points of view …AT ALL. 
 

I do have a problem, a BIG ONE, with trolling.
 

I explained in detail, about how the pattern did a complete 180 from early November, and then the change of the pattern to very supportive for winter weather just last week.  Just because it didn’t work out for us here in SNE, didn’t mean the pattern did not change. But that’s what the trolls were saying, and you were right in there with them, supporting them because we did not get snow here.  That’s where I have a problem. 
 

And as Will said, there’s gonna be pushback when trolls don’t support their trolling ideas with anything of substance ….but go on persistence forecasting, or green grass in the town center, with geese hanging out and fighting with the crows.
I mean c’mon already.  
 

I absolutely agree that it’s been a dud so far…but this happens many times in December, we know this. And it may stay a dud,(however I really don’t think so), but that’s far from a certainty, especially only a week in to this winter season in late December. 
 

I hope that clears things up on where I stand.  I don’t have an issue with you or anybody. I just can’t stand the trolling, and persistent style of forecasting(it’s been bad so thus it will remain bad idea), with the trolling combined.
 

 If modeling doesn’t look good, by all means say it. But when it looks better or good, say that too. And don’t twist things to fit a specific narrative. 

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Forecasting a pattern and forecasting specific storms threats, etc are definitely two different things. The Dec 9-25 period is a good illustration. The general pattern was forecasted quite well. I’ve posted the composite.
 

The individual storm threats were a total nightmare to forecast during that period. 

We really only had two at that.    There's going to be interpretation but we'd done better in less 'favorable' looking scaffolding.  You know ...you get into that rare scenario where it seems to find a way to snow.  Basically...you need a little fractal love, too.    

Both the events in that period were handled as occurrence.  It just didn't parlay in favor of regional hopes and dreams to put it nicely.