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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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6 hours ago, eduggs said:

Not happening. NYC and surrounding suburbs are destined for their 17th consecutive winter rain event without any measurable snowfall by the end of this run. 

So we have another QgOmega with you now too? Sad. Glad everybody is so smug, and knows the future at 16 days out.  Pegged you as smarter than that. 

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16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So we have another QgOmega with you now too? Sad. Glad everybody is so smug, and knows the future at 16 days out.  Pegged you as smarter than that. 

I like early Feb. Cold bleeding south and clashing with SE ridge. Favorable snow climo and MJO 3

If it's gonna snow this season that would be the time. We had our big snowstorm 2 years ago around that time

Brief window though. Pattern goes to shit after the 7th. 

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14 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

To an extent I agree. I've just seen a few too many quote it's never going to snow again because of CC"  posts this year. I understand people are slightly irritated but sometimes it goes too far

it is because people get too emotionally involved with something(weather) that they have no control over. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I like early Feb. Cold bleeding south and clashing with SE ridge. Favorable snow climo and MJO 3

If it's gonna snow this season that would be the time. We had our big snowstorm 2 years ago around that time

Brief window though. Pattern goes to shit after the 7th. 

I wouldn’t be so sure after the 7th…

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

what arctic air?  temps look warm on saturday and sunday

gfs_T2m_neus_19.png

gfs_T2m_neus_23.png

Yeah...it's trended warmer the past few days, but the goofus is still showing some nighttime rad potential over the deep, fresh pack up here and lows Fri & Sat morning near 0F. I've been trying to get to Feb without a low colder than 9F. We'll see.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah...it's trended warmer the past few days, but the goofus is still showing some nighttime rad potential over the deep, fresh pack up here and lows Fri & Sat morning near 0F. I've been trying to get to Feb without a low colder than 9F. We'll see.

yes fully agree with good rad if we clear out, deep snowpack is over much of the area.  Next week finally looks like some real cold.  Lakes and ice castles desperately need it.

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8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That’s not arctic air , he doesn’t live in Northern Maine . Do you know where northfield nh is roughly on a map .

Normal winter radiating nites in his spot have been so few , you mine as well call it arctic 

Subarctic...cP...whatever. I never said it was a brutal shot. But if the GFS 2m temps verify we'd probably pull a day or two BN. But I could see where the mins fail and it ends up near normal or slightly above.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The op runs show you how it could be really good or really suck. Just no way to know. I like the overall look though so we’ll roll the dice. 

Yeah it’s one of those classic gradient looks where it could be quite prolific if nuances/areas of confluence break right for us…and if they don’t, it could be a real 1980s pattern with cutter and then arctic cold shots behind them. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I wouldn’t be so sure after the 7th…

Weeklies are garbage after that. MJO turns to crap. 

I wouldn't doubt a record warm period in mid Feb. I do think cold/snow will return end of Feb/early March. 

Hopefully we take advantage of those good periods. SNE and points north has better odds of course as anyone further south is at the mercy of the SE ridge.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Wish we could avoid the arctic air this weekend. I want one of my warmest Jans on record to go down as snowy. 

This is like the opposite of that January a few years ago that @powderfreak always laments.  Brutal cold only broken up by rainstorms.  We ended up with BN temps, AN precip and BN snow.  A lousy trifecta.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

2014, ha.

That was a nightmare month up there. I remember Scooter had like 15” from one of the storms and you were posting a crust of like 2” glacier that had refrozen after a massive cutter. 
 

The silver lining was that it didn’t last into February. Pattern flipped and NNE got annihilated the rest of the winter. Went up to Sunday River around the equinox in March that year and they must’ve had 45”+ on the level where we were staying. Up at the mountain it was even more than that. 

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48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a nightmare month up there. I remember Scooter had like 15” from one of the storms and you were posting a crust of like 2” glacier that had refrozen after a massive cutter. 
 

The silver lining was that it didn’t last into February. Pattern flipped and NNE got annihilated the rest of the winter. Went up to Sunday River around the equinox in March that year and they must’ve had 45”+ on the level where we were staying. Up at the mountain it was even more than that. 

Yeah that season recovered nicely in Feb/March with big snowpack in the mtns.

I have a photo somewhere of my yard, like 6" of standing water on top of a crusty 2-3" of icepack... I had a lake in the yard.  It ended up freezing into like a yellowish color too.  It looked disgusting :lol:.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Weeklies are garbage after that. MJO turns to crap. 

I wouldn't doubt a record warm period in mid Feb. I do think cold/snow will return end of Feb/early March. 

Hopefully we take advantage of those good periods. SNE and points north has better odds of course as anyone further south is at the mercy of the SE ridge.

Same page.

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