OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I have 4.5 seasons of snowfall at my current location, and January 2023 (20.3") has now moved into 3rd biggest month behind Decembers 2019 (25.3") and 2020 (25.5"), edging out January 2022 today. I know March 2018 was bigger (something on the order of 30+) but I didn't have a full season there so I didn't start tracking until the next winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ..but what evidence suggests it isn't permanent?... And what evidence does? Climate changes, it has been for millennia. Now can you take it to the proper thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Models look like they have around 2-5" of new snow from the Weds system here. Kinda hard to take out the remainder of today's totals but those are my goalposts for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: It would affect snow rates and ptype and all that more... That's just dope slap arithmetic argument there ... Yeah, I wonder. Since water is 4 times more proficient at storing heat than the atmosphere above, it doesn't seem varying the water by 5 F would matter ... mm I'm just not sure it matters hugely when 45 is still a relative inferno either way. It's like being 10 miles over the line, and then thinking 5 miles going back puts back over the line. It doesn't ... you still have room to spare - that's why all this shit is bear to grasp sometimes because we human tend to put specific boundaries and value compartments on aspects of nature that really require gradation in every dimension ..as well as threshold conceptualization. And the thresholds themselves are blurred lines with all the noisy crap that goes on. By the way folks, re the CC and models debate... The only model CC would "influence" would be the CFS model, most likely. That model's physicality takes into consideration the environmental CO2, but, it is integrating the 1988 parts per unit volume concentration. I just happen to know that... so I Googled and sure enough...there is a CPC paper out there that specifically focus on the question of C02 being tied to anthropomorphic forcing and it's role on perceived biases in the running of the Climate Forecast System model. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/vddoolpubs/AMS_JWAF_2009_965-973_trendglobalwarmingCFSv1.pdf I can't find any specific aspect like this related to the physics of like the UKMET Euro or GFS..etc... I don't believe those models care. I may be wrong ? Chris might know. I always thought these latter tools were thermodynamic and geo-physical feature feed-backs after the fact of chemistry. That’s really good to know. I often look at the CFS to try and get an idea of what to expect in the long range. I’m not going to be doing that anymore, any model that doesn’t account for climate change is completely useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Models look like they have around 2-5" of new snow from the Weds system here. Kinda hard to take out the remainder of today's totals but those are my goalposts for now Euro actually hit CT solid with advisory snows better than an E Ma with the first thump Wednesday pm and then usual suspects from monads to Concord NH north cash in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, UnitedWx said: It's not that some don't accept it. It's instantly blaming the current yearly weather pattern on it. "It didn't snow this year so it's climate change." None of us know how much it's really affecting the weather pattern that we are in. We could just as easily have above normal snow Winters as we've had the last couple decades. This has happened before, and it will happen again Honestly even some of the epic winters we’ve had like 2015 you can argue climate change played a big role in. While the world as a whole is warming, oceans are warming more rapidly. When you get an extremely favorable pattern like Feb 2015, the Atlantic furnace can help beef up storms leading to more snow. When the pattern is unfavorable like this year and there is no cold air to be found, that same furnace Atlantic is gonna hurt us in marginal setups. Climate change did not make this winter suck, it likely would have sucked decades ago with this same pattern. However, I do think some of those marginal events might have broken our way so this winter likely would not have been as bad. It’s a double edged sword, with more extreme winters snow total wise on both ends of the spectrum (long term this will likely be biased towards less average snow, which is already starting to happen in more marginal climates like DC). That’s just talking about snow totals though, when it comes to things like snowpack as the average temperature increases it gets harder to maintain a snowpack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro actually hit CT solid with advisory snows better than an E Ma with the first thump Wednesday pm and then usual suspects from monads to Concord NH north cash in There’s almost two different WAA precip batches…the first initial one is pretty good from like N NJ to S CT and it’s weakening as it lifts north from there and then another reorganizes about 8 hours later but by that point, we’re starting to warm aloft so that batch is mainly for N of MA/NH border. We got caught in between….hopefully that doesn’t happen but some models have shown that. 18z NAM actually got us decent with the initial band. Didn’t weaken it as fast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Is there any real chance the system itself trends 30-50 M further S with warning snows, either via confluence , weaker system , etc Im pretty satisfied it will be a net gainer @ Sunapee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is there any real chance the system itself trends 30-50 M further S with warning snows, either via confluence , weaker system , etc Im pretty satisfied it will be a net gainer @ Sunapee I doubt it trends much…it’s been amazingly consistent for days (I know Tip posted something similar). But small nuances could help…if we can get just a little more vort energy on the eastern flank of that trough, it would really help that WCB be more intense and perhaps also nudge the secondary reflection a little deeper which would lock in lower level cold more efficiently. We’re not talking drastic changes but it could be like the difference between 2” and then rain with temps getting to 40-43F in a place like Bedford versus 5” and temps never really getting above 35F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro actually hit CT solid with advisory snows better than an E Ma with the first thump Wednesday pm and then usual suspects from monads to Concord NH north cash in That happens a lot in colder SWFE . SW CT often gets into these early heavy bands and then they weaken a bit as they move NE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That happens a lot in colder SWFE . SW CT often gets into these early heavy bands and then they weaken a bit as they move NE . We have a lot of ground to make up down here....hopefully we can grab a few before the rain, geeze we may be able to double our season total before the rain moves in....we shall see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: We have a lot of ground to make up down here....hopefully we can grab a few before the rain, geeze we may be able to double our season total before the rain moves in....we shall see I guess Unless something drastic changes .. I think you’re area is in good shape for 2-4”.. shouldn’t get above 35-38 there even when it’s raining 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 there's just no way we don't rain at the end right? temps look toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 No thread for Wednesday? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: .but it is affecting the type of the weather the patterns produce.. To an extent I agree. I've just seen a few too many quote it's never going to snow again because of CC" posts this year. I understand people are slightly irritated but sometimes it goes too far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: No thread for Wednesday? For up here it would be "The Trifecta Storm", but not for most of you lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, DJln491 said: there's just no way we don't rain at the end right? temps look toasty Im fully expecting a change to rain but hoping that it can be like 36 and rain instead of 45 and rain, the former won’t eat away at the snowpack as much. The Euro has a low in southern Vermont which isn’t ideal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 BOX has HFD to BOS getting into the 50’s. I will sell that hard . Typically 40’s get up to about IJD to TBlizz and then crash back SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 42 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: For up here it would be "The Trifecta Storm", but not for most of you lol. Ez mahk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 GFS shutting down the east coast at 234. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Got a thread going for 1/25 event It's been a good week for me in the snow department 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, RDRY said: GFS shutting down the east coast at 234. strung out multi-low pos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I still feel/suggest the first few days of February may host something significant... Whatever materializes has a better canvas of probability for cold profile during its life cycle. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 24 minutes ago, RDRY said: GFS shutting down the east coast at 234. Made me look. I was not going to look. Miller A type situation with a low out of the GOM. What could go wrong? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: I have 4.5 seasons of snowfall at my current location, and January 2023 (20.3") has now moved into 3rd biggest month behind Decembers 2019 (25.3") and 2020 (25.5"), edging out January 2022 today. I know March 2018 was bigger (something on the order of 30+) but I didn't have a full season there so I didn't start tracking until the next winter. This month will finish between 9 and 10° AN, about 2° above our 2nd mildest January in 2006, and snow is already 3"+ above average. Jan 2006 was 5" AN though that month had rain with almost every event and nothing bigger than 5.9" - that month's 11" max depth is the most pitiful mark for any winter here while we've got 24" at the stake with more to come (unless the forecast has a really radical change). December was 4"+ AN for snow and 5° AN - I can't recall having 2 significantly mild months with AN snow in both. NNE bonus. Makes up for January 2014, which was 3.5° BN with 120% precip that produced 27% of average snowfall. Its snow also ranked 129th of 130 Januarys at the Farmington co-op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Any final snow totals for CT, big or small, a couple or nothing, trace or a tenth, ill take em TIA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Any final snow totals for CT, big or small, a couple or nothing, trace or a tenth, ill take em TIA 3.0 here in Burlington at ~1,100 ft 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 lock it in 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 52 minutes ago, RDRY said: GFS shutting down the east coast at 234. Lock that in pls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 23 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Any final snow totals for CT, big or small, a couple or nothing, trace or a tenth, ill take em TIA 2.75 but still snowing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now