Great Snow 1717 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is simply not true. There is fingerprints of climate change everywhere - that is not me. Reality is obsessed with reality, and there those that cannot accept it. Because to do so, means their methods are not right - largely so... That's what's going on here behind these turn of phrases. So yeah...typical tact, pot shot and make it a personal abasement, then ...redirect to another thread. Crass - and it won't work You are wrong. And I am right. sorry Agree, some people just refuse to accept the realities of CC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 48 minutes ago, 512high said: Can we talk about Wednesday/Thursday? Is this something like today? Front snows to rain(again)? It may end up like today in terms of PT transitioning and stuff but it will not be because of the same sort of over arcing event. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Don't forget about global SST increases, the biggest of which, have occurred off the coast here. Great point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 SSTs cost me 10" inches last weekend. Despite the marginal airmass, I think the warmer SSTs were a big hinderance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I think CC is messing with long range guidance. Forky said the cold vortex is smaller than before and that makes sense. I take issue with his thinking a lot of times on this topic, but what he said there jives with what I think re long range modelling. What is the physical mechanism though? Models aren't taking a hypothetical mid-20th century climate and trying to apply it to 2023.....they are ingesting real time data. A smaller PV might make the model performance a bit worse because models perform worse in lower gradient environments....however, the model verification score improvement is at odds with that theory becoming dominant. Models are improving faster than any sort of "shrinking PV" can offset that performance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: SSTs cost me 10" inches last weekend. Despite the marginal airmass, I think the warmer SSTs were a big hinderance Exacerbated this year with the lack of sustained cold too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 18 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Agree, some people just refuse to accept the realities of CC. Over-stating attribution is just as anti-science as implying there is none. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Exacerbated this year with the lack of sustained cold too. Correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I just centered the 12z GFS on 06z Thursday morning and utilizing the Prev button ( TT), I clicked 15 times ... 15 all the way back to the day of the comms outage at NCEP, and the depiction of that interval is for all intents and purposes unchanged across all those clicks. Hard to knock consistency huh - ..usually there's some semblance of modulation over that much time and space.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 28 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: SSTs cost me 10" inches last weekend. Despite the marginal airmass, I think the warmer SSTs were a big hinderance Let me ask you this sequence of questions... How much so are the SSTs above normal, against the 100 year climate foot? If one removed that delta, what would the SSTs be in the same synoptic circumstantial 'marginal air mass' ? I'm asking these not to doubt you ... I'm just being analytic about it - also, supplying some memory. I can recall numerous storms as late as February ...during a much more snowier prolific 1990s decade compared to what we've experience since 2015, where any flow off the ocean was dreadful even to colder storms - let alone marginal atmospheres. So, what you are saying is certainly true, in and of its self... But, I'm not sure it is really possible to parse out CC in the present SSTs as being particularly causal in why you didn't result in 10" of snow - when that seems pretty consistent in any decade going back a long, long while. Particularly in marginal circumstances. Oceanic heat content can vary a few degrees - just based a-priory on education - ... in a marginal atmosphere, either end of that variance will doom an outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 25th looking a lot like today up here on the 12Z Euro. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: 25th looking a lot like today up here on the 12Z Euro. Much better than today for the far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, tamarack said: Much better than today for the far north. The north was pretty much shut out on this one, They look to do better as this one looks to track along the coast into the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Let me ask you this sequence of questions... How much so are the SSTs above normal, against the 100 year climate foot? If one removed that delta, what would the SSTs be in the same synoptic circumstantial 'marginal air mass' ? I'm asking these not to doubt you ... I'm just being analytic about it - also, supplying some memory. I can recall numerous storms as late as February ...during a much more snowier prolific 1990s decade compared to what we've experience since 2015, where any flow off the ocean was dreadful even to colder storms - let alone marginal atmospheres. So, what you are saying is certainly true, in and of its self... But, I'm not sure it is really possible to parse out CC in the present SSTs as being particularly causal in why you didn't result in 10" of snow - when that seems pretty consistent in any decade going back a long, long while. Particularly in marginal circumstances. Oceanic heat content can vary a few degrees - just based a-priory on education - ... in a marginal atmosphere, either end of that variance will doom an outcome. SSTs off the Maine coast at 45F today (50 at Georges Bank), and while I don't have the 100-year data, I'd guess the current temps are ~5° AN. Probably awful for the coast, maybe more snowy qpf farther inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: The north was pretty much shut out on this one, They look to do better as this one looks to track along the coast into the GOM Trace at PQI thru 1 PM, nada CAR/FVE but at least they're cloudy - 2 hours ago they were partly sunny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, tamarack said: Trace at PQI thru 1 PM, nada CAR/FVE but at least they're cloudy - 2 hours ago they were partly sunny. Got about 4 inches here, happy with that as it was about right in the middle of the forecasted amount, hoping for 8 inches Thursday and we'll have our whole trail system open for this weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Over-stating attribution is just as anti-science as implying there is none. Exactly. That is my whole point. CC certainly exists and impacts weather to an extent. Just my opinion that certain people overstate it. Definitely real. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Agree, some people just refuse to accept the realities of CC. But why does it always have to be described as "change" when it's just another part of cycle. The current "change" is not permanent IMO and I hate how the media and others portray it that way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 the favorable period really begins in February when the TPV gets displaced and allows waves to track underneath it. big overrunning signal here seven members out of 30 give BOS 20” or more in the next 16 days! crazy 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 In SNE for the Wednesday night storm after say 2-4” for most of region.. how warm does it get early Thursday inland? Are we just looking at 35-39 for a few hours or is it a long period of 40’s? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 48 minutes ago, tamarack said: SSTs off the Maine coast at 45F today (50 at Georges Bank), and while I don't have the 100-year data, I'd guess the current temps are ~5° AN. Probably awful for the coast, maybe more snowy qpf farther inland? It would affect snow rates and ptype and all that more... That's just dope slap arithmetic argument there ... Yeah, I wonder. Since water is 4 times more proficient at storing heat than the atmosphere above, it doesn't seem varying the water by 5 F would matter ... mm I'm just not sure it matters hugely when 45 is still a relative inferno either way. It's like being 10 miles over the line, and then thinking 5 miles going back puts back over the line. It doesn't ... you still have room to spare - that's why all this shit is bear to grasp sometimes because we human tend to put specific boundaries and value compartments on aspects of nature that really require gradation in every dimension ..as well as threshold conceptualization. And the thresholds themselves are blurred lines with all the noisy crap that goes on. By the way folks, re the CC and models debate... The only model CC would "influence" would be the CFS model, most likely. That model's physicality takes into consideration the environmental CO2, but, it is integrating the 1988 parts per unit volume concentration. I just happen to know that... so I Googled and sure enough...there is a CPC paper out there that specifically focus on the question of C02 being tied to anthropomorphic forcing and it's role on perceived biases in the running of the Climate Forecast System model. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/vddoolpubs/AMS_JWAF_2009_965-973_trendglobalwarmingCFSv1.pdf I can't find any specific aspect like this related to the physics of like the UKMET Euro or GFS..etc... I don't believe those models care. I may be wrong ? Chris might know. I always thought these latter tools were thermodynamic and geo-physical feature feed-backs after the fact of chemistry. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: In SNE for the Wednesday night storm after day 2-4” for most of region.. how warm does it get early Thursday inland? Are we just looking at 35-39 for a few hours or is it a long period of 40’s? It’s Wednesday 10am to 10pm throughout the state. Looking like 2-5” for most if not all of the state. then rain but temps shouldn’t rise above 39.. edit euro has gotten much warmer last few runs so it does spike to 50 for a few hours across 75% of the state. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Agree, some people just refuse to accept the realities of CC. It's not that some don't accept it. It's instantly blaming the current yearly weather pattern on it. "It didn't snow this year so it's climate change." None of us know how much it's really affecting the weather pattern that we are in. We could just as easily have above normal snow Winters as we've had the last couple decades. This has happened before, and it will happen again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exactly. That is my whole point. CC certainly exists and impacts weather to an extent. Just my opinion that certain people overstate it. Definitely real. I certainly don't mind people talking about it because it's obviously a thing. I think what irritates me the most on this board is those that fairly consistently talk about it... and didn't start doing so until we hit our first bad winter a couple years back. Before that it seemed to be radio silence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, dryslot said: 25th looking a lot like today up here on the 12Z Euro. Raking the roof now in anticipation of another dump, and then water, which freezes it to the roof. I’m doing a ton of shoveling today and clearing in anticipation of Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, dryslot said: The north was pretty much shut out on this one, They look to do better as this one looks to track along the coast into the GOM Is it trending to holding a cold air and longer? In my mind I’ve been thinking that we would get a 6 inch front and dump and then some sleet and rain. But we’ve been trending just cold enough up here now lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: But why does it always have to be described as "change" when it's just another part of cycle. The current "change" is not permanent IMO and I hate how the media and others portray it that way. ..but what evidence suggests it isn't permanent?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 48 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: It's not that some don't accept it. It's instantly blaming the current yearly weather pattern on it. "It didn't snow this year so it's climate change." None of us know how much it's really affecting the weather pattern that we are in. We could just as easily have above normal snow Winters as we've had the last couple decades. This has happened before, and it will happen again .but it is affecting the type of the weather the patterns produce.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 This is getting real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 This GYX analysis leads me to agree with the Euro, and the fresh cold air makes me wonder if more of us do well than just the fortunate up here. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Overview: Canadian high pressure briefly builds in on Wednesday, supplying us with fresh cold air ahead of our next storm system which will impact the area Wednesday night through the first half of Thursday. This system is expected to bring significant amounts of snow, especially across the interior with a rain/snow mix across the south and coastal locations. Some mixed wintry precipitation is also likely, mainly across the interior. Low pressure departs to our east on Thursday night with more tranquil weather returning for Friday and the upcoming weekend. A cold front approaches on Monday, possibly resulting in scattered snow showers. Impacts: Plowable snowfall is likely on Wednesday night into Thursday across the region, with the most significant amounts across the interior. In addition, some mixed wintry precipitation is likely, which will assist in creating hazardous travel conditions for the Thursday morning commute. Gusty winds are also possible, especially along the coast. Forecast Details: Canadian high pressure will build across southern Quebec on Wednesday, which will help to supply New England with a fresh cold airmass ahead of our next storm system which will be moving across the Tennessee River Valley. This storm system will be at the base of a deep 500 mb trough axis, which will be extending all the way down to the Gulf Coast. This trough will move east towards the U.S. East Coast on Wednesday night with the parent low moving across the eastern Great Lakes as a new low begins to form offshore of the Mid-Atlantic region. These two systems will then phase into early Thursday with the coastal low becoming the primary circulation as it rapidly intensifies near eastern New England. A front end thump of moderate to heavy snowfall is expected for all areas Wednesday night as a surface warm front moves northward. The latest ensemble guidance indicates probabilities of 50 percent or greater for at least 6" of snowfall from the coastal plain north with gradually lowering probabilities across southern NH and coastal ME. Winter Storm Watches will likely be needed for much of the region but since we still have ongoing headlines in effect, will wait until future forecast packages. While changes can be expected, warmer air is likely to intrude across at least southern NH and coastal ME during the day on Thursday as the low tracks near the region but across the interior, mountains, and north the cold air is likely to linger through the day. As a result, rain is likely to mix with the snow south of the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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