HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 50 minutes ago, kdxken said: I wonder if we have a chance at the cloudiest January ever? Got to be close. Maybe a couple hours of sun on Tuesday and then we have to wait until the end of the week. Yeah, it’s starting to get to me a little bit. I think we had a few hours of sun this week and that was it. This week looks like more clouds than sun until the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Still time to trend and dampen. Been a lot of that lately. We trend and dampen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 The storm tonight and tomorrow looked warm and rainy to Mainey.. and we did get more confluence and possibly a reach around. Maybe this one can something similar? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The storm tonight and tomorrow looked warm and rainy to Mainey.. and we did get more confluence and possibly a reach around. Maybe this one can something similar? Not sure about all those metaphors but ..yeah...it did just that for one run, the 18z yesterday ( GFS)... Since, 00z and 06z went quickly back to the easy scour out bully primary look. Not sure it can't return but it's fleeting as chances go, unfortunately. ...may still front side snow for a couple of hours, even though, but that 18z offered an interesting rendition that locked/stranded a cold slab in the interior from N CT NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Not that it will happen but it is sorta funny to see the trough dig to Baja in January 31, and then a cutter head right up the Mississippi River . Love that deep California trough showing up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Not that it will happen but it is sorta funny to see the trough dig to Baja in January 31, and then a cutter head right up the Mississippi River . Love that deep California trough showing up The risk is quite high that we sneak a cutter in there even during these 10-14 days where it’s a colder pattern. But at least there’s real cold behind those systems and real cold lurking just to the north so we’ll have some chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure why there was so much voodoo. Nothing I saw showed a SSW other than the vortex getting pushed off the pole. I was never on board for a major SSW, but my point was that minor may be sufficient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was never on board for a major SSW, but my point was that minor may be sufficient. disruptions can be as useful as SSWs in terms of making blocking a bit more easy to obtain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 15 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Man…big changes incoming. Doesn’t mean Feb 15 but we’ll take it and not worry about mid Feb onward. LFG. Edibles? Looks like much of the same.. except, maybe a sloppy few inches that get washed away Wednesday. Post 2/1 does look colder for a bit at least hopefully we can time out an actual snowstorm to go with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was never on board for a major SSW, but my point was that minor may be sufficient. Yeah, but these guys were just saying this now vs what you mentioned weeks or months ago. I don’t understand what they were looking at. Maybe just projecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Edibles? Looks like much of the same.. except, maybe a sloppy few inches that get washed away Wednesday. Post 2/1 does look colder for a bit at least hopefully we can time out an actual snowstorm to go with it. You did say we have a 3-4 day window lmao. You’re always very much on the negative side of things though most times, so that is always taken into account. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You did say we have a 3-4 day window lmao. You’re always very much on the negative side of things though most times, so that is always taken into account. And that still stands as the SE ridge comes back. Negative side? or the correct side this year since we’ve had 3” of snow. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I don’t feel that negative looking ahead. This week sucks, but the models are giving us chances which is more than we have seen all winter. We will probably have to deal with cutters too, but that’s just how it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t feel that negative looking ahead. This week sucks, but the models are giving us chances which is more than we have seen all winter. We will probably have to deal with cutters too, but that’s just how it goes. The negative vibe for me comes from the fact that it was post 1/25 looking nice. Now it’s post 2/1, so we have a window of the week of 2/1.. after that who knows if the weeklies and Nina climo is right and we torch? So we need to cash in on that week which happens to be peak climo, but if we don’t then yikes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 the midweek threat seems the have fizzled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: The negative vibe for me comes from the fact that it was post 1/25 looking nice. Now it’s post 2/1, so we have a window of the week of 2/1.. after that who knows if the weeklies and Nina climo is right and we torch? So we need to cash in on the week. I mean these next two events looked like shit for New England and now 50 miles away will have a solid pack by Thursday. So things are changing. We’ll get our turn hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean these next two events looked like shit for New England and now 50 miles away will have a solid pack by Thursday. So things are changing. We’ll get our turn hopefully. Oh no doubt. Just sucks for our area for at least a week. As I’ve said, I’d love to be in CNE right now, I’d be pumped 20-40” in a few weeks time widespread. Get some snow down north then pull some cold down and just just need one storm ideally a biggie and I’ll be content enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Oh no doubt. Just sucks for our area for at least a week. As I’ve said, I’d love to be in CNE right now, I’d be pumped 20-40” in a few weeks time widespread. Get some snow down north then pull some cold down and just just need one storm ideally a biggie and I’ll be content enough. I am optimistic that I can break 2 inches on the season by February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 There's a spread suggestion for something over the first week of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, but these guys were just saying this now vs what you mentioned weeks or months ago. I don’t understand what they were looking at. Maybe just projecting? Even in November, I explicitly wrote that a major SSW is not expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Looking at ensembles it seems the first half of February is definitely workable. It won’t be the shit sandwich we’ve been munching on for the past month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: The negative vibe for me comes from the fact that it was post 1/25 looking nice. Now it’s post 2/1, so we have a window of the week of 2/1.. after that who knows if the weeklies and Nina climo is right and we torch? So we need to cash in on that week which happens to be peak climo, but if we don’t then yikes.. I wouldn’t sell the last few days of January yet post-1/25. Could be something overrunning there…but nuances won’t be predicted yet this far out. I do like seeing lots of scooter highs traversing to our north on some of these runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn’t sell the last few days of January yet post-1/25. Could be something overrunning there…but nuances won’t be predicted yet this far out. I do like seeing lots of scooter highs traversing to our north on some of these runs. A positive post for wolfman. A very snowy geps and GEFS in the 7-15 for a change. About half of this comes after Wednesday. So there’s more chances.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: A positive post for wolfman. A very snowy geps and GEFS in the 7-15 for a change. About half of this comes after Wednesday. So there’s more chances.. Ya, thanks. And that’s all I’m saying. I think we’ll have some shots. Better than where we are now. I’ll take that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, thanks. And that’s all I’m saying. I think we’ll have some shots. Better than where we are now. I’ll take that. It’s easier to stomach if you accept this winter won’t rally back to near average snow. Just look for a few decent events. I personally would like to grab a good warning event (plus another event of at least advisory) before the pattern flips back to shit and then see if we can grab a big dog in very late Feb or March…then call it a season. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: disruptions can be as useful as SSWs in terms of making blocking a bit more easy to obtain Minor SSW events can be just as effective, but are just unlikely to last as long. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s easier to stomach if you accept this winter won’t rally back to near average snow. Just look for a few decent events. I personally would like to grab a good warning event (plus another event of at least advisory) before the pattern flips back to shit and then see if we can grab a big dog in very late Feb or March…then call it a season. That would definitely work. I’d be happy with something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 WPC still enthusiastic about Wednesday. Strong storm and 1"qpf up here. But my area definitely on the line, probably moreso than tonight. Hope we can somehow trend this better for many because it looks like a fairly dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 @CoastalWx what do you make of EPS today? Seems like a continuity break in LR. That’s a brutally cold look later in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: @CoastalWx what do you make of EPS today? Seems like a continuity break in LR. That’s a brutally cold look later in the period. I’ll have to look! Away at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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