Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Pretty impressive detailing too - You can see a vicious tuck pulse correction in the 2-meter. Flashes 33's to 27's between the Pike and Rt 2 having never flipped the ORH Hills to rain. That's a significant profile correction for the mid week system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So you don't feel late January and maybe very early February look more wintry? He said there was no pattern change. I tried to engage a little bit a couple days ago when it briefly looked like he wanted to discuss in good faith…but that quickly went by the wayside. Having the PV move down to Hudson Bay is something we haven’t seen for a month. There’s still western troughing, but there’s arctic air nearby now so we’ll have some chances. It prob goes to shit as we go deeper into February….I haven’t disagreed with that part, but that’s out in clown range for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He said there was no pattern change. I tried to engage a little bit a couple days ago when it briefly looked like he wanted to discuss in good faith…but that quickly went by the wayside. Having the PV move down to Hudson Bay is something we haven’t seen for a month. There’s still western troughing, but there’s arctic air nearby now so we’ll have some chances. It prob goes to shit as we go deeper into February….I haven’t disagreed with that part, but that’s out in clown range for now. Yea, I see Feb as going to shit, but initially it looks to me like the type of RNA we can work here. They can be very good for us and we are due for some snow. I'm not saying Feb 2015, but just getting on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I see Feb as going to shit, but initially it looks to me like the type of RNA we can work here. They can be very good for us and we are due for some snow. I'm not saying Feb 2015, but just getting on the board. Yeah I agree . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So you don't feel late January and maybe very early February look more wintry? We have a two week window before we go back to where we were since December 28th 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: We have a two week window before we go back to where we were since December 28th Is that 5? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: We have a two week window before we go back to where we were since December 28th Okay, yes. Totally fair. I just feel like it is important to also mention that in the January thread, as opposed to skipping ahead to the return of the torch next month, which is away from the focus of the thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay, yes. Totally fair. I just feel like it is important to also mention that in the January thread, as opposed to skipping ahead to the return of the torch next month, which is away from the focus of the thread. The thing about qq is that I think he’s smart. I really don’t understand a person wanting to act like a trill, but to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: The thing about qq is that I think he’s smart. I really don’t understand a person wanting to act like a trill, but to each their own. He absolutely knows his stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He absolutely knows his stuff. if we did His ancestry.. is he potentially related to forky 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay, yes. Totally fair. I just feel like it is important to also mention that in the January thread, as opposed to skipping ahead to the return of the torch next month, which is away from the focus of the thread. We started the January thread on December 18. Perhaps its time we started the February thread and we can put these conversations where they belong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: We started the January thread on December 18. Perhaps its time we started the February thread and we can put these conversations where they belong. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: if we did His ancestry.. is he potentially related to forky Or is Forky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: The thing about qq is that I think he’s smart. I really don’t understand a person wanting to act like a trill, but to each their own. Yeah I don’t think he’s really a dumb troll. I initially thought that, but then I read more of his posts and he actually knows his shit. It seems like he genuinely likes warmer weather, like Torch Tiger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Man…big changes incoming. Doesn’t mean Feb 15 but we’ll take it and not worry about mid Feb onward. LFG. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Man…big changes incoming. Doesn’t mean Feb 15 but we’ll take it and not worry about mid Feb onward. LFG. It’s just as possible that we get a -5 Feb with an eastern trough as that output on the super long range guidance is. The pattern shown on those long range ensembles is quite extreme so it makes sense to be skeptical. The truth is likely in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Well, at least a few days have snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Man…big changes incoming. Doesn’t mean Feb 15 but we’ll take it and not worry about mid Feb onward. LFG. Absolutely. That’s(mid February still 3.5 plus weeks away) too far out at this stage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Even after a blip earlier today, wonder ground now has the Wednesday storm up to 9 inches even including some rain on Thursday. Then there’s a couple of inches progged for the 30th. SNE has to get in on some of this at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Thankfully even if tomorrows system drops a few inches of slop, the 26th is (besdies the onset) a flooding rainer and not snow. There's a positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Looks like HM was right. The SSWE fell by the wayside. The SPV restrengthens again in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 24 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Looks like HM was right. The SSWE fell by the wayside. The SPV restrengthens again in February Not sure why there was so much voodoo. Nothing I saw showed a SSW other than the vortex getting pushed off the pole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Wednesday and Thursday seem dicey for many but we thump and bulletproof. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Not sure why there was so much voodoo. Nothing I saw showed a SSW other than the vortex getting pushed off the pole. Certain weenie mets ran with it on social media and weather enthusiasts who don’t know any better fell for all the hype. IMO they are doing a disservice to meteorology and the weather community in general by wishcasting and spreading misinformation. It’s a group of 4 mets (Joe Bastardi, Mark Margavage, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann) who are really bad and have big followings on twitter. Their followers retweet and spread their voodoo far and wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I wonder if we have a chance at the cloudiest January ever? Got to be close. Maybe a couple hours of sun on Tuesday and then we have to wait until the end of the week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Certain weenie mets ran with it on social media and weather enthusiasts who don’t know any better fell for all the hype. IMO they are doing a disservice to meteorology and the weather community in general by wishcasting and spreading misinformation. It’s a group of 4 mets (Joe Bastardi, Mark Margavage, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann) who are really bad and have big followings on twitter. Their followers retweet and spread their voodoo far and wide Should have said 5 mets. Steve DiMartino was big into the SSWE hype for weeks too. But that’s not a surprise coming from him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Late week looks tough in SNE. Maybe a few inches interior, but a lot of rain too. This will be more for NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Late week looks tough in SNE. Maybe a few inches interior, but a lot of rain too. This will be more for NNE. Was reading that the issue is mid level track; surface track is fine but mid levels get fried. Could anything trend the ml better? we often dry slot in those scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Was reading that the issue is mid level track; surface track is fine but mid levels get fried. Could anything trend the ml better? we often dry slot in those scenarios. Main shortwave goes negative pretty far west. If that can be tamed just a bit then it would mean a lot more snow in the front end. There will still be plenty of snow up there on the front end but you may have a decent period of pingers/ZR too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Was reading that the issue is mid level track; surface track is fine but mid levels get fried. Could anything trend the ml better? we often dry slot in those scenarios. The low track isn’t great either. That is driven by the mid levels. There isn’t much of a secondary. You’ll get a net gain probably where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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