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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Everybody stuck watching reruns of “Attack Of the Niña” while hoping we finally get to watch “Revenge of the Weenie.” 

Definitely the better movie IMO. I especially like the battle between Anafrontal Snowwalker and Nosnowbi Juan. 

One thing is certain, I'm tired of watching the battle between the Anal Avengers and Cosmic Dildos at the Methuen AMC. Damn movie is half a decade...

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is going to be hell to pay this month, and while it may not be paid in (insert weenie)'s backyard, someone will pay it.

Careful Ray….1717, Qg and the like, will be in to scold and tell us nothing has changed, nor will it/or is it changing, and January is 3/4 gone..even though it’s still 12/30. 

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this is a bizarre setup, but it might actually work. here, you have amplification of Rockies ridging due to another system strengthening offshore. then, lots of confluence is forced by the TPV swinging over SE Canada, which leads to a cold banana high

weird setup, believe me, but there are actually pieces here

897A49FC-15B3-4C91-BF5A-EA1BBBC54FFA.thumb.gif.c6fd63bd6170d85a4c86073fbe77d89b.gifC033A457-1E4F-4A16-B16F-DBBDE3764F94.thumb.gif.0903a5e9e84cb06f87e7770fff7c30e5.gif

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Careful Ray….1717, Qg and the like, will be in to scold and tell us nothing has changed, nor will it/or is it changing, and January is 3/4 gone..even though it’s still 12/30. 

Truth be told, its ill-advised for me to word anything that strongly at this juncture, but this is a hobby for me and I feel like I have supported all of my postulations with ample research.

So fu&* it-

Going out on a large limb here and subject myself to the scorn of trolls if things don't break right....anyway, I feel like if January doesn't pan out, then this season's work is an abject failure for me, regardless.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Truth be told, its ill-advised for me to word anything that strongly at this juncture, but this is a hobby for me and I feel like I have supported all of my postulations with ample research.

So fu&* it-

Going out on a large limb here and subject myself to the scorn of trolls if things don't break right....anyway, I feel like if January doesn't pan out, then this season's work is an abject failure for me, regardless.

No, no…I like when you postulate. Trolls are what they are…and they’re gonna troll no matter what.  It’s good to put things/thoughts backed up by credible science out there…that’s what this place is for.  Keep it up. 
 

Nice job! :thumbsup:

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23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So I take it this is a relatively good thing? 

It can be. No guarantees though. It’s a good way to “reshuffle” the hemispheric pattern though.  It will help make coastals a little more favorable than a classic base state La Niña pattern. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It can be. No guarantees though. It’s a good way to “reshuffle” the hemispheric pattern though.  It will help make coastals a little more favorable than a classic base state La Niña pattern. 

Much safer and more responsible way to articulate things than I just did...agreed lol

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Just now, jbenedet said:

What does this mean? Specifics?

 

This is fortune teller level detail here. C'mon. 

 

I was plenty specific enough:

January 2023 Outlook

January Analogs:1971, 1976, 1985, 1986,1996 2011, 2014, 2021, 2022
January is like to be consistent with climatology in that it will be the most consistently fierce month in that there is likely to be "storms and rumor of storms", to quote an old and wise weather weenie. It was mentioned that opportunities for a coupling of EPO/PNA style blocking with NAO blocking would be scarce this season, but if it is to occur, it will be this month, as evidenced by the January 2023 forecast H5 composite:
AVvXsEiidvSOE1pjHW6Tud9F_FU4SO32DoOaJm4h
The recovery of  the PNA from the RNA month of December is also evident in the ECMWF forecast:
AVvXsEgAif9I87FpHjvdQnlissZMKngiZJ1oD7Cj

 
Note the opportunity for cross polar flow and what will at times be frigid conditions. This will also be a month of great flux, which will likely couple with well above average N hemispheric SSTs and a surplus of water vapor owed to the submarine eruption of Hunga Tonga last January help to facilitate a large scale and perhaps generation storm opportunity. This event will be the signature storm of the season, and will have the potential to cripple travel over a widespread area for a time in a window between approximately January 6th-20th
This is the month that the mid Atlantic likely receives the bulk of its seasonal snowfall. January will be the inverse of December in that it will be biased more wintery earlier, but blocking should relinquish its grip and it should modify with flooding threats possible during a major thaw.
 
January 2023 Forecast Temp Anomalies:
 
1951-2010:
 
AVvXsEgz-adLOe0xXQK5RY1GbFja5Ydp82OO9d_m

1991-2020:
 
 
AVvXsEg1Eu6sezjjj8S3WeprBJUrR0qL-yR97C3q

January 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies:
 
1951-2010:
 
AVvXsEixql4zAnTZwi6ak2f8sRZNIXb33i2B_aaE

1991-2020:
 
AVvXsEhSsAjYcPr3GGDQNU2NYnauiAZ1vI_uunIi

It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composites, 
but also even during the season in general given the unique circumstances surrounding Hunga Tonga.
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It's really funny to me people looking out 10 days plus using NWP, when the fundamental underpinning to NWP is CHAOS THEORY.

What that means is, if you get a detailed forecast right, out 10 days+, it was a result of luck, and not any skill. And so the next time you attempt to use the same methodology (it worked last time!), and we get a completely different result, you're flummoxed. Worse, still, you're not gaining skill either. 

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