ineedsnow Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: This is what life looks like when you live at 300’ elevation but the snow line is often above 600’ elevation. driving on 202 earlier was pretty crazy going up and down the hills and seeing amounts change so fast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 So I mentioned this to Will in a tl/dr op ed a couple hours ago... This 25 ( I guess it is no longer the "26th" ?) event is trying to devolve in the guidance. They've all been weakening, albeit slowly, the system's cyclonic scaffolding as this has relayed into mid range. The 12z GFS is now just 1000 mb closed contour with the primary over NW PA, with 999 mb secondary that is also bumped slightly E of the prior model cycle positions, centered over the NY Bite at 12z Thur. That's all code for continuing to turn this away from a strong cyclonic total evolution.. .but toward what? I'm wondering if this continues to devolve to more of something like Monday's event... flatter wave(s) with overrunning. It's almost down to just being an WAA thrust already. If the primary continues to weaken in the outlook, eventually it'll all just collapse SE en masse. We'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: driving on 202 earlier was pretty crazy going up and down the hills and seeing amounts change so fast Damn, that is a crazy road to commute on regularly! Beautiful though. Detour over to Petersham general store sometime. The owner is a great cook! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: PV being near us in Canada…and yes, we should get an arctic intrusion or two I would think with it lurking so close by. Hoping for a bit of real winter cold - maybe enough to kill off some hemlock wooly adelgids and moose ticks. Minus 3 (currently season's coldest) won't get it done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So I mentioned this to Will in a tl/dr op ed a couple hours ago... This 25 ( I guess it is no longer the "26th" ?) event is trying to devolve in the guidance. They've all been weakening, albeit slowly, the system's cyclonic scaffolding as this has relayed into mid range. The 12z GFS is now just 1000 mb closed contour with the primary over NW PA, with 999 mb secondary that is also bumped slightly E of the prior model cycle positions, centered over the NY Bite at 12z Thur. That's all code for continuing to turn this away from a strong cyclonic total evolution.. .but toward what? I'm wondering if this continues to devolve to more of something like Monday's event... flatter wave(s) with overrunning. It's almost down to just being an WAA thrust already. If the primary continues to weaken in the outlook, eventually it'll all just collapse SE en masse. We'll see - Parent s/w trending weaker. I saw that on guidance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Everyone in all of New England should avoid looking at later panels of op cmc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Parent s/w trending weaker. I saw that on guidance today. Yeah and I'm not sure what it'll mean. I'm not just trying to sow optimism here. It's opening the door to other possibilities, other than a pig primary with coughing secondary ... I also think we're ( no you and me per se but the royal 'we're' ) looking for idealized structures that aren't going to happen this year - to be blunt. Maybe ... not wrt these critters this week, anyway. Still, I think we can "get lucky" on both... How? Monday's event is shaving deg F, as well as inching the rain snow line SE in recent runs. I'd almost argue that we could be icing after a brief snow shot ...particularly when the low is nearing the islands and tucking kicks in - 'just enough'. Not a forecast - just how to make chicken salad out of chicken shit. Then if the parent/ lead S/W becomes less dominant like your saying...we'll see for the next. I understand that down near y'all in SE coast, we're f'ed either way. Frankly, until the arctic air really makes it's present felt/physically exerting, not sure anyone along the coastal plain is going to be particularly UNf'ed until that happens. Last 3 cycles of the GFS has a little critter look along the leading powerful arctic p-wave coming through in a week. Everyone may WINDEX 1.5 to 3" or so out of that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Everyone in all of New England should avoid looking at later panels of op cmc. In this winter, it will be right...I feel like the Euro OP sort of showed this at 0z. But, if the CMC showed a snowstorm, it will most certainly be incorrect...Especially this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Everyone in all of New England should avoid looking at later panels of op cmc. What, this? 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Is 30" in Baton Rouge unusual? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: What, this? It's from the first week of February suppression depression shown on the latest GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Is 30" in Baton Rouge unusual? Should check the Akashic records for this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 19 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: What, this? Repeat of the 1899 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 32 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: What, this? ORF gets more snow than BOS. Checks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Skeptical as temps are 34-36 across 99% of SNE the entirety of the “snow” Backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Skeptical as temps are 34-36 across 99% of SNE the entirety of the “snow” The starving weenies just need to drive up the road to the Monahhhds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Backside After I finish shoveling, k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 There’s an ongoing thread for 1/23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: What, this? You have to admit that would be pretty awesome to see happen! I mean, aside from the people that would inevitably die in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Backside Fanny? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Not as much melting as forecast. Maybe it's a start of a trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 That EURO run was disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That EURO run was disgusting Ya besides the unlikely snow Monday. Looks like we have to wait until post 1/31 cutter for a chance in CT. Which would be the entire month of January without accumulating snow for 99.9% of CTs population. I wonder if Will can recall any other times that’s happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That EURO run was disgusting yup, looks similar to the CMC...So we have the SE Ridge flexing warmth and rain back here(CMC/Euro) or a blizzard in the Southeast(GFS). Besides the faux backside snow, we are back to how many ways can we rain and not snow? One of these times we need to flip the script? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya besides the unlikely snow Monday. Looks like we have to wait until post 1/31 cutter for a chance in CT. Which would be the entire month of January without accumulating snow for 99.9% of CTs population. I wonder if Will can recall any other times that’s happened. 97/98? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Perhaps with such changes and odd solutions we should wait for all of the global ensembles to get a sense of things? Or we could swing around like a yo yo on a windy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, WeatherX said: Should check the Akashic records for this one Well, you sent me to the Google for that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya besides the unlikely snow Monday. Looks like we have to wait until post 1/31 cutter for a chance in CT. Which would be the entire month of January without accumulating snow for 99.9% of CTs population. I wonder if Will can recall any other times that’s happened. 1990 IIRC, and it was warmer than what we've had this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 97/98? I remember my dad and I plowed that year a lot of the accounts were on the shore and there was one plowable storm all year on the shoreline. I wonder what date that was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: 1990 IIRC, and it was warmer than what we've had this year Wow, I have zero recollection of that I was only 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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