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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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So I mentioned this to Will in a tl/dr op ed a couple hours ago...

This 25 ( I guess it is no longer the "26th" ?) event is trying to devolve in the guidance.  They've all been weakening, albeit slowly, the system's cyclonic scaffolding as this has relayed into mid range.  The 12z GFS is now just 1000 mb closed contour with the primary over NW PA, with 999 mb secondary that is also bumped slightly E of the prior model cycle positions, centered over the NY Bite at 12z Thur.

That's all code for continuing to turn this away from a strong cyclonic total evolution.. .but toward what?  I'm wondering if this continues to devolve to more of something like Monday's event... flatter wave(s) with overrunning.   It's almost down to just being an WAA thrust already.  If the primary continues to weaken in the outlook, eventually it'll all just collapse SE en masse. 

We'll see -

 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

PV being near us in Canada…and yes, we should get an arctic intrusion or two I would think with it lurking so close by. 

Hoping for a bit of real winter cold - maybe enough to kill off some hemlock wooly adelgids and moose ticks.  Minus 3 (currently season's coldest) won't get it done.

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So I mentioned this to Will in a tl/dr op ed a couple hours ago...

This 25 ( I guess it is no longer the "26th" ?) event is trying to devolve in the guidance.  They've all been weakening, albeit slowly, the system's cyclonic scaffolding as this has relayed into mid range.  The 12z GFS is now just 1000 mb closed contour with the primary over NW PA, with 999 mb secondary that is also bumped slightly E of the prior model cycle positions, centered over the NY Bite at 12z Thur.

That's all code for continuing to turn this away from a strong cyclonic total evolution.. .but toward what?  I'm wondering if this continues to devolve to more of something like Monday's event... flatter wave(s) with overrunning.   It's almost down to just being an WAA thrust already.  If the primary continues to weaken in the outlook, eventually it'll all just collapse SE en masse. 

We'll see -

 

Parent s/w trending weaker. I saw that on guidance today. 
 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Parent s/w trending weaker. I saw that on guidance today. 
 

 

 

Yeah and I'm not sure what it'll mean. I'm not just trying to sow optimism here.  It's opening the door to other possibilities, other than a pig primary with coughing secondary ...

I also think we're ( no you and me per se but the royal 'we're' ) looking for idealized structures that aren't going to happen this year - to be blunt. Maybe ... not wrt these critters this week, anyway.  

Still, I think we can "get lucky" on both...  How?

Monday's event is shaving deg F, as well as inching the rain snow line SE in recent runs.  I'd almost argue that we could be icing after a brief snow shot ...particularly when the low is nearing the islands and tucking kicks in - 'just enough'.   Not a forecast - just how to make chicken salad out of chicken shit.  

Then if the parent/ lead S/W becomes less dominant like your saying...we'll see for the next.

I understand that down near y'all in SE coast, we're f'ed either way.  Frankly, until the arctic air really makes it's present felt/physically exerting, not sure anyone along the coastal plain is going to be particularly UNf'ed until that happens.

Last 3 cycles of the GFS has a little critter look along the leading powerful arctic p-wave coming through in a week.   Everyone may WINDEX 1.5 to 3" or so out of that....  

 

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Everyone in all of New England should avoid looking at later panels of op cmc.

In this winter, it will be right...I feel like the Euro OP sort of showed this at 0z. But, if the CMC showed a snowstorm, it will most certainly be incorrect...Especially this year

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4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That EURO run was disgusting

 

Ya besides the unlikely snow Monday. Looks like we have to wait until post 1/31 cutter for a chance in CT. Which would be the entire month of January without accumulating snow for 99.9% of CTs population. I wonder if Will can recall any other times that’s happened. 

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That EURO run was disgusting

 

yup, looks similar to the CMC...So we have the SE Ridge flexing warmth and rain back here(CMC/Euro) or a blizzard in the Southeast(GFS). Besides the faux backside snow, we are back to how many ways can we rain and not snow? One of these times we need to flip the script?

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10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya besides the unlikely snow Monday. Looks like we have to wait until post 1/31 cutter for a chance in CT. Which would be the entire month of January without accumulating snow for 99.9% of CTs population. I wonder if Will can recall any other times that’s happened. 

97/98?

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14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya besides the unlikely snow Monday. Looks like we have to wait until post 1/31 cutter for a chance in CT. Which would be the entire month of January without accumulating snow for 99.9% of CTs population. I wonder if Will can recall any other times that’s happened. 

1990 IIRC, and it was warmer than what we've had this year

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