Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Early Feb 2017 pattern. How was that I have the memory of a 90 year old man. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Ski resorts make up some ground with this look next two weeks. Lots of chances to build up bases.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: idk, the ensemble means look as good for snowfall as they have all winter, pretty much this is quite impressive at this range. shows that modeling is beginning to pick up on events with a decent amount of agreement Way too far out, gotta see it within 7 days to believe it. Anything past that is a total crapshoot, the models will change a million times from now until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: It does look good for that stretch this year lol just not as good as the 15 day that is skewed by two events that will probably be rain how do you know that they'll be rain though? the boundary could easily set up south towards the MA if there's a deep enough cold press from the TPV. this is what some of the ensemble members are presenting as a possibility 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: How was that I have the memory of a 90 year old man. We had a biggie on 2/9/17. 12-18" with TSSN. A couple of other ones on either side. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: how do you know that they'll be rain though? the boundary could easily set up south towards the MA if there's a deep enough cold press from the TPV. this is what some of the ensemble members are presenting as a possibility I’m talking about nyc metro and southern SNE areas for Monday and Wednesday storms. There’s a 2-4” mean there but consensus of now is rain or a quick slushy inch to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I’m talking about nyc metro and southern SNE areas for Monday and Wednesday storms. There’s a 2-4” mean there but consensus of now is rain or a quick slushy inch to rain. Monday toast. Wednesday could be decent in the interior before any flip to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: We had a biggie on 2/9/17. 12-18" with TSSN. A couple of other ones on either side. I remember that now great storm with a lot of thunder snow. I was live on air storm coverage and had to rush out as my wife passed out and was pregnant that was a wild ride on the Merritt. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Monday toast. Wednesday could be decent in the interior before any flip to rain. Ya agree and me and him are def not interior lol I flip right after nyc on these setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I remember that now great storm with a lot of thunder snow. I was live on air storm coverage and had to rush out as my wife passed out and was pregnant that was a wild ride on the Merritt. . Whoa lol. You should remember that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not confident on anything more than scraps over the next 10-14 days in SNE Dude…shut up and go skiing. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Is NCEP running on 486-SX computers today? Dreadfully slow all day long. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: how do you know that they'll be rain though? the boundary could easily set up south towards the MA if there's a deep enough cold press from the TPV. this is what some of the ensemble members are presenting as a possibility lol, it’s rain after rain after rain and honestly the cold behind the cutters is not impressive. We are running +10 to +14 this month with no signs of any cold outside a day or two of slightly below normal 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Watching the panels slowly painfully come out today on the 18z Nam is like watching paint dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 One thing is, The 18z Nam is a bit flat for the 23rd @hr54. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: lol, it’s rain after rain after rain and honestly the cold behind the cutters is not impressive. We are running +10 to +14 this month with no signs of any cold outside a day or two of slightly below normal give me an actual meteorological reason that you know that they'll be rain besides the fact that it's been warm so far this month I never said they they would 100% be snow, or even that it's likely that they're snow just that the TPV has a chance of pressing S and can deliver confluence ahead of a southern stream wave, leading to an overrunning event, and that's what the ensembles may be picking up on. not that crazy of an idea 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I hope. Not sure how I feel about March at the moment. Your feeling not good about it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: One thing is, The 18z Nam is a bit flat for the 23rd @hr54. The tic between 12z and 18z pretty sizeable. The whole operation is more sheared, with the trough more positively tilted, we need one more like that...or does that make the damn thing too weak to draw the cold air? No winning this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: One thing is, The 18z Nam is a bit flat for the 23rd @hr54. gives us some room for the tic back NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 37 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: How was that I have the memory of a 90 year old man. LOL me too. All I remember about 16/17 is it was a great winter in my area. Only Will would remember the daily play by play though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: The tic between 12z and 18z pretty sizeable. The whole operation is more sheared, with the trough more positively tilted, we need one more like that...or does that make the damn thing too weak to draw the cold air? No winning this year. It intensifies once it gets up here dropping 10mb in 12hrs once its in the GOM but it look to be colder at the surface and aloft ahead of it getting here too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 9:29 PM, qg_omega said: I hate the PAC SST anomalies and MOJ 8 and 1 were forecasted to be very strong and busted very badly. I am very hesitant to go against the persistent trough in the west and any SSW may send the PV into the west coast. I was at +8 for January (forecasted in early December) and while I may be too warm in a spot or two, overall it will be on point. I don’t think that degree of warmth will sustain and I do see the possibility of transient cold shots. However I don’t see the end to the cold out west, even if they get drier. I would favor north of I90 for any SWFE snow event but each storm will have rain/snow lines and trend warm as we get closer. March will likely end up the best shot but I hate March snow events. Overall, a very frustrating east coast winter but historic west coast. No changes, that is my reasoning. You can look at my posts from November or December as well, nothing has change and nothing will change. I already had this ensemble debate with you before, running a model at a low resolution 50 times is not what I would be using to forecast a very sharp gradient pattern, in fact its likely the worst tool you can use but by all means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: gives us some room for the tic back NW And the warmer air will come with it unfortunately, Its an odd system as it really never closes off @H5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: And the warmer air will come with it unfortunately, Its an odd system as it really never closes off @H5. it's in a hurry to make it through the gulf. With that track you would think it would sit there and bury us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: And the warmer air will come with it unfortunately, Its an odd system as it really never closes off @H5. Its fine in my opinion if we bag 6 and then finish with a glaze for Wed-Thurs snow to lay on top of. But I am really hoping for at least a good thump Sunday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 15 minutes ago, qg_omega said: No changes, that is my reasoning. You can look at my posts from November or December as well, nothing has change and nothing will change. I already had this ensemble debate with you before, running a model at a low resolution 50 times is not what I would be using to forecast a very sharp gradient pattern, in fact its likely the worst tool you can use but by all means. yeah, it's not like ensemble forecasting isn't the most powerful medium to long range forecasting tool we have instead, we should use persistence and outdated MJO plots. i don't even know why I got a degree! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, it's not like ensemble forecasting isn't the most powerful medium to long range forecasting tool we have instead, we should use persistence and outdated MJO plots. i don't even know why I got a degree! Don't forget geese too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Who else is looking forward to two more rain events the next 5-6 days?! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who else is looking forward to two more rain events the next 5-6 days?! Me.. me... NOT!!!! BUT... the rain is necessary as it basically has wiped out our drought deficit ( actually ... There is still a slight drought in western CT still ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 good for CNE, and maybe western SNE? From WPC snow discussion just out an hour ago: ..Northeast... Day 3... The previously noted upper low moving east of the central Rockies tonight is forecast to lift northeast and phase with a northern stream trough digging across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday. This will result in a highly-amplified trough moving east of the Mississippi Valley Sunday evening. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop along the right-entrance region of a strong upper jet and track north and strengthen along the Mid Atlantic to Northeast coast Sunday night. Additional strengthening is expected as the low moves along the New England coast into Atlantic Canada on Monday. The potential for heavy snow with this system remains high, however confidence in its placement is still limited by model spread and run-to-run discontinuities. The general trend of the 12Z guidance was toward a more a more easterly track -- supporting lighter QPF and a lesser threat for heavy snow from western to far northern New York and far northern New England. At this point, even with the more easterly track this still appears to a mostly to all rain event for the I-95 corridor up through Boston. Probabilities for snow accumulations of 8 inches or more are currently highest from the Adirondacks through interior northern New England, however with the shifting track, anticipate some changes of this axis of higher probabilities as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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