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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

GFS with plenty of opportunity after the storm mid next week, hopefully it has a clue....

I will feel much better about prospects of getting to climo here if the active pattern continues after the pattern change. I’m just dubious of it right now.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I will feel much better about prospects of getting to climo here if the active pattern continues after the pattern change. I’m just dubious of it right now.

Yeah, definitely a case of I will believe it, when I am shoveling it. However, the past few days have had a horrible look in the 12 to 16 range, now it looks serviceable at least...fingers crossed

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On 1/12/2023 at 12:07 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And it’s close for many on several systems. It’s active and with an improving cold source, at least pike north gets winter. 

 

On 1/14/2023 at 7:57 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Eps and gefs compromising a bit, as expected. A gradual step down from the shite pattern we’ve been in.

 

On 1/14/2023 at 2:37 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stay the course. Gradual stepdown from shite to less shite as the month unfolds to close out the first half….then we start the step up (comeback) in the second half. 

 

32 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

GFS with plenty of opportunity after the storm mid next week, hopefully it has a clue....

SWC knows. No changes on their views…it’s coming.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

SE ridge later in Feb. Seems like that will occur.

Yeah the SE ridge isn’t really showing any signs of going away, so it makes sense to assume it hangs around until proven otherwise. Hopefully we can get some blocking to make it a gradient pattern rather than full on torch.

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’ll be tracking dews with DIT then.

I forgot to clarify, I track snow until mid April. After that, Im going to be tracking thunderstorms, heavy rain, hurricanes, tropical storms, and possibly even heat waves. That’s the great thing about getting excited about big rainstorms, the tracking doesn’t end once winter ends.

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Man, if we can get that shortwave to track a little further east for 1/25 we'd have a miller B type storm....as it is, it''s tracking so far west but decent confluence does give front end snow. Maybe we can trend it a bit east like 1/23 has been doing.

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Love how we can’t trust an 11 day prog out in time with regard to the the pattern.


But we know a 3-4 week prog showing a SE Ridge is correct?  

Great point. It’s easy and makes sense to lean towards a stubborn pattern persisting, but for all we know the strat stuff could shake up the pattern and we end up with a -5 Feb. it’s unlikely but at this point we have no idea what will happen that far out.

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I'm still liking that post-1/25 pattern into early February....skunked or not skunked to date, it's hard to say it looks like crap. Maybe it will trend worse, but there's going to be chances there and there's an awful lot of arctic cold around too which has been absent for over a month.

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