CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 It's also got widespread snow late week, especially just inland. Redevelops just south of SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Pretty skinny on qpf, Odd system where it doesn't seem to want to wrap the precip back to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 GFS with plenty of opportunity after the storm mid next week, hopefully it has a clue.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: GFS with plenty of opportunity after the storm mid next week, hopefully it has a clue.... I will feel much better about prospects of getting to climo here if the active pattern continues after the pattern change. I’m just dubious of it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I will feel much better about prospects of getting to climo here if the active pattern continues after the pattern change. I’m just dubious of it right now. Yeah, definitely a case of I will believe it, when I am shoveling it. However, the past few days have had a horrible look in the 12 to 16 range, now it looks serviceable at least...fingers crossed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Fwiw, the 12z GEFs members are tightly clustered with a track SE of the operational, and with a colder profile for Monday. Looks like the 0C 850 mb isotherm collapses SE between 6 and 12z ..ending up PVD-BOS, as the system makes closest pass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Well the good news is that after whatever happens last next week, you can see the window of opportunity open up for maybe 2 weeks before ridge death builds in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Should be just about the right time to set up mud season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well the good news is that after whatever happens last next week, you can see the window of opportunity open up for maybe 2 weeks before ridge death builds in. Ridge death ? there can’t be much confidence that in 3 weeks things go to crap again .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 12:07 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And it’s close for many on several systems. It’s active and with an improving cold source, at least pike north gets winter. On 1/14/2023 at 7:57 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Eps and gefs compromising a bit, as expected. A gradual step down from the shite pattern we’ve been in. On 1/14/2023 at 2:37 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Stay the course. Gradual stepdown from shite to less shite as the month unfolds to close out the first half….then we start the step up (comeback) in the second half. 32 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: GFS with plenty of opportunity after the storm mid next week, hopefully it has a clue.... SWC knows. No changes on their views…it’s coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ridge death ? SE ridge later in Feb. Seems like that will occur. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: SE ridge later in Feb. Seems like that will occur. Would that be a Dry or wet pattern if you had to lean one way , and would nne look decent or meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: SWC knows. No changes on their views…it’s coming. 1-2 week winter once again, these La Nina's have sucked for us.... Still thinking we luck out with a 15 to 25 inch total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: 1-2 week winter once again, these La Nina's have sucked for us.... Still thinking we luck out with a 15 to 25 inch total Thinking more like 3-4wks but yea, the shortness of it blows. Give me one HECS and bring on spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thinking more like 3-4wks but yea, the shortness of it blows. Give me one HECS and bring on spring. I track until mid april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: SE ridge later in Feb. Seems like that will occur. Yeah the SE ridge isn’t really showing any signs of going away, so it makes sense to assume it hangs around until proven otherwise. Hopefully we can get some blocking to make it a gradient pattern rather than full on torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, George001 said: I track until mid april You’ll be tracking dews with DIT then. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You’ll be tracking dews with DIT then. I forgot to clarify, I track snow until mid April. After that, Im going to be tracking thunderstorms, heavy rain, hurricanes, tropical storms, and possibly even heat waves. That’s the great thing about getting excited about big rainstorms, the tracking doesn’t end once winter ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Speaking of big rainstorms, I wasn’t expecting much last night but that definitely overperformed at least where I live. The models didn’t really have anything too crazy but we were getting torrential downpours. That was an awesome storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Would that be a Dry or wet pattern if you had to lean one way , and would nne look decent or meh Probably cutter risk. Not necessarily dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 It's amazing to watch the models consistently unable to forecast the pattern until 3 days out. Like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 12z Euro looks like a 6-10" event for Sunday night Monday. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Love how we can’t trust an 11 day prog out in time with regard to the the pattern. But we know a 3-4 week prog showing a SE Ridge is correct? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Man, if we can get that shortwave to track a little further east for 1/25 we'd have a miller B type storm....as it is, it''s tracking so far west but decent confluence does give front end snow. Maybe we can trend it a bit east like 1/23 has been doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Love how we can’t trust an 11 day prog out in time with regard to the the pattern. But we know a 3-4 week prog showing a SE Ridge is correct? Great point. It’s easy and makes sense to lean towards a stubborn pattern persisting, but for all we know the strat stuff could shake up the pattern and we end up with a -5 Feb. it’s unlikely but at this point we have no idea what will happen that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 33 minutes ago, George001 said: I track until mid april Yeah, why wouldn’t you if there’s a snow threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 19 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro looks like a 6-10" event for Sunday night Monday. That same stripe keeps showing up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: That same stripe keeps showing up on my undies Maybe time for a safe guard undergarment? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe time for a safe guard undergarment? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I'm still liking that post-1/25 pattern into early February....skunked or not skunked to date, it's hard to say it looks like crap. Maybe it will trend worse, but there's going to be chances there and there's an awful lot of arctic cold around too which has been absent for over a month. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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