January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Shit?

 

28 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Feels like full on spring here. Bulbs coming up, lawns nice and green with dandelions, there are hundreds of worms flooded out all over driveways and roads this morning. 

Has to be some near record departures for January. 

DXR  +12.5

HVN +11.1

GON +10.1

BDR  +8.2

 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

My current view on the next two threats:

Jan 23rd: Looks like garbage for SNE but CNE/NNE should get a nice swath of warning snows from that one...slight chance SNE can maybe get something as it exits...the best energy seems to trail the sfc low a bit, so maybe a changeover. But for now, I'd expect a shutout here.

Jan 25th: Looks like SNE could actually get something from thus one...most guidance agrees on the northern stream moving ahead of the southern stream which creates an area of confluence prior to the storm arriving. The airmass is still pretty meh, but it's probably cold enough for a decent hit on the front end...esp northern half of SNE. Still some time on this one...it could trend either way. Trending to shit wouldn't surprise me, but given the confluence, there is some room to trend this even a little better almost into pseudo-Miller B. That would be the ideal scenario....even if low probability.

That's how I see it too. Pike north and inland best shot for several inches later next week. Maybe that one trends better, but we know how that goes.

[qg_omega]

50 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Feels like full on spring here. Bulbs coming up, lawns nice and green with dandelions, there are hundreds of worms flooded out all over driveways and roads this morning. 

Has to be some near record departures for January. 

DXR  +12.5

HVN +11.1

GON +10.1

BDR  +8.2

 

 

 

I had +8 this month thinking last week or so would cool down but still maybe too cool

[wx2fish]

Nam is pretty torchy right into Central NH. Little reach around for on the backside further south.

[dryslot]

Nam is no go on the coastal plain to the coast until temps crash back SE towards the end.

[wx2fish]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

My current view on the next two threats:

Jan 23rd: Looks like garbage for SNE but CNE/NNE should get a nice swath of warning snows from that one...slight chance SNE can maybe get something as it exits...the best energy seems to trail the sfc low a bit, so maybe a changeover. But for now, I'd expect a shutout here.

Jan 25th: Looks like SNE could actually get something from thus one...most guidance agrees on the northern stream moving ahead of the southern stream which creates an area of confluence prior to the storm arriving. The airmass is still pretty meh, but it's probably cold enough for a decent hit on the front end...esp northern half of SNE. Still some time on this one...it could trend either way. Trending to shit wouldn't surprise me, but given the confluence, there is some room to trend this even a little better almost into pseudo-Miller B. That would be the ideal scenario....even if low probability.

6z EPS kinda had that Miller B-ish vibe. Hopeuflly that one pans out. 

Edit..missed your earlier post about them

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nam is no go on the coastal plain to the coast until temps crash back SE towards the end.

Yup, and we know that’s usually fraudulent. Always a long shot, but Monday is on life support here. 

Still time for the second wave.

[Typhoon Tip]

You know ... re the pattern change. 

I've been watching this aspect that last couple few days in the ensembles ( cross-guidance).  It's possible some of the smoldering consternation is also self-afflicted.   Why/what I mean by that is, we've been perhaps rushing this no sooner than it was sniffed out as even plausible some 2 weeks ago.

That is/was not helping matters.  We are/were less likely to manifest any system prior to the 27th as being winter enthusiast inspiring...   That 26th system appears to really be an '850 mb inflection' event.  Beyond which ...the span of the 40th to 60th latitudes, from B.C. to NS, descends en masse to below normal/negative anomalies.   Prior to that, the pattern may be augmenting ( or not...) in the 500 mb isohypsotic layout over the local hemisphere, and in a lot of ways that can be pointed out as being the case - suggesting the d(pattern) is actually taking place... But, I think as far as both sensible/experienced weather, and... being able to manifest systems that are more in the 'like'/d-drip potency ( LOL ...) ...seriously tho, we were not really favorable prior to the 27th, particularly over the eastern continent.   Around that date for this flood and mass field significant and deeper change has been very consistent...

Prior to this ~27th critical inflection timing ...we've largely been manifesting events in layouts more consistent with this...

 

This latter thermal layout is more apt to present challenges for realizing wintry appeals. We can't walk through a landfill and be surprised that it stinks.  The cards are stacked against us... Pick a metaphor.

One aspect I am also noticing is that out there around the 30th... there is a bulge of 850 mb temperatures ( more aggressive in the EPS ...which makes sense for it having a meridian bias in that range), where/whence the neutral line gets to about ORD-BOS before collapsing SE.   There may be significant event in there.  By that time, the cold is established, then that bulge transiently passes through...that's an opportunity.   I did take a peek at the individual members of the GEFs and there are several members (below any consensus, still ) that are interesting. 

But, otherwise, ... that looks like this winter bottoms out in the first handful of days of February - we'll see if the period suffers model "magnification correction" as it nears.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yup, and we know that’s usually fraudulent. Always a long shot, but Monday is on life support here. 

Still time for the second wave.

This is a thread the needle deal, A stronger SLP will hug, A weaker one will track a few tics east, You hate to root for the latter.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This is a thread the needle deal, A stronger SLP will hug, A weaker one will track a few tics east, You hate to root for the latter.

Right. It is what it is. I am happy that at least part of the subforum is likely to cash in. Hope we can get in on the fun too. 

[mahk_webstah]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ... re the pattern change. 

I've been watching this aspect that last couple few days in the ensembles ( cross-guidance).  It's possible some of the smoldering consternation is also self-afflicted.   Why/what I mean by that is, we've been perhaps rushing this no sooner than it was sniffed out as even plausible some 2 weeks ago.

That is/was not helping matters.  We are/were less likely to manifest any system prior to the 27th as being winter enthusiast inspiring...   That 26th system appears to really be an '850 mb inflection' event.  Beyond which ...the span of the 40th to 60th latitudes, from B.C. to NS, descends en masse to below normal/negative anomalies.   Prior to that, the pattern may be augmenting ( or not...) in the 500 mb isohypsotic layout over the local hemisphere, and in a lot of ways that can be pointed out as being the case - suggesting the d(pattern) is actually taking place... But, I think as far as both sensible/experienced weather, and... being able to manifest systems that are more in the 'like'/d-drip potency ( LOL ...) ...seriously tho, we were not really favorable prior to the 27th, particularly over the eastern continent.   Around that date for this flood and mass field significant and deeper change has been very consistent...

Prior to this ~27th critical inflection timing ...we've largely been manifesting events in layouts more consistent with this...

 

This latter thermal layout is more apt to present challenges for realizing wintry appeals. We can't walk through a landfill and be surprised that it stinks.  The cards are stacked against us... Pick a metaphor.

One aspect I am also noticing is that out there around the 30th... there is a bulge of 850 mb temperatures ( more aggressive in the EPS ...which makes sense for it having a meridian bias in that range), where/whence the neutral line gets to about ORD-BOS before collapsing SE.   There may be significant event in there.  By that time, the cold is established, then that bulge transiently passes through...that's an opportunity.   I did take a peek at the individual members of the GEFs and there are several members (below any consensus, still ) that are interesting. 

But, otherwise, ... that looks like this winter bottoms out in the first handful of days of February - we'll see if the period suffers model "magnification correction" as it nears.

no change

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro suggested the same thing the NAM is over it's last two cycles, as well.  

Both are trying sting the CCB, collapsing it back through the region later Monday.. It's likely going to be over QPF'ed if that happens.. but, I just thought it was interesting that they are attempting to do that. 

Euro version was the more impressive, too.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Right. It is what it is. I am happy that at least part of the subforum is likely to cash in. Hope we can get in on the fun too. 

25th is probably the best shot for you guys down there, I'm hopefully going to be heading north next weekend so those areas are going to cash in the next 2, So it really doesn't matter much for me down here other then patting the stats.

[Typhoon Tip]

FYI -

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0532Z FRI JAN 20 2023

...INTERMITTENT CONNECTIVITY ISSUES...

Intermittent connectivity issue with various websites starting
around 03Z, including ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov, and
aviationweather.gov, and forecast.weather.gov. NCO support is
investigating.

Please visit https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/status/messages/
for further updates.


Liddick/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[Go Kart Mozart]

The end of the NAM seems to make the next storm a bit more of a nuke when it reaches the GOM.  Better confluence for the next CT rainer?

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The end of the NAM seems to make the next storm a bit more of a nuke when it reaches the GOM.  Better confluence for the next CT rainer?

Unfortunately the end of the NAM is about useless as tits on a bull. However lets see what happens when Monday is out of here, maybe it will help reshuffle things a little

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, BrianW said:

Feels like full on spring here. Bulbs coming up, lawns nice and green with dandelions, there are hundreds of worms flooded out all over driveways and roads this morning. 

Has to be some near record departures for January. 

DXR  +12.5

HVN +11.1

GON +10.1

BDR  +8.2

 

 

 

What stands out to me is that every single day had AN max and AN min - only one low was <5° AN.

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The end of the NAM seems to make the next storm a bit more of a nuke when it reaches the GOM.  Better confluence for the next CT rainer?

GFS tries with a high building in, but s/w shooting well west means we rain.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GFS tries with a high building in, but s/w shooting well west means we rain.

decent trend in SE Canada though. the more confluence, the better 

would be tough to get anything more than a thump though

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS tries with a high building in, but s/w shooting well west means we rain.

We are building character 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

decent trend in SE Canada though. the more confluence, the better 

would be tough to get anything more than a thump though

Won't matter with that s/w. 

[RDRY]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Won't matter with that s/w. 

Seems like the system will just fall in behind the confluence and still cut.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

decent trend in SE Canada though. the more confluence, the better 

would be tough to get anything more than a thump though

Yeah that’s a big improvement. There is a stronger high to the north that hangs on longer before moving out. I really feel that the gfs trended in the right direction for the 25th. It has a low in Buffalo, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s over for us. Although the low track isn’t ideal for SNE the improvements with the high gives us a bit more (still not much) wiggle room. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RDRY said:

Seems like the system will just fall in behind the confluence and still cut.

The airmass is bullshit anyways. Will be more for NNE.

[DJln491]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The airmass is bullshit anyways. Will be more for NNE.

Wish I had a dollar for every time we had a storm with a bullshit airmass this winter.  I'd have like 7 bucks.

[RDRY]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The airmass is bullshit anyways. Will be more for NNE.

Yeah, the track is fine for interior. But the rain/snow line extends way north and west of the system.

[powderfreak]

GGEM does its usual and goes nuts for the next two events.

GFS is a bit more subdue.

 

[Cold Miser]

48 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Unfortunately the end of the NAM is about useless as tits on a bull. However lets see what happens when Monday is out of here, maybe it will help reshuffle things a little

Unless it's a cow that identifies as a bull.

[UnitedWx]

10 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Unless it's a cow that identifies as a bull.

 Well you got me there! It is 2023.... Even the weather models don't identify as their former selves, just ask the Euro

[CoastalWx]

Ukie looks like it shifted south for Monday. Gets ORH county into SNH pretty good.