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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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The Monday storm is going to be incredibly frustrating for snow lovers north & west of 495. Low pressure center forecast to track over ACK and its rain all the way into southwestern NH. Usually doing naked twister with the coastal front with that storm track here. But it seems not in winter of 2022-2023.

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6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Looked at WPC and GYX for next two storms.  Pretty enthusiastic.  They project over 2”qpf and seems to be mostly snow here.  Interior for CNE and SNE have a shot.  These are coastal so messenger ticks on the table.

Fairly narrow swath for monday.floop-ecmwf_full-2023012006.sn10_024h-imp.us_ne.gif

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I dunno... that 06z GFS was too close to an isothermal hammer over ORH to dismiss Monday's system.  

The heavier snow axis is likely ~ Capital district of easter NY up through the lower Greens/Whites, but I'd put a wild-card band between that axis and ~ ORH and wait it out through the weekend runs.  That's like a single tick from being 6" of dense paste.

Threading the needle 101

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Feels like full on spring here. Bulbs coming up, lawns nice and green with dandelions, there are hundreds of worms flooded out all over driveways and roads this morning. 

Has to be some near record departures for January. 

DXR  +12.5

HVN +11.1

GON +10.1

BDR  +8.2

 
 

 

month_1__year_2023__station_HVN__network_CT_ASOS__dpi_100.png

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EPS looked pretty decent for 1/25 at 06z...prob the coldest run I've seen yet on that one. Kind of a classic SWFE look but there's actually just enough cold around to give a good hit....some of them sort of morph it into a miller B but as of now, I am skeptical of that evolution. But a little more confluence and we could see it redevelop soon enough for that.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS looked pretty decent for 1/25 at 06z...prob the coldest run I've seen yet on that one. Kind of a classic SWFE look but there's actually just enough cold around to give a good hit....some of them sort of morph it into a miller B but as of now, I am skeptical of that evolution. But a little more confluence and we could see it redevelop soon enough for that.

Will, does that system make it up north(northern Maine)?  Tentatively have plans to head up that morning, and wondering if we should give it another day or two, if it heads all the way up? I know it’s 5 days out still, just wondering if it gets up that far north? 

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Will, does that system make it up north(northern Maine)?  Tentatively have plans to head up that morning, and wondering if we should give it another day or two, if it heads all the way up? I know it’s 5 days out still, just wondering if it gets up that far north? 

Yeah 1/25 gets up there...1/23 might miss them though...or at least the really heavy stuff. Tough call...something more like the GFS hits N ME on 1/23 but NAM and Euro are kind of scrapers for them.

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My current view on the next two threats:

Jan 23rd: Looks like garbage for SNE but CNE/NNE should get a nice swath of warning snows from that one...slight chance SNE can maybe get something as it exits...the best energy seems to trail the sfc low a bit, so maybe a changeover. But for now, I'd expect a shutout here.

Jan 25th: Looks like SNE could actually get something from thus one...most guidance agrees on the northern stream moving ahead of the southern stream which creates an area of confluence prior to the storm arriving. The airmass is still pretty meh, but it's probably cold enough for a decent hit on the front end...esp northern half of SNE. Still some time on this one...it could trend either way. Trending to shit wouldn't surprise me, but given the confluence, there is some room to trend this even a little better almost into pseudo-Miller B. That would be the ideal scenario....even if low probability.

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