January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[moneypitmike]

Encountered several rabbits during my dog's pre-dawn walk.  December of yore???

[moneypitmike]

Hopefully we'll see something today other than the GFS with some semblance of the Friday event.

[Cold Miser]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein keeping all safe as we move into spring 

 

Ring in the new year with ticks and, beer...

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The main runs always blow.

 

2 hours ago, Kitz Craver said:

6z GFS says, what up Georgie?! I’m liking the perfectly timed Scooter high.

Right on cue.....the powers that be that claim that there is no difference are full of shit.

[CoastalWx]

I wouldn’t worry about deterministic runs this far out anyways. I feel like all guidance has a signal for something. Regardless of what happens, that seems to be when the door opens to more of a potential wintry look. However, it is not a cold look overall. GEFS continue to look better than the other guidance, although EPS is workable, especially interior.

[CoastalWx]

This active PAC jet is Nino like. So one thing I do like seeing, are the modeled coastals as this is a pattern conducive to those. Obviously Ptype to be determined, but for those tired of Nina, this a refreshing look. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn’t worry about deterministic runs this far out anyways. I feel like all guidance has a signal for something. Regardless of what happens, that seems to be when the door opens to more of a potential wintry look. However, it is not a cold look overall. GEFS continue to look better than the other guidance, although EPS is workable, especially interior.

I will take an active look that isn't very cold in January....dare we say January 2003 like?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will take an active look that isn't very cold in January....dare we say January 2003 like?

That was a frigid month though. Couple of huggers to start. 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a frigid month though. Couple of huggers to start. 

Retro that mean ridge a bit back toward Rockies like weeklies and GEFS have and it would prob start getting a lot colder. Not Jan 2003 cold…that is one of the colder Januarys in the pst few decades…but still colder than we’ve been. 
 

Kind of weird seeing very low gradient in the height field in a Niña though. Might give us some chances in a meh pattern coming up here in the next 7-10 days. 

[WinterWolf]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Right on cue.....the powers that be that claim that there is no difference are full of shit.

I was just thinking that too….it’s like clockwork. I don’t know how they can say such nonsense, when the off hour runs always go  awry.   
 

They are awry when there is a big system imminent, and they’ll show it going out to sea, or some other disaster.  And then like this at longer leads, they show a storm when the on hour runs show nothing.  
 

But hey, that’s no longer the case right?

When we can plainly see that it surely is. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Retro that mean ridge a bit back toward Rockies like weeklies and GEFS have and it would prob start getting a lot colder. Not Jan 2003 cold…that is one of the colder Januarys in the pst few decades…but still colder than we’ve been. 
 

Kind of weird seeing very low gradient in the height field in a Niña though. Might give us some chances in a meh pattern coming up here in the next 7-10 days. 

It is weird, but kind of a refreshing change. At least as currently modeled. It’s got my interest anyways. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a frigid month though. Couple of huggers to start. 

I know...just busting 'em.

[40/70 Benchmark]

TBH, I would rather take my chances with a meh airmass in January then arctic air....I am just so done with CJ steam lines and subby slivers. Not to mentioned that I'd take a foot of paste over 18" of dust.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It is weird, but kind of a refreshing change. At least as currently modeled. It’s got my interest anyways. 

It’s basically split flow with above normal heights over most of Canada but BN over the south in the LR. Very El Niño-ish. It can work as long as you keep the flow split…Jan ‘83 was like that and so was Jan 2016….but I like how in this case, the STJ wouldn’t be as raging. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know...just busting 'em.

Even near you that month left a little on the table. Not much after the first week. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even near you that month left a little on the table. Not much after the first week. 

Yea, I have mentioned....I was commuting out to Devens getting ready to deploy with marines, and it was like 18" of powder there, compared to about a foot of cement in Wilmington.

I'd rather that, than a foot of powder to 18" a the coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s basically split flow with above normal heights over most of Canada but BN over the south in the LR. Very El Niño-ish. It can work as long as you keep the flow split…Jan ‘83 was like that and so was Jan 2016….but I like how in this case, the STJ wouldn’t be as raging. 

One thing that was clear to me dating back to last fall was that the Pacific would behave in January.

This is our big dog window in a about a bit over a week to like the 20th.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Winter classic looks to be about as warm as the Red Sox home opener.

Yup, good way to tear a few knees up on soft ice.  I had gotten invited a few weeks ago but declined over Christmas based on what looked like a rainy forecast.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Encountered several rabbits during my dog's pre-dawn walk.  December of yore???

They are out and about year-round in my yard.  I’ve seen them hopping through a foot of snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

The MJO, for the first time in recent months, is at least coughing momentum through lower amplitude phase 8-1-2. 

I Wonder if this weird linear jet between Japan and California is signaling constructive interference... just enough to allow that to happen. hmm

Thing is... zonal flow types tend to precede the genesis of ridging - that's FAST 101 ( course in Forecast Analytics and Statistical Techniques for the daily double !)  Anyway, "tend" is a bit shy of determinism. Still it creates a kind of competition for the Pacific.   That zonal jet argues that an eventual east Pacific ridge begins to manifest ..eventually.   La Nina on the other hand, doesn't correlate very well with either this modeled torpedo across the Basin ( it's anomalous looking even for "NINO" frankly - ), or any subsequent NE Pacific ridging. 

( as an aside, the Nina footprint has been pretty coherent this autumn into early winter. Contrasting, this modeled happenstance ( which hasn't actually happened just yet...) would argue for a decoupled Nina - or an attempt in the mid latitudes to do so.  Here we are...nearing mid winter, and yet another ENSO is detaching ... )

NCEP has a 70+% chance for neutralization of the ENSO by Feb-April...  I mean it's possible this is the beginning of that taking place?  

I'm sort of simultaneously speculating two aspects, here: 

The NE Pacific as we get into January emerging -EPO and/or cyclic +PNA underneath, or both.

The other is whether this 'apparent' decoupling Nina state is the very beginning harbinger of its demise.  I think it is somewhat important to consider, because the last 10 years worth of ENSOs have been increasingly unstable/less coherent in the hemisphere, overall. Sort of implies a fragility there... If NCEP wants to pull the rug out from under the index anyway, it thus seems like an atmospheric abandon could happen relatively fast.   

The preceding was probably more for the seasonal thread.. 

As to next weeks shenanigans...  You know, about 20 years ago... even 10 years ago, a straight linear delivered series of troughs off the Pacific were not always lending to model performance over the eastern continent.  This was notoriously error prone.   There have been advances ( it is assumed - I haven't kept a journal of release notes or anything) in the data assimilation techniques.  I looking over the Pacific ... the mechanics that end up in that crumbling morass of vaguely organized wave out around D7-9 is still out west of the date line, embedded in that modeled anomalous jet.   I don't think even in modern times that lends very well to continuity... There could be shadowing by parsing problems..

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The MJO, for the first time in recent months, is at least coughing momentum through lower amplitude phase 8-1-2. 

I Wonder if this weird linear jet between Japan and California is constructively interfering there just enough to allow that to happen. hmm

Thing is... zonal flow types tend to precede the genesis of ridging - that's FAST 101 ( course in Forecast Analytics and Statistical Techniques for the daily double !)  Anyway, "tend" is a bit shy of determinism. Still it creates a kind of competition for the Pacific.   That zonal jet argues that an eventual east Pacific ridge begins to manifest ..eventually.   La Nina on the other hand, doesn't correlate very well with either this modeled torpedo across the Basin ( it's anomalous looking even for "NINO" frankly - ), or any subsequent NE Pacific ridging. 

( as an aside, the Nina footprint has been pretty coherent this autumn into early winter. Contrasting, this modeled happenstance ( which hasn't actually happened just yet...) would argue for a decoupled Nina - or an attempt in the mid latitudes to do so.  Here we are...nearing mid winter, and yet another ENSO is detaching ... )

NCEP has a 70+% chance for neutralization of the ENSO by Feb-April...  I mean it's possible this is the beginning of that taking place?  

I'm sort of simultaneously speculating two aspects, here: 

The NE Pacific as we get into January emerging -EPO and/or cyclic +PNA underneath, or both.

The other is whether this 'apparent' decoupling Nina state is the very beginning harbinger of its demise.  I think it is somewhat important to consider, because the last 10 years worth of ENSOs have been increasingly unstable/less coherent in the hemisphere, overall. Sort of implies a fragility there... If NCEP wants to pull the rug out from under the index anyway, it thus seems like an atmospheric abandon could happen relatively fast.   

The preceding was probably more for the seasonal thread.. 

As to next weeks shenanigans...  You know, about 20 years ago... even 10 years ago, a straight linear delivered series of troughs off the Pacific were not always lending to model performance over the eastern continent.  This was notoriously error prone.   There have been advances ( it is assumed - I haven't kept a journal of release notes or anything) in the data assimilation techniques.  I looking over the Pacific ... the mechanics that end up in that crumbling morass of vaguely organized wave out around D7-9 is still out west of the date line, embedded in that modeled anomalous jet.   I don't think even in modern times that lends very well to continuity... There could be shadowing by parsing problems..

 

Both IMO, but greater confidence in PNA.

I feel like the one mistake that I may have made is not emphasizing the rapid decay of la nina enough with respect to February, but we'll see....the friendly Pacific in January was a no-brainer...and I have a big March, but February maybe somewhat better than advertised given the apparent decay of la nina.

This season is a looooong way from over.

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Shaping up for a couple of great days for yard work.

Things I have said leading up to New Years never before the past 10 years.

Fixed.

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I have mentioned....I was commuting out to Devens getting ready to deploy with marines, and it was like 18" of powder there, compared to about a foot of cement in Wilmington.

I'd rather that, than a foot of powder to 18" a the coast.

I’ll take a foot of mash and you can have the 18” of powder.

[jbenedet]

Still didn't winterize the moped. Glad I followed the Newington geese crew. Took it out around town today.

Noice.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

This active PAC jet is Nino like. So one thing I do like seeing, are the modeled coastals as this is a pattern conducive to those. Obviously Ptype to be determined, but for those tired of Nina, this a refreshing look. 

11 likes lol

Anyone tired of la nina?

[Baroclinic Zone]

21 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'll head out tomorrow most likely.  Do lawn clean up.

Done

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll take a foot of mash and you can have the 18” of powder.

I’ll take either of them, won’t discriminate lol.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

11 likes lol

Anyone tired of la nina?

Yep if you wanted a break from La Niña, the upcoming pattern has granted that wish. Both N PAC and the North America pattern look like El Niño boilerplate. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep if you wanted a break from La Niña, the upcoming pattern has granted that wish. Both N PAC and the North America pattern look like El Niño boilerplate. 

So I take it this is a relatively good thing? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep if you wanted a break from La Niña, the upcoming pattern has granted that wish. Both N PAC and the North America pattern look like El Niño boilerplate. 

I feel like many folks are generalizing this season due to ENSO and are underestimating the potential that it has to do a complete 180. 

This is absolutely explosive potential....and I don't toss those words around like George. It probably won't be entirely realized, but nonetheless...