January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I prefer to just maintain an objective vigil … But I suppose as an approach to this engagement either method is probably going to end up in the same mentality - semantics. 

Having said that… gosh, not a good series of runs last night regarding any of these possibilities we’ve been tracking over the next 10 days – essentially in one run the consensus depiction wiped out multiple cycles of trend towards better solutions for winter enthusiast.

Such is life in the dreaded needle threader circumstance… which naturally means that there’s some probability they’ll come back obviously   

It may snow in those systems. But obviously all can see it’s way out towards the capital District of eastern New York up into northern New England…

That’s just the winter we’re having thus far, even if it hasn’t performed particularly well N-W, either. It seems the model runs last night just clicked back into the trend of the season… Mm part of keeping an open mind is being open to the possibility that nothing will happen – just sayn’. 

You know if I have to be blunt even the pattern change itself more so looks like it’s got short legs on it… So others have intimated this over the last couple of days. I’m not sure I disagree. The long awaited new paradigm may limp into the first week of February after which I don’t know. Hm if we really do slip into a negative PNA sans blocking there’s nothing about the last 10 years of climate that suggest we won’t soar into the 70s for another historic run of it next month. We’ll see if an extension corrects in, going forward

I feel like I have kept an open mind to the possibility that nothing will happen. 

[CoastalWx]

Definitely flatter and east, but it's warm at 925 to the lakes region into ME. Srly flow ahead ftl. Needs more help.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely flatter and east, but it's warm at 925 to the lakes region into ME. Srly flow ahead ftl. Needs more help.

Need something more like the NAM to have a chance....GFS went the right direction to try for it, but you can see how ridiculous of a needle-threader it is for SNE. Almost not worth even tracking here....but we're watching models anyway for 1/25 so I guess we're gonna see it one way or the other. Hopefully it doesn't come back in amped...it would be nice for at least part of NE to get something from it.

[wkd]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well it's probably subjective. Maybe below 30-35"? Lets say my long term (Not 30 yr which is probably inflated due to short term cycles) is around 45" or so.  I don't even have 6" on the season yet. 

Thanks.   I've had zero snow on the ground so far.  I'm still thinking February-early March produce (just because they usually do).  Although there are many exceptions, my experience here is that January is usually cold and dry, which is the worst for a snow lover and one who has to pay the bills for heating oil.

[brooklynwx99]

groundhog day?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

groundhog day?

We are going to need a bigger boat south of the pike.. 

[ORH_wxman]

The 25th on GFS almost looks like today's storm.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 25th on GFS almost looks like today's storm.

CT torches on that run lol persistence wins.. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Rain to Maine.  Fitting.. 

It redevelops....it's basically a SWFE, but any marginal cold gets mostly advected out due to a weak low front-running the main system up in Canada.....it's the same theme....we cannot buy a solid high.

It does give some snow though north of the pike and more up into NH/ME. The 25th is another storm where if there is any type of high, the airmass would be more than good enough for snow even though it's not an arctic airmass.

[CoastalWx]

At least Dallas gets snow. LOL.

[qg_omega]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

groundhog day?

fits the pattern to a T

[ORH_wxman]

It's ironic that only today's system has any type of decent high....and of course, today's system has the worst airmass of any of the next 3 threats.

 

Rearranging the pieces but they always follow Murphy's Law....whatever type of combo gives the least snow.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It redevelops....it's basically a SWFE, but any marginal cold gets mostly advected out due to a weak low front-running the main system up in Canada.....it's the same theme....we cannot buy a solid high.

It does give some snow though north of the pike and more up into NH/ME. The 25th is another storm where if there is any type of high, the airmass would be more than good enough for snow even though it's not an arctic airmass.

I think it’s a full blown Rat. I think I’ll be heading up to northern Maine middle of next week…they’ll be buried. I’ll get my fill  up there.  Nothing happening here.
 

Where’s the nice look we’ve been seeing? Does it set in after the 26th? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I think it’s a full blown Rat. I think I’ll be heading up to northern Maine middle of next week…they’ll be buried. I’ll get my fill  up there.  Nothing happening here.
 

Where’s the nice look we’ve been seeing? Does it set in after the 26th? 

The great pattern will end up being a cold shot behind that storm.. Odds are its cold and dry for a few days before the deep trough sets up in the west again.. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

The great pattern will end up being a cold shot behind that storm.. Odds are its cold and dry for a few days before the deep trough sets up in the west again.. 

ya probably. Lol. 

[qg_omega]

Next week on the GFS, this is not a pattern change.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I think it’s a full blown Rat. I think I’ll be heading up to northern Maine middle of next week…they’ll be buried. I’ll get my fill  up there.  Nothing happening here.
 

Where’s the nice look we’ve been seeing? Does it set in after the 26th? 

Yeah after the 25th, we get arctic air in here for the first time since Xmas Eve. So we'll see if we can pop something in the final week of the month or early February while the PV is close by us....we can handle some revision back to western troughing as long as the PV is nearby Hudson Bay or eastward. Once it retreats back toward the pole or if it ends up in western Canada, then we're cooked.

There's a possibility it could sort of split too...EPS hints at that....one piece does end up in western Canada but another is to our northeast over Labador....that type of setup can work too. Early Feb 2017 was like that when we got blitzed with multiple storms.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

The great pattern will end up being a cold shot behind that storm.. Odds are its cold and dry for a few days before the deep trough sets up in the west again.. 

Been saying it for days. I’m not ready to punt next week, but I’ve got the special teams warming up, and I’m calling up to the box to discuss pulling starters and putting hefty bags next to each locker for the end of season clean out. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Next week on the GFS, this is not a pattern change.

 

Post-1/25 is objectively a pattern change though.

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Post-1/25 is objectively a pattern change though.

its cold behind a cutter....the trough will re-establish on the west coast.  No signs to suggest FEB will be anything but well above normal.

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM is more like what you want to see for 1/25 if we're not getting a coastal out of it....you have that front-running shortwave in Canada get well out ahead of the southern stream piece which allows a decent high to set up. That at least gives you a solid chance for a SWFE.

[WinterWolf]

This season gonna blow away 19-20, and even kill 11-12 as the king of the Rats. This one is almost comical now. Raleigh Durham type snow totals for the season. I’m At 4.3” so far lmao. Can we stay under 10” for the season?  Let’s go for the ultimate Rat. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

This season gonna blow away 19-20, and even kill 11-12 as the king of the Rats. This one is almost comical now. Raleigh Durham type snow totals for the season. I’m At 4.3” so far lmao. Can we stay under 10” for the season?  Let’s go for the ultimate Rat. 

2.9" here.. worst season ever was 16" for me.. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This season gonna blow away 19-20, and even kill 11-12 as the king of the Rats. This one is almost comical now. Raleigh Durham type snow totals for the season. I’m At 4.3” so far lmao. Can we stay under 10” for the season?  Let’s go for the ultimate Rat. 

I'm at 0

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

its cold behind a cutter....the trough will re-establish on the west coast.  No signs to suggest FEB will be anything but well above normal.

The longevity of the pattern change can be debated, but lets not pretend it's not a pattern change. I actually agree February is probably going to revert back to typical Feb Nina climo....but ignoring the fundamental shift in the NHEM pattern at least for a while post-1/25 isn't being honest.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This season gonna blow away 19-20, and even kill 11-12 as the king of the Rats. This one is almost comical now. Raleigh Durham type snow totals for the season. I’m At 4.3” so far lmao. Can we stay under 10” for the season?  Let’s go for the ultimate Rat. 

As down as I am on this “winter”, and lord knows I’m about as low as you can go, I don’t think we touch those seasons. Feb is peak climo and while I expect at least half to torch, we can luck into a nickel and dime. 

The bigger reason is March. I do expect significant changes in that month to allow for legit opportunities.

Game will long be over, but a few pity events will make it 63-24 rather than 63-3. Enough for some to give this slow motion disaster a D or C-.  

[Go Kart Mozart]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This season gonna blow away 19-20, and even kill 11-12 as the king of the Rats. This one is almost comical now. Raleigh Durham type snow totals for the season. I’m At 4.3” so far lmao. Can we stay under 10” for the season?  Let’s go for the ultimate Rat. 

What year was the tuck-rule game?  I believe that was our only accumulating snow in SWCT.  A major rat winter.

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

2.9" here.. worst season ever was 16" for me.. 

this may beat it. Even in 11-12, which was horrid, I had about 18”.  And in 19-20 I was in mid and upper 20’s.  This is a whole different Rat. It’s gonna be the king I think. 

[Ginx snewx]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's ironic that only today's system has any type of decent high....and of course, today's system has the worst airmass of any of the next 3 threats.

 

Rearranging the pieces but they always follow Murphy's Law....whatever type of combo gives the least snow.

Going 10 days with 3 to 4" qpf and no snow in January wow lol. What a month long torch. 

[Spanks45]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Been saying it for days. I’m not ready to punt next week, but I’ve got the special teams warming up, and I’m calling up to the box to discuss pulling starters and putting hefty bags next to each locker for the end of season clean out. 

Regardless of any look at this point...until something shows that forecasting persistence is wrong, I think the assumption should be rain for the most part down here... I am sure once we get some artic air, the storms will disappear and Buffalo will have feet of snow again.