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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is quite a bit better looking for 1/25-26.

Better high-pressure expression over Quebec allows for a little more wiggle room there.  

People still need to pump the brakes on optimism. I don’t like this whole needle threader shit… It’s pissing me off actually

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Better high-pressure expression over Quebec allows for a little more wiggle room there.  

People still need to pump the brakes on optimism. I don’t like this whole needle threader shit… It’s pissing me off actually

Yeah this run had a nice little min-area of confluence set up ahead of the storm, which gives you some wiggle room. It's still somewhat precarious, but if that confluence is there on future runs consistently, then we'd have a much more legit chance at a good storm. For now, still model fodder.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s amazing how the GEFS retrogrades everything at the end of the run more or less showing the demise of the good pattern not too far into February.  Like I said yesterday-we have at most a 15 day window in sne to cash in.  If we fail by 2/10 pack it in.

Sometimes things take longer to breakdown too, just like they take longer to get going….goes both ways. 

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7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s amazing how the GEFS retrogrades everything at the end of the run more or less showing the demise of the good pattern not too far into February.  Like I said yesterday-we have at most a 15 day window in sne to cash in.  If we fail by 2/10 pack it in.

GEFS look active and cold enough for us. PV in a decent spot. Might be some messy events, but I'll roll the dice. 

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s amazing how the GEFS retrogrades everything at the end of the run more or less showing the demise of the good pattern not too far into February.  Like I said yesterday-we have at most a 15 day window in sne to cash in.  If we fail by 2/10 pack it in.

Day 15 has looked like that on GEFS for quite some time.  It’s the favorable trend day 8-12 that’s impressive. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah we'll see. I think we'll have some time after that period,  before it probably does get more hostile. 

Yeah I put 2/10 which is a week after the end of GEFS.  Maybe we’ll buy another week which would be perfect for me as we head to FL for maybe 1-2 weeks or more.

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yeah I put 2/10 which is a week after the end of GEFS.  Maybe we’ll buy another week which would be perfect for me as we head to FL for maybe 1-2 weeks or more.

Just as the models would show the changes for the better after the 10-day which was not coming to fruition. It seems like it now is happening.

I'm not as worried however that 15 days is showing the pattern going back to a bad look as they've been very volatile thus far.... But we shall see. 

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