wxeyeNH Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, dendrite said: idk...I've been loving this winter. Low heating fuel costs and not much to clean up. Brian, I think our luck may have run out. The system tomorrow night and 2 nor'easters to follow. If they don't cut too much we could be digging out next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Icon is snowy for the 23rd. That thing usually spits out Dr No solutions too. Something to watch at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just now, wxeyeNH said: Brian, I think our luck may have run out. The system tomorrow night and 2 nor'easters to follow. If they don't cut too much we could be digging out next week I'm ready for a snowy stretch...especially if it doesn't come with the excessive cold. Cold enough for white is good enough for me. This may be our peak stretch of a pathetic winter so let's get it as deep as possible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Torch 51.4/39.9 So you have pretty much had about a week of winter weather this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, kdxken said: No changes: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, George001 said: The Canadian trended nw with the 25th storm, it has a low in Chicago. Due to the fact that I have finally been beaten down after obnoxiously calling every storm a blizzard for the past three years, I am convinced that it is onto something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I think the main thing to watch with 1/23 is seeing how far E the SS piece escapes. the reason why the ICON works IMO is because the southern stream leaks eastward, suppressing heights out ahead of the main trough and leading to a coastal low ... the GFS has been trending in that direction with the SS vort, which is why we've seen east ticks since 00z .... this is certainly not a good setup for the coast, but I would keep an eye on this, since the system will be very dynamic. anywhere NW of the SLP has a shot of legitimately cooling due to strong FGEN, good 250mb venting, and lots of PVA root for the SS energy to be a bit quicker to prevent a clean phase, if anything. luckily, it seems like things have been trending a bit more progressively as we've headed towards an event anyway, so there's that. I would definitely feel better if I lived NW of 95 into NH / C MA Quick illustration/expo on venting and larger synoptic mechanics ...this system has the classic set up really... One could argue ( maybe) that these two aspects below, could situated a little closer in x-coordinate, but this is a very classic looking couplet with 300 mb evac/entrance jet in New England (left), whilst a powerful 500 mb wind max is torpedoing its exit region into the near M/A/N/E coastal waters (right). The region between these areas will have augmented UVM potential ( lift )... This does not say speak to rain vs snow. It's a pretty common look associated with more vigorous winter storm genesis, everywhere really. But, seeing this is an indication for potential vigorous development, in both degrees of extend and rate of change. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Quick illustration/expo on venting and larger synoptic mechanics ...this system has the classic set up really... One could argue ( maybe) that these two aspects below, could situated a little closer in x-coordinate, but this is a very classic looking coupled with 300 mb evac/entrance jet in New England, whilst a powerful 500 mb wind max is torpedoing its exit region into the near M/A/N/E coastal waters. The region between these areas will have augment UVM potential ( lift )... This does not say speak to rain vs snow. It's a pretty common look associated with more vigorous winter storm genesis, everywhere really. But, seeing this is an indication for potential vigorous development, in both degrees of extend and rate of change. exactly. this looks like a very dynamic system, and whoever is NW of the main low can see deform action for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 here's a good illustration of what I mean wrt the phasing and eventual location. not sure if you agree the GEFS has been steadily trending towards a faster SS vort: this likely leads to a later / sloppier phase, which ends up leading to latitude gain at a later time, pushing the vort S but maintaining its strength, similar to what the ICON does this is also shown by the SLP spread... we've seen a continuous shift towards more of a coastal low as opposed to a lakes runner so, again, I really only favor this for the interior, but if you want to track something even if near the coast, I think this is worth it. just set your expectations to 0 if you're coastal 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Icon is snowy for the 23rd. That thing usually spits out Dr No solutions too. Something to watch at least Well... it really isn't too far at all from what the GFS is showing, BUT it's the ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It has nothing to do with the past 3 years. The trough is in the Midwest with the western ridge axis offshore for the 25-26th threat, I don’t like seeing that if looking for snow in my area. Almost looks similar to the Christmas week setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Well... it really isn't too far at all from what the GFS is showing, BUT it's the ICON We’re also shifting into a better pattern with a better airmass to tap into and while the best isn’t until late month…we can trend favorably (or unfavorably) with specific threats as model forecasting has an increased delta with large scale changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah gonna need another tick or two cooler for mostly snow here. Some snow to a cold rain on this run. Not that far off though, So i could see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 GEFS picking up on next week, too 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Back to Brian’s hood......I thought of unions between libbies and magas producing a generation of magbies. Who wants to do the movie? Beautiful day to walk today. Snowblower still lonely and given the expectations for Friday it probably won’t be enough to use it. Winter rolls on. I thought the long range looked pretty good on the overnight runs. Give me my 2 weeks of winter dammit! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Man GEFS really stretch out that polar vortex the last few runs, getting better each run days 7-9.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Unc is pretty good 1/23! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 I'm not too confident of anything great here but at least up north should start looking good for the skiers and snowmobilers. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Unc is pretty good 1/23! Eastern goalpost at the moment. Hope it has a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS picking up on next week, too Quite the improvement around the 26 as well over previous cycles. Suggest the operational is along the Northwestern envelope of plausible solutions within the cluster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 49 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No changes: Don’t get it twisted. That is a fantastic look. And it’s quite different than the crap maps you and Crooklyn been passin’ around all season. I’m saying we cut on Monday and I’ll reassess and see that H5 maps still look like this at day 5. If so, weenies rejoice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just now, jbenedet said: Don’t get it twisted. That is a fantastic look. And it’s quite different than the crap maps you and Crooklyn been passin’ around all season. I’m saying we cut on Monday and I’ll reassess and see that H5 maps still look like this at day 5. If so, weenies rejoice. are you aware that you could get smoked this weekend? be honest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: are you aware that you could get smoked this weekend? be honest If you mean Monday, yea, there’s a chance. Sure. But I think odds favor strongly against. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Trends are our friends. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Unc is pretty good 1/23! Was wondering how it looked, pivotals maps are all blank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Does look colder throughout New England to the end of the month. I've had enough of this 50-degree crap. Just like to get a solid base so it looks like winter for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: Was wondering how it looked, pivotals maps are all blank 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Was wondering how it looked, pivotals maps are all blank QPF/sim rad is coming out on weather.us now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Don’t get it twisted. That is a fantastic look. And it’s quite different than the crap maps you and Crooklyn been passin’ around all season. I’m saying we cut on Monday and I’ll reassess and see that H5 maps still look like this at day 5. If so, weenies rejoice. 8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Is that mini fridge located anywhere near Woodford, VT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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