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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Brian,  I think our luck may have run out.  The system tomorrow night and 2 nor'easters to follow.  If they don't cut too much we could be digging out next week

I'm ready for a snowy stretch...especially if it doesn't come with the excessive cold. Cold enough for white is good enough for me. This may be our peak stretch of a pathetic winter so let's get it as deep as possible.

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20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think the main thing to watch with 1/23 is seeing how far E the SS piece escapes. the reason why the ICON works IMO is because the southern stream leaks eastward, suppressing heights out ahead of the main trough and leading to a coastal low

...

the GFS has been trending in that direction with the SS vort, which is why we've seen east ticks since 00z

....

this is certainly not a good setup for the coast, but I would keep an eye on this, since the system will be very dynamic. anywhere NW of the SLP has a shot of legitimately cooling due to strong FGEN, good 250mb venting, and lots of PVA

root for the SS energy to be a bit quicker to prevent a clean phase, if anything. luckily, it seems like things have been trending a bit more progressively as we've headed towards an event anyway, so there's that. I would definitely feel better if I lived NW of 95 into NH / C MA

Quick illustration/expo on venting and larger synoptic mechanics ...this system has the classic set up really... One could argue ( maybe) that these two aspects below, could situated a little closer in x-coordinate, but this is a very classic looking couplet with 300 mb evac/entrance jet in New England (left), whilst a powerful 500 mb wind max is torpedoing its exit region into the near M/A/N/E coastal waters (right).  

image.png.32c63aae3bf2054ed29dc5f40446bdd9.png

 

The region between these areas will have augmented UVM potential ( lift )...

This does not say speak to rain vs snow. It's a pretty common look associated with more vigorous winter storm genesis, everywhere really.  But, seeing this is an indication for potential vigorous development, in both degrees of extend and rate of change.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Quick illustration/expo on venting and larger synoptic mechanics ...this system has the classic set up really... One could argue ( maybe) that these two aspects below, could situated a little closer in x-coordinate, but this is a very classic looking coupled with 300 mb evac/entrance jet in New England, whilst a powerful 500 mb wind max is torpedoing its exit region into the near M/A/N/E coastal waters.  

image.png.32c63aae3bf2054ed29dc5f40446bdd9.png

 

The region between these areas will have augment UVM potential ( lift )...

This does not say speak to rain vs snow. It's a pretty common look associated with more vigorous winter storm genesis, everywhere really.  But, seeing this is an indication for potential vigorous development, in both degrees of extend and rate of change.

exactly. this looks like a very dynamic system, and whoever is NW of the main low can see deform action for sure

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here's a good illustration of what I mean wrt the phasing and eventual location. not sure if you agree

the GEFS has been steadily trending towards a faster SS vort:

gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh78_trend.thumb.gif.ef76dbb9477ea6cb40bc07c575a8922d.gif

this likely leads to a later / sloppier phase, which ends up leading to latitude gain at a later time, pushing the vort S but maintaining its strength, similar to what the ICON does

gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh114_trend.thumb.gif.87f3cf0e0b9335b89ae8fd0b60fe7a62.gif

this is also shown by the SLP spread... we've seen a continuous shift towards more of a coastal low as opposed to a lakes runner

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_fh108_trend.thumb.gif.99aafb5d8f8fff09cfd9a4f4ec3f7355.gif

so, again, I really only favor this for the interior, but if you want to track something even if near the coast, I think this is worth it. just set your expectations to 0 if you're coastal 

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2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Well... it really isn't too far at all from what the GFS is showing, BUT it's the ICON

We’re also shifting into a better pattern with a better airmass to tap into and while the best isn’t until late month…we can trend favorably (or unfavorably) with specific threats as model forecasting has an increased delta with large scale changes. 

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Back to Brian’s hood......I thought of unions between libbies and magas  producing a generation of magbies.   Who wants to do the movie?   Beautiful day to walk today.   Snowblower still lonely and given the expectations for Friday it probably won’t be enough to use it.   Winter rolls on.   
 

I thought the long range looked pretty good on the overnight runs.   Give me my 2 weeks of winter dammit!

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49 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No changes:

image.thumb.png.5712365053e95d31f9228e6bfe1b4f7c.png

Don’t get it twisted. That is a fantastic look. And it’s quite different than the crap maps you and Crooklyn been passin’ around all season.

 

I’m saying we cut on Monday and I’ll reassess and see that H5 maps still look like this at day 5. If so, weenies rejoice.

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Just now, jbenedet said:

Don’t get it twisted. That is a fantastic look. And it’s quite different than the crap maps you and Crooklyn been passin’ around all season.

 

I’m saying we cut on Monday and I’ll reassess and see that H5 maps still look like this at day 5. If so, weenies rejoice.

are you aware that you could get smoked this weekend? be honest

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