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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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39 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I own a gym, been in the fitness industry for 15 years.  I do about 70 one on one training sessions a week plus teach 10 group classes so I move a lot of weights daily.  Just from plates or dumbells I've broken a finger 3 times, seriously bruised 2 toes, worst injury was when I almost lost my "third leg" putting a 45lb plate back up on a waist high vertical plate rack.  Worst injury I've seen is someone DB benching and dropping 100s onto the ground but he had 90s under him and his finger was in between both dumbells, finger exploded and blood shot straight out onto the mirror in front of him. 

Sey-mour muscles!

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20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

idk...I've been loving this winter. Low heating fuel costs and not much to clean up.

Sub-plot to life...  

Last year I got a rudely awakening snail mail from N-grid indicating their intent to disconnect me from the grid, due to an arrears mount staggering to 2400$ 

Umm... how's that?  

My house is tiny 2 floor, 2-bedrooms, 1-bath, small kitchen and small living room area. That's it.  In fact, when you turn up the thermostat, it takes ... 10 minutes tops to raise the temperature from a 54F morning (in winter), to the mid 60s .. 70.   It's electric heat - why this is relevant.  

So yea, with electric heating...I'm going to pay more than just running the appliances.   Still, the footprint of this edifice is not that large. 

Here's what happened...  I get offered an astounding .11 kwh rate from some outfit in Buffalo - can't recall their "Enronian" name ( fuckers). I signed up ...because of course I'm also an asshole - it takes two to tango.   It was great through the autumn.  I was paying like a 150 a month.  Then, in December, they sent out a snail mail ( which c'mon! they know people don't check that often any more with an increasing reliance upon other notification closer to real-time ( this is particularly true if you are a asshole!) so they leveraged that).  In that snail mail, which I found ...6 months later, they had moved the kwh rate to staggering .36, during the coldest 3 climo months of the year.

So I was paying closer to 700 a month to heat and run the home, in totality, thinking that my auto payment of 150 was covering.  N-grid finally loses patience come June. They're perfectly willing to cut your power in a low risk summer month - I give then mercy credit there. 

I immediately converted back to N-grid for supplier.  Unfortunately... they sent out  mail in September, blaming something having to do with natural gas for why they were going to up their kwh to .28 per.   Oy!   I don't buy it, frankly.

I think these suppliers are in trouble .. not because of supply and demand. Lie. I think they are worried that the future will stem their means to hold society at ransom, because solar at site, and wind and solar at regional scales, et al, is starting to cut into their fossil fuel sourced power grid.  That, and... due to legislation already in the works, they won't be able to access FF in 30 years...They are trying to exit trillion the industry as a strategy. 

But I hate all conspiracy theories unless they are my own, so taken for how little this is worth.  Lol

 

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19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Icon is snowy for the 23rd. That thing usually spits out Dr No solutions too. Something to watch at least

Something has to give, right? 1 week run in February and probably again in early March, 15 to 25 inches will be Southbury's snow total for the season....

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24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

idk...I've been loving this winter. Low heating fuel costs and not much to clean up.

Unfortunately, the price of #2 is high enough that the mild wx merely limits the increased spending for heat.  January is running +9.1 thru yesterday and by the end of the weekend it will probably be back to double digits AN.  Mildest January here so far was +7.4 in 2006, so we're breaking new ground unless late month turns arctic.

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I own a gym, been in the fitness industry for 15 years.  I do about 70 one on one training sessions a week plus teach 10 group classes so I move a lot of weights daily.  Just from plates or dumbells I've broken a finger 3 times, seriously bruised 2 toes, worst injury was when I almost lost my "third leg" putting a 45lb plate back up on a waist high vertical plate rack.  Worst injury I've seen is someone DB benching and dropping 100s onto the ground but he had 90s under him and his finger was in between both dumbells, finger exploded and blood shot straight out onto the mirror in front of him. 

so what you are saying is that you lift things up and you put them down?

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS came in flatter with 1/23 as well...not snow for SNE, but it's back to a big hit for CNE/NNE.

This could not be any more quintessentially a needle threading scenario.   That ICON solution... regardless of whether the model's a piece of shit or not... is a nice illustration of what that means.  That goes 10 miles NW of that track and it's heavy rain a ORH.    10 miles SE, and it light snow there.  But riiiiiight perfectly the model runs this thing with exceptionally precise tolerance, along the necessary track to get things interesting between ORH and BED.  

No problem!  put all your money down on the ICON, huh

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This could not be any more quintessentially a needle threading scenario.   That ICON solution... regardless of whether the model's a piece of shit or not... is a nice illustration of what that means.  That goes 10 miles NW of that track and it's heavy rain a ORH.    10 miles SE, and it light snow there.  But riiiiiight perfectly the model runs this thing with exceptionally precise tolerance, along the necessary track to get things interesting between ORH and BED.  

No problem!  put all your money down on the ICON, huh

We had a similar needle-threader right before the onslaught in 2015....the system on 1/24/15 that got everything started was actually a really precarious setup with basically no high to the north and we just happened to get the trough in the perfect spot to ride the low just offshore and produce a modest band of 5-9" type snows across a chunk of the area. Same deal on this one...it's an airmass that really isn't that cold and there's no high holding any of this in (it slides quickly offshore).

One reason I'm pretty pessimistic for snows in SNE until post-1/25....these airmasses aren't that good and hardly any of the setups of a decent high....with the delicious irony of Thursday being the exception. Only problem with Thursday is the airmass is so putrid, that a decent high only merely gives snows down to about the MA/NH border or rt2-ish region.

 

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31 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Unfortunately, the price of #2 is high enough that the mild wx merely limits the increased spending for heat.  January is running +9.1 thru yesterday and by the end of the weekend it will probably be back to double digits AN.  Mildest January here so far was +7.4 in 2006, so we're breaking new ground unless late month turns arctic.

Yeah...I'm 100% pellets this year and I'm really enjoying the cozy stove heat.

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I think the main thing to watch with 1/23 is seeing how far E the SS piece escapes. the reason why the ICON works IMO is because the southern stream leaks eastward, suppressing heights out ahead of the main trough and leading to a coastal low

icon_z500_vort_us_fh72-120.thumb.gif.7f88b873b7f7cc88caf3b1b2278515ce.gif

the GFS has been trending in that direction with the SS vort, which is why we've seen east ticks since 00z

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh78_trend.thumb.gif.e17714120a2323f2665df91c5d994a7d.gif

this is certainly not a good setup for the coast, but I would keep an eye on this, since the system will be very dynamic. anywhere NW of the SLP has a shot of legitimately cooling due to strong FGEN, good 250mb venting, and lots of PVA

root for the SS energy to be a bit quicker to prevent a clean phase, if anything. luckily, it seems like things have been trending a bit more progressively as we've headed towards an event anyway, so there's that. I would definitely feel better if I lived NW of 95 into NH / C MA

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I own a gym, been in the fitness industry for 15 years.  I do about 70 one on one training sessions a week plus teach 10 group classes so I move a lot of weights daily.  Just from plates or dumbells I've broken a finger 3 times, seriously bruised 2 toes, worst injury was when I almost lost my "third leg" putting a 45lb plate back up on a waist high vertical plate rack.  Worst injury I've seen is someone DB benching and dropping 100s onto the ground but he had 90s under him and his finger was in between both dumbells, finger exploded and blood shot straight out onto the mirror in front of him. 

I've seen people do incredibly stupid things at the gym.  One of the highlights was a guy on back to back days...he was running so fast on the treadmill that he got thrown off of the treadmill into a wall. The gym billed him to repair the damage.......a woman "chalked" both of the impressions on the wall..

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