WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Truthfully, I am probably getting carried away with the potential upside. Who cares. Up side? Down side? We all know the caveats and risks. Post the good looks dammit. If it fails..fuk it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: What a dream for the forum. That's bonerific right there, but I think I'll sell for now lol. Maybe some tenting if it's there several days from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What kind of a site is this… Too much toggling between this site and PornHub 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, weathafella said: My take looking at the long range NHEM view is that we have about a 10-15 day window after 1/24-25 to get it done. If it fails somehow, it's over. I see February rapidly going to crap by mid month. You can see at the end of the ensembles the RNA starting to deepen and the Greenland blocking fading. Less so on EPS but GEFS have owned the Pacific this season. So we hopefully will have 2 weeks of fun. I think by mid February even NNE is struggling but hopefully not. Interesting opinion. We know you so it’s a respected thought there. We’ll see if you’ve been hitting the sauce though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You’re just a boat load of fun today Jerr. Hasn’t even materialized, and you’re talking about it breaking down already. And now it ain’t even happening?? …dam way to kill the vibe. Everybody knows the risks…but at least OP runs are showing stuff and so are ensembles now. I remember a lil while back, folks were like these OP runs gotta start showing stuff. Now they are. At least there’s that. I didn’t say the pattern isn’t happening. I did say big packs building on each isn’t happening. I also feel this upcoming pattern will not last beyond mid February which gives us about a 15 day window much like late January to mid February 2000. Still plenty of fun to be had in that period. JD, I don’t post like the old days but I can usually read the pattern ok. After the first 10-15 days after pattern change were going to need help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 59 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Is the gfs on board? GFS.... the new Dr. NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Trough on the 18z GFS still positive tilted @H5 at 0z Monday, Should be a couple tics further east at the surface then the 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I didn’t say the pattern isn’t happening. I did say big packs building on each isn’t happening. I also feel this upcoming pattern will not last beyond mid February which gives us about a 15 day window much like late January to mid February 2000. Still plenty of fun to be had in that period. JD, I don’t post like the old days but I can usually read the pattern ok. After the first 10-15 days after pattern change were going to need help. I was messing around lol…you could be completely right Jerry. I really don’t care anymore if it happens or not. My area in N. Maine is on its way. Let’s get the potentials here…I’m not looking that far ahead. I don’t think anybody expects the accumulated snowfall on those maps to be the pack depth either…at least I’m not. Just nice to see OPS showing something now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Trough on the 18z GFS still positive tilted @H5 at 0z Monday, Should be a couple tics further east at the surface then the 12z run. Up and in that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Up and in that run Still needs work but at least it didn't go to BGM.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Still needs work but at least it didn't go to BGM.........lol True , that would be a kick to the balls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Still needs work but at least it didn't go to BGM.........lol A move towards the EC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: A move towards the EC? Yes, For the 23rd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 So the 18z GFS has a burst of S/S- snow in the region Friday mid afternoon... oh, there's a thread for this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Love to see some consistency on these... can't wait for this to all fall part at some point, but been a bunch of big runs in a row for two-week pattern of threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Light Steady rain 41f bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I wouldn’t get optimistic on 1/23 at this point. Except maybe if I was up by powderfreak. That event could easily cut. But then again, we’re kind of “due” to get a break on one of those….but being “due” doesn’t increase your chances unfortunately, lol. 1/25-26 has a better shot imho and the period beyond that is much colder than previous so I like that timeframe too. Obviously we’re already tracking stuff between 1/19 and 1/25 so people don’t want to hear about the pattern beyond that, but I’m personally keeping expectations low in SNE over the next week. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn’t get optimistic on 1/23 at this point. Except maybe if I was up by powderfreak. That event could easily cut. But then again, we’re kind of “due” to get a break on one of those….but being “due” doesn’t increase your chances unfortunately, lol. 1/25-26 has a better shot imho and the period beyond that is much colder than previous so I like that timeframe too. Obviously we’re already tracking stuff between 1/19 and 1/25 so people don’t want to hear about the pattern beyond that, but I’m personally keeping expectations low in SNE over the next week. It’s tough to break the seasonal trend, I fully expect one of these runs to start raining to Canada for 1/23. There’s been a few times at this day 5-7 range a system is progged far enough SE to get big snow here (after showing rain in the Day 10 range) and in the end the big snow ends up north of St Lawrence River. Maybe this one is different (like you said, due for a favorable break for the region). Wouldn’t mind seeing a colder shift on that one for some wiggle room as it closes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 So far on these panning out were offa, But sometimes you get a squibber for a hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 25 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s tough to break the seasonal trend, I fully expect one of these runs to start raining to Canada for 1/23. There’s been a few times at this day 5-7 range a system is progged far enough SE to get big snow here (after showing rain in the Day 10 range) and in the end the big snow ends up north of St Lawrence River. Maybe this one is different (like you said, due for a favorable break for the region). Wouldn’t mind seeing a colder shift on that one for some wiggle room as it closes in. This 1/17-1/24 pattern is a little bit better than earlier this month so I’d be pretty optimistic where you are. The airmasses aren’t quite as putrid as early January (though they are far from ideal). It’s definitely like a step-down look to the pattern where SNE starts looking a lot more favorable the final week of the month while NNE looks very good a full week before. We’ll see. Like you, I’m almost still expecting the other shoe to drop…not because of anything scientific or empirical I can point to…but sometimes seasons start grating on your expectations. Kind of like the reverse of a year like 2015 where you keep expecting everything to break your way after the 3rd or 4th storm…but even in years like that it eventually shifted. Seemed like south of us (and south coast of SNE) really started catching the breaks after mid-February that year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I refuse to buy into anything outside of 48 hoiurs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This 1/17-1/24 pattern is a little bit better than earlier this month so I’d be pretty optimistic where you are. The airmasses aren’t quite as putrid as early January (though they are far from ideal). It’s definitely like a step-down look to the pattern where SNE starts looking a lot more favorable the final week of the month while NNE looks very good a full week before. We’ll see. Like you, I’m almost still expecting the other shoe to drop…not because of anything scientific or empirical I can point to…but sometimes seasons start grating on your expectations. Kind of like the reverse of a year like 2015 where you keep expecting everything to break your way after the 3rd or 4th storm…but even in years like that it eventually shifted. Seemed like south of us (and south coast of SNE) really started catching the breaks after mid-February that year. What are your thoughts on the modeling dropping a couple inches of snow from your area down to about 10-15 miles from the coast on Friday with the Norlun and ULL? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: Truthfully, I am probably getting carried away with the potential upside. I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What are your thoughts on the modeling dropping a couple inches of snow from your area down to about 10-15 miles from the coast on Friday with the Norlun and ULL? That’s a definite possibility. Lot of solid upper level energy hanging back so I think there’s something to it. These can be fickle though so I won’t really look closely at it until tomorrow or even Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I refuse to buy into anything outside of 48 hoiurs. SHOCKER! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: SHOCKER! Mike gets a little antsy , he used to drink 12 diet cokes a day and I think it left him with some restlessness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: SHOCKER! 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Mike gets a little antsy , he used to drink 12 diet cokes a day and I think it left him with some restlessness I suspect more than a few on the board would agree on the 48-hours this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I suspect more than a few on the board would agree on the 48-hours this season. I was meaning more your perennial optimism. This season…you’re like this every season. Such a positive soul you are Mike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 46 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I suspect more than a few on the board would agree on the 48-hours this season. Absolutely yes. It's fun to look farther forward, but I never expect it to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s a definite possibility. Lot of solid upper level energy hanging back so I think there’s something to it. These can be fickle though so I won’t really look closely at it until tomorrow or even Thursday. Right...you don't seriously consider snow from an inverted trough until the last moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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