Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

My take looking at the long range NHEM view is that we have about a 10-15 day window after 1/24-25 to get it done.  If it fails somehow, it's over.  I see February rapidly going to crap by mid month.  You can see at the end of the ensembles the RNA starting to deepen and the Greenland blocking fading.  Less so on EPS but GEFS have owned the Pacific this season.  So we hopefully will have 2 weeks of fun.  I think by mid February even NNE is struggling but hopefully not.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If you look really close in that white patch in VT, You can faintly see some fingertips protruding through it.......:)

63c6faa3f0381.png

Pretty damn impressive for CNE and NNE even on the non weenie weatherbell eps clowns.  I’ve never seen a mean that high for sunny a large area, except right before a monster storm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If you look really close in that white patch in VT, You can faintly see some fingertips protruding through it.......:)

63c6faa3f0381.png

Pretty damn impressive for CNE and NNE even on the non weenie weatherbell eps clowns.  I’ve never seen a mean that high for sunny a large area, except right before a monster storm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the location of the TPV on the EPS is pretty much perfect

the blocking shifts it into SE Canada, which is a great spot to provide confluence

split flow showing up with the STJ being tapped into here

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500-4993600.thumb.png.5799d1abae0d3d31233e55d537be255e.png

The great thing about the stretch, and it could all shit the bed, is that it’s a scenario where we’re just getting colder and colder and colder as we get stormier so that by the time we get to the end of the month, we have a huge snow pack in northern New England, and a building one in southern New England. But I don’t think that blocking it’s just gonna run away too fast. Maybe the mid Atlantic starts to get in on things and we just have to deal with fringes and clippers for a while up here. But I love stretches where each time it snows, it gets colder, and we can enjoy it, instead of to fast, warm up and melt. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The great thing about the stretch, and it could all shit the bed, is that it’s a scenario where we’re just getting colder and colder and colder as we get stormier so that by the time we get to the end of the month, we have a huge snow pack in northern New England, and a building one in southern New England. But I don’t think that blocking it’s just gonna run away too fast. Maybe the mid Atlantic starts to get in on things and we just have to deal with fringes and clippers for a while up here. But I love stretches where each time it snows, it gets colder, and we can enjoy it, instead of to fast, warm up and melt. 

I’d bet big bucks on this not happening.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’d bet big bucks on this not happening.   

You’re just a boat load of fun today Jerr. Hasn’t even materialized, and you’re talking about it breaking down already. And now it ain’t even happening?? …dam way to kill the vibe. :axe:
 

Everybody knows the risks…but at least OP runs are showing stuff and so are ensembles now.  I remember a lil while back, folks were like these OP runs gotta start showing stuff. Now they are. At least there’s that. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re just a boat load of fun today Jerr. Hasn’t even materialized, and you’re talking about it breaking down already. And now it ain’t even happening?? …dam way to kill the vibe. :axe:
 

Everybody knows the risks…but at least OP runs are showing stuff and so are ensembles now.  I remember a lil while back, folks were like these OP runs gotta start showing stuff. Now they are. At least there’s that. 

I was leading that band, and I stand by it. I am loving what I see with multiple discrete signals—even if they aren’t beautiful weenie evolutions each time. 

I am done with 10+ day pattern talk. It’s almost peak climo and the evolution in just a few days time looks real. It’s time get in the end zone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re just a boat load of fun today Jerr. Hasn’t even materialized, and you’re talking about it breaking down already. And now it ain’t even happening?? …dam way to kill the vibe. :axe:
 

Everybody knows the risks…but at least OP runs are showing stuff and so are ensembles now.  I remember a lil while back, folks were like these OP runs gotta start showing stuff. Now they are. At least there’s that. 

Just a few hours ago the CMC snow maps were subject to ridicule.  But now that the Euro shows it, too, we can't post enough snow maps.

I'm with Jerry.  It's a 9-day run.  Let's see how it looks again in 3 days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...