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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

963mb on the 26/27th.

 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That one would be a hyper bomb if the Euro is right ... I haven't seen the surface but I can be certain given that run succeeding in the mid and U/A/ synoptic evolution, it's running some sort of 970 mb low right by us.  

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That one would be a hyper bomb if the Euro is right ... I haven't seen the surface but I can be certain given that run succeeding in the mid and U/A/ synoptic evolution, it's running some sort of 970 mb low right by us.  

I guess it's more 1/26. Nice ridge in the west, and hints of buildilng blocking (maybe transient) in NAO region 

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well ... for all the pattern change doubters and disrespect ( not saying I blame you, relax haha), you can't get a GGEM/Euro/UKMET blend to actually happen, without a pattern change.  

GFS has a pattern change but it just seems to lock a storm track that's both farther NW, but toting along damping waves.

So anyway... we'll see but the pattern is still scheduled to change

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

And the one time something looked like it had blizzard potential you get crickets from george...........:lol:

That’s how ya know he’s young and inexperienced. But he folded the winter and packed it away. In fact, he’s already sold next winter too lol, and this one might be just be gettin started. He’s confused..ya hate to see it. 

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

And the one time something looked like it had blizzard potential you get crickets from george...........:lol:

He's currently slumped back chalking eyes waiting on the intervention paramedics to hit 'im with NARCAN, that's why - it's called ODing

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15 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

That would be a fine thing, but i don't buy it... not yet

I’m leaning towards an inland runner but maybe the 1/23 storm (which looks like it will run inland) can drag the boundary south. It’s a long shot due to the unfavorable western ridge axis, but hey at least it has a low. Should be good for NNE, for us in SNE with this setup we need a few things to break right.

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1/25-26 will be a good hit this run for SNE I think. That’s prob the first one that has a realistic chance of being good here. Beyond that looks more favorable but at least with 1/25, we have some better looking upper levels with the PV getting closer and trying to intrude into Quebec. 

The 0z Euro didn't even have a storm on the 23rd. Is the one on 12z the same weak system that precludes the inland runner on 0z?

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1 minute ago, RDRY said:

The 0z Euro didn't even have a storm on the 23rd. Is the one on 12z the same weak system that precludes the inland runner on 0z?

Yes. 12z partially phased northern and southern streams which allows 1/23 to go nuts. We’d need a perfect thread the needle to get hit here….CNE/NNE get it on this run…they have a little more wiggle room but there’s still a risk of a stronger phase which would make it more of a pure cutter. But regardless, it allows us to reset the baroclinic zone further south for the next system so there’s some utility with 1/23 even if the system itself isn’t very snowy. 

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