ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well....say 9" in early February with a 45" March....54" is not a rat. Its a continuation of my last several uninspiring seasons. Say we run into a another 6" of fluke in Febuary.....near normal- Yeah so basically 1956 ending…like I said. Agreed that would save it but even an awesome longwave pattern is unlikely to produce that result again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah so basically 1956 ending…like I said. Agreed that would save it but even an awesome longwave pattern is unlikely to produce that result again. I mentioned that analog to you back a few weeks ago....it was one of my top analogs and December evolved very similarly. January has been much different, admittedly. See, I don't think a 40" month is that big of a stretch. People like to toss around CC....one consequence of that that I think has been very apparent is the increasing tendency for the atmosphere to enter into really dichotomous "feast or famine" type of time intervals as it pertains to snowfall. You deal that PV a death blow....let that marinade for a month until the wave lengths begin shortening and it gets interesting really fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Its 2001-2002...until its not- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mentioned that analog to you back a few weeks ago....it was one of my top analogs and December evolved very similarly. January has been much different, admittedly. See, I don't think a 40" month is that big of a stretch. People like to toss around CC....one consequence of that that I think has been very apparent is the increasing tendency for the atmosphere to enter into really dichotomous "feast or famine" type of time intervals as it pertains to snowfall. You deal that PV a death blow....let that marinade for a month until the wave lengths begin shortening and it gets interesting really fast. the -PNA also becomes less and less of an annoyance once into Feb due to the shorter wavelengths, too definitely not sold that this will be a canonical Nina Feb. what about this winter has been canonical in the slightest? more like a Nino, honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Notice the reduction of “no changes” posts by qqomega. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the -PNA also becomes less and less of an annoyance once into Feb due to the shorter wavelengths, too definitely not sold that this will be a canonical Nina Feb. what about this winter has been canonical in the slightest? more like a Nino, honestly I mean, my forecast charts imply a big March...but don't get me wrong....I can see it going either way. I totally get how precarious the strat stuff is and this season could easily be another 2001-2002. I don't mean to impugn the efforts of those who dissent to the big March idea....totally possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Canadian looks like it has the best high pressure set up for Thur nite / Friday am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean, my forecast charts imply a big March...but don't get me wrong....I can see it going either way. I totally get how precarious the start stuff is and this season could easily be another 2001-2002. I don't mean to impugn the efforts of those who dissent to the big March idea....totally pssible. you as well as anyone would know what came after 2001-02 with a flip to a pretty legit Nino... coming off of multiple Ninas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean, my forecast charts imply a big March...but don't get me wrong....I can see it going either way. I totally get how precarious the strat stuff is and this season could easily be another 2001-2002. I don't mean to impugn the efforts of those who dissent to the big March idea....totally possible. Some guidance is trying to show some blocking by Greenland in Feb. Not sure if I buy it yet, but it's not some crazy idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you as well as anyone would know what came after 2001-02 with a flip to a pretty legit Nino... coming off of multiple Ninas You know where I stand on next year...no secret, there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 12z GFS has the next system as a big snow up here too. That’d be a nice 6-7 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Notice the reduction of “no changes” posts by qqomega. He used up his daily 5 on more waste replies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some guidance is trying to show some blocking by Greenland in Feb. Not sure if I buy it yet, but it's not some crazy idea. I was waaay too cocky about March back in 2018 and truth be told, I was just lucky that it actually worked out. It wasn't any stroke of genius. The rationale and work was valid, but I exuded far more confidence than was warranted. I learned not to do that really fast during the next two seasons, after falling flat on my face. All I will say here is that there is a path to redemption for this season, increasing March sun angle butt-hurt not withstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I thought we fixed this nonsense with the GFS and not saturating the lower levels? Sell the temps. Again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 We got two weeks left of January, the last week looks to change, and we still don’t know how February(which is 15 days away still) will shake out. Lots of uncertainty to go around for all. Lots of time left to Rat, or make up some ground. At some point you’d think the complete bad juju would have to change somewhat too…law of averages eventually turns things from where we are now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought we fixed this nonsense with the GFS and not saturating the lower levels? Sell the temps. Again. Too warm in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Gonna be shoveling a lot of GGEM snow again this run…not just from the 1/19-20 event but from 1/23-24 too. Let’s see how large we can get the delta between the Euro and GGEM on total run snowfall. I feel like powderfreak posting ARW maps in Feb 2015…. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonna be shoveling a lot of GGEM snow again this run…not just from the 1/19-20 event but from 1/23-24 too. Let’s see how large we can get the delta between the Euro and GGEM on total run snowfall. I feel like powderfreak posting ARW maps in Feb 2015…. I just saw it and was like WTF. LOL. What a weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Too warm in the low levels. Yeah definitely, but as a result that it is not wetbulbing the temp towards the dew while it's precipitating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah definitely, but as a result that it is not wetbulbing the temp towards the dew while it's precipitating. Yea, assuming the model was right, then there would be more snowfall further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: I just saw it and was like WTF. LOL. What a weenie run. 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like it takes the precipitation right into Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 12z GFS has the next system as a big snow up here too. That’d be a nice 6-7 days. this is the total for both storms? suggests the second one is mountains only in nh and vt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, assuming the model was right, then there would be more snowfall further south. It's aggravating to me lol. I thought that was fixed until @wx2fishpointed it out to me. It did that a few years ago, but I thought that bias was fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's aggravating to me lol. I thought that was fixed until @wx2fishpointed it out to me. It did that a few years ago, but I thought that bias was fixed. Its just the NAM that's really warm, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonna be shoveling a lot of GGEM snow again this run…not just from the 1/19-20 event but from 1/23-24 too. Let’s see how large we can get the delta between the Euro and GGEM on total run snowfall. I feel like powderfreak posting ARW maps in Feb 2015…. and don't forget about 1/26! might be the best model run of the winter so far haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonna be shoveling a lot of GGEM snow again this run…not just from the 1/19-20 event but from 1/23-24 too. Let’s see how large we can get the delta between the Euro and GGEM on total run snowfall. I feel like powderfreak posting ARW maps in Feb 2015…. 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just saw it and was like WTF. LOL. What a weenie run. 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 2 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: and don't forget about 1/26! might be the best model run of the winter so far haha But it nailed the pre XMAS eve disaster....of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just saw it and was like WTF. LOL. What a weenie run. That one was run out of my basement….GGEM has to be the best model for phantom weenie snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That one was run out of my basement….GGEM has to be the best model for phantom weenie snow I’ve loved the GGEM since day 1, lol. Always shoveling fantasy snow. It always gives hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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