NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I expect nothing but rain on the coast for Thu/Fri, but hope TB13 scores some powder days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There may be some specific latitude consideration going on ... it's a finite scenario in that regards. Here along Rt 2... I would like to see more +PP correct into the front side of this. I don't see where the BL cold is coming from that is sufficient to offset a 850 mb thrust to +2C, in a season not providing a lot of faith that BLs can cool off and hold. But...just over the border of VT/NH ...like almost collocated, it 0C there... But, they may also have a pesky warm layer in the bottom, too - not sure.. I think the best bet is modest height falls Friday morning with the collapsing column stuff. Man, what a tedious forecast this is - The NAM clearly feeling the cold press in the primary --more than other guidance--but the primary holds on much longer (longitude) than other reliable guidance. Net-Net it's a warmer depiction because SNE skunked at 850. But being that the NAM is alone in this aspect, we sell for now... This is one of those where you have to smell the taint to get the highest totals... Cold tucks are significantly under-performing broadly this season, and I'm selling any of them advertised in the east until further notice. But we have seen them show up with stubbornness in the far interior, so I believe this is can be one of those situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 48 minutes ago, George001 said: 02-03 was really good, 86-87 and 02-03 were around average. How did you get average in 02-03 when BOS was 75% above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There may be some specific latitude consideration going on ... it's a finite scenario in that regards. Here along Rt 2... I would like to see more +PP correct into the front side of this. I don't see where the BL cold is coming from that is sufficient to offset a 850 mb thrust to +2C, in a season not providing a lot of faith that BLs can cool off and hold. But...looking at some higher resolution runs of the NAM, just over the border of VT/NH ...like almost collocated, it 0C there... But, they may also have a pesky warm layer in the bottom, too - not sure.. I think the best bet is modest height falls Friday morning with the collapsing column stuff. Man, what a tedious forecast this is - As we get closer in , I think for accumulation we may need some BL help and latitude . Not a “up and in” look necessarily but I think under 300-350’ in S NH may have an issue from MHT south and the issue in elevated MA area near route 2 and north might be more the mid layers at least regarding the Thursday nite part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: As we get closer in , I think for accumulation we may need some BL help and latitude . Not a “up and in” look necessarily but I think under 300-350’ in S NH may have an issue from MHT south and the issue in elevated MA area near route 2 and north might be more the mid layers at least regarding the Thursday nite part It's not a bad interpretation, no. It's a 'smells like snow' rain along rt 2, with probably some stars on the windshield. Taking a closer look at the NAM ( for example...because it is one of the warmer 850 mb solutions as jbenedet points out..), the +2C I said was actually too warm. It's really closer to +1 with smaller meso holes punched through to 0C down as far as the Quabbin so... being at night, on January 19th, one could visualize that flopping over to wet cotton balls along this latitude. No bueno along the Pike... But yeah...as far as "accumulating" - heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Yep....go with the NAM. Sell much accumulation even for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 NAM and EURO are lock-in-step in taking the decaying H85 low through s NH....not a good way to run a snow event for SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: NAM and EURO are lock-in-step in taking the decaying H85 low through s NH....not a good way to run a snow event for SNE. Yea NAM is a heater but I would say the Euro is close to being OK for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: As we get closer in , I think for accumulation we may need some BL help and latitude . Not a “up and in” look necessarily but I think under 300-350’ in S NH may have an issue from MHT south and the issue in elevated MA area near route 2 and north might be more the mid layers at least regarding the Thursday nite part Agree but smells like Dendy on north type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea NAM is a heater but I would say the Euro is close to being OK for you EURO is similar to 06z NAM, which was fine....but my money is on the 12z NAM warmer sceanrio. Crap antecedent.....850 low dropping se from NYS through SNH. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 We’ll see how the storm threats start looking post-1/25….we’ve def seen a bit of a sag south in the snow gradient compared to earlier this month. But for SNE to do well with western troughing, we want to see that PV get down into Hudson Bay or Quebec. That happens on pretty much all ensemble guidance around the 25th so we may actually have some good antecedent airmasses after that time. 1/19-20 and 1/23-24 are uphill battles due to the lack of good antecedent airmasses and storms coming out of the OH valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Agree but smells like Dendy on north type of storm. Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 you guys are going to get rocked if this is correct... this is even good down to NYC. the TPV is in a good spot here, there's cross polar flow, and even some blocking I know that pessimism is rampant, but you can make up a ton of ground in this type of active setup 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: you guys are going to get rocked if this is correct... this is even good down to NYC I know that pessimism is rampant, but you can make up a ton of ground in this type of active setup Tough to stay optimistic....we've been internet dating for 2 months and are left with a closet full of day 11 blow up dolls. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough to stay optimistic....we've been internet dating for 2 months and are left with a closet full of day 11 blow up dolls. I know, it's been frustrating, but all we have is what's in front of us. the change occurs around Day 8, too, so this isn't complete fantasy at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: I know, it's been frustrating, but all we have is what's in front of us. the change occurs around Day 8, too, so this isn't complete fantasy at this point No, I'm with you....its no one's error or fault. Just saying. I am still on the "happy ending" train, but totally get the pessimism. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 That day 10 euro op is also an example of something maybe that can go right. Not saying it will happen..but it's one of those overrunning looks that I was hoping to see for two months now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 In the meantime... 42 F in full sun after 48 hours of 30s in grunge is rather pleasant. Heh, with +2C at 850 ... full sun? In a month, we'd be 60F. I've seen it 62 F under 0C at 850 mb over a snow pack because of light wind warm sun angle super-adiabats. Soon as the sun kisses the tree line temp drops like a disgraced prom queen, sure ... But, days like this - this winter has been on life support all along, frankly, so you wonder if a rather over-performing nape season is in store. The numerical version of the teleconnectors are quite mild looking beyond next week... Yet, the depictions of all three ens cluster/means looks impressively wintry... These indicator methods are in conflict. Hmm... I'll tell you ( frankly...) the way this winter has gone preps one's perception to lean away from one of those portraits. Guess which one... heh. It's easy to imagine out there... this pattern change proven real but not that long, and not as amplified... starts folding toward an early spring. I'll be brutally honest, I would personally be quite happy with that. I'm not trying to rub this winter's shit show in or be "trollic" ...Just being objective about how the current and projected state of affairs are perceived, and based upon verification trends .. applied to guidance - and some measure of being bludgeoned over the head with it that CC modulation really gets harder to deny ... - from all these sources? Part of the 'quite happy' is perhaps more like acceptance setting one free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yep....go with the NAM. Sell much accumulation even for my area. Riding the line that run. So borderline from the sfc up past 850. Gonna want a saturated DGZ with lift given that look. I'm in the "proceed with caution" crowd for us south of MHT. I'm not totally selling the first round, but there's not a ton of wiggle room. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough to stay optimistic....we've been internet dating for 2 months and are left with a closet full of day 11 blow up dolls. Rat Watch will be upgraded to Rat Warning if we’re getting screwed through first week of Feb. The two weeks post-1/25 are do or die time…we have the PV in a good spot for once this winter with an active gradient look…normally, we’d be honking if we were even near average for snowfall so far, but Murphy’s Law this winter is keeping the red flags up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Denying CC is one thing, but attributing it to every subpar season is another entirely. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Rat Watch will be upgraded to Rat Warning if we’re getting screwed through first week of Feb. The two weeks post-1/25 are do or die time…we have the PV in a good spot for once this winter with an active gradient look…normally, we’d be honking if we were even near average for snowfall so far, but Murphy’s Law this winter is keeping the red flags up. I agree with the strat caveat applied.....if we have a February 2018 redux ongoing at the highest levels, then I still won't commit to a rat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Oops, the overrunning look from 00z yesterday. Perfect confluence to our north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree with the strat caveat applied.....if we have a February 2018 redux ongoing at the highest levels, then I still won't commit to a rat. I mean, if I’m still sitting in single digit snowfall by mid February, even a great March won’t save it from ratter…maybe late Feb/March 1956 here would save it, but that’s a pretty big bar to clear, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I mean, if I’m still sitting in single digit snowfall by mid February, even a great March won’t save it from ratter…maybe late Feb/March 1956 here would save it, but that’s a pretty big bar to clear, lol. Well....say 9" in early February with a 45" March....54" is not a rat. Its a continuation of my last several uninspiring seasons. Say we run into a another 6" of fluke in Febuary.....near normal- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well....say 9" in early February with a 45" March....54" is not a rat. Its a continuation of my last several uninspiring seasons. Say we run into a another 6" of fluke in Febuary.....near normal- Ray on board for a historic March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you guys are going to get rocked if this is correct... this is even good down to NYC. the TPV is in a good spot here, there's cross polar flow, and even some blocking I know that pessimism is rampant, but you can make up a ton of ground in this type of active setup Ridge bridge developing, and that is a good example of how west coast troffing is not a death knell, depending on how it is set up and what is happening at high lats and in the Atlantic. Let it be so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Rat Watch will be upgraded to Rat Warning if we’re getting screwed through first week of Feb. The two weeks post-1/25 are do or die time…we have the PV in a good spot for once this winter with an active gradient look…normally, we’d be honking if we were even near average for snowfall so far, but Murphy’s Law this winter is keeping the red flags up. I personally didn't want it to snow until then anyway. At least so I will pretend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray on board for a historic March. I think its totally possible....other than that, this is 2001-2002-lite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Rat Watch will be upgraded to Rat Warning if we’re getting screwed through first week of Feb. The two weeks post-1/25 are do or die time…we have the PV in a good spot for once this winter with an active gradient look…normally, we’d be honking if we were even near average for snowfall so far, but Murphy’s Law this winter is keeping the red flags up. Maybe we’ll be able to bump these posts on 4/15 after a historic stretch with deep and frequent snows post 1/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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