dryslot Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 You know your in trouble when the GGEM is being used to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe not from the whole ordeal, combined. Either way, more suck. Pretty much. I said a few days ago that this is more of the same for most in SNE and parts of CNE. instead of Quebec the gradient might be over NNE now. pretty much looks like you can’t punt the rest of the month at least down here. Unless a sloppy inch of snow moves the needle for you, which for me it does not at this point. Maybe it would be exciting in October, not late Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 51 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: You can see it in the ensembles, might be a good 1-2 week period for us. End of January, beginning of February. But it definitely looks like we may need some luck mixed in there. Otherwise wise the pattern change is nothing more than another way to fork us. At least in our region. Hope I'm wrong... Too far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Note on this past storm: Without a real source of polar/arctic cold that isn't rotting, and during a time of above average SSTS - I"m tossing all snow maps to Jupiter, for here. Plenty of flags were raised by mets, and I mostly agreed with them but not to the extent that it panned out. 1.8" total but max depth maybe got over an inch due to the constant melting. I thereby am not getting too excited until I see arctic air in place or nearby. Just give me a storm that starts out in the teens, and maybe maxes out to 30° with a solid H to the north of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Note on this past storm: Without a real source of polar/arctic cold that isn't rotting, and during a time of above average SSTS - I"m tossing all snow maps to Jupiter, for here. Plent of flags were raised by mets, and I mostly agreed with them but not to the extent that it panned out. 1.8" total but max depth maybe got over an inch due to the constant melting. I thereby am not getting too excited until I see arctic air in place or nearby. Just give me a storm that starts out in the teens, and maybe maxes out to 30° with a solid H to the north of us. I thought you would do better. I did see near 4" in E Falmouth...but maybe your proximity to the water hurt a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought you would do better. I did see near 4" in E Falmouth...but maybe your proximity to the water hurt a bit. That is true - I wanted to emphasize the here as me being within 2 miles of the ocean. interior Upper Cape did a bit better like you said. I think the SST's did have a big part of it - so hopefully by February that issue is somewhat neutralized. Also, I shouldn't complain too much because it did have a nice wintry appeal for over 30 hours..and just enough to enjoy some outdoor time. But deep down, I want a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought you would do better. I did see near 4" in E Falmouth...but maybe your proximity to the water hurt a bit. I didn't do a blog for that one, but my Facebook thoughts were a general 2-4" out to 495 and 1-3" points west, which worked out pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Wow.....EPS is pretty snowy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 47 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Shades firmly closed in SNE until further notice I agree, for my area I decided to close the shades until the winter of 2024-2025 (at least for big winter potential). Sometimes we see a dominant storm track lock in and when that happens, it’s tough to break. In 2015 that benefited us, this year, the storm track is west of us (reminds me of 2018-2019). The western ridge axis is just way too far west this year, it’s an up and in winter. Then next winter we have an El Niño coming off a 3 year Nina, which often end up strong. I don’t think my area will see even 30 inches of snow next winter, strong ninos favor NYC south and don’t have a very high SNE ceiling. This winter I’m expecting to finish around 30 inches (as bad as things have been, it’s not a 2011-2012 or 2019-2020 level bad pattern). The polar vortex is expected to weaken the end of Jan, so im thinking maybe mid Feb is when things flip to a more favorable look for us. Probably too late to even get to climo totals never mind surpassing them, but could be enough to prevent a ratter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, George001 said: I agree, for my area I decided to close the shades until the winter of 2024-2025. Sometimes we see a dominant storm track lock in and when that happens, it’s tough to break. In 2015 that benefited us, this year, the storm track is west of us (reminds me of 2018-2019). The western ridge axis is just way too far west this year, it’s an up and in winter. Then next winter we have an El Niño coming off a 3 year Nina, which often end up strong. I don’t think my area will see even 30 inches of snow next winter, strong ninos favor NYC south and don’t have a very high SNE ceiling. This winter I’m expecting to finish around 30 inches (as bad as things have been, it’s not a 2011-2012 or 2019-2020 level bad pattern). The polar vortex is expected to weaken the end of Jan, so im thinking maybe mid Feb is when things flip to a more favorable look for us. Probably too late to even get to climo totals never mind surpassing them, but could be enough to prevent a ratter. Now that's what I call, packing it in...mailing it in, etc. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, George001 said: I agree, for my area I decided to close the shades until the winter of 2024-2025 (at least for big winter potential). Sometimes we see a dominant storm track lock in and when that happens, it’s tough to break. In 2015 that benefited us, this year, the storm track is west of us (reminds me of 2018-2019). The western ridge axis is just way too far west this year, it’s an up and in winter. Then next winter we have an El Niño coming off a 3 year Nina, which often end up strong. I don’t think my area will see even 30 inches of snow next winter, strong ninos favor NYC south and don’t have a very high SNE ceiling. This winter I’m expecting to finish around 30 inches (as bad as things have been, it’s not a 2011-2012 or 2019-2020 level bad pattern). The polar vortex is expected to weaken the end of Jan, so im thinking maybe mid Feb is when things flip to a more favorable look for us. Probably too late to even get to climo totals never mind surpassing them, but could be enough to prevent a ratter. What did you get in 86-87, 02-03 and 57-58? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gotcha, bud. Fact of the matter is that many feel the same way, but just aren't as transparent. I really don’t think this is the case on here, thou this is more of a chit chat comment . Not more than that It’s like unless you live on a elevated upslope enhanced area odds are most storms someone in SNE or CNE is going to outdo you/ me most of the time in almost every system outside of E slope Berks / woodford area Now , If it’s a storm the whole region can score it’s a good vibe , however if it’s a relatively narrower area of snow and ...NNE snow =SNE rain ..I want the shield to sink south even if that means NNE is skirted . Thou in the end I’ll take solace knowing ski conditions will be better when I go even if it doesn’t happen . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I really don’t think this is the case on here It’s like unless you live on a elevated upslope enhanced area odds are most storms someone in SNE going to outdo folks most of the time in almost every spot outside of E slope Berks . Now , If it’s a storm the whole region can score it’s a good vibe , however if it’s a relatively narrower area of snow and ...NNE snow =SNE rain ..I want the shield to sink south even if that means NNE is skirted . Thou in the end I’ll take solace knowing ski conditions will be better when I go even if it doesn’t happen . That is true in the absolute sense of a literal jackpot, but its rare for one spot that usually does well to continue to get boned. I don't expect that overall sentiment to resonate with you because you are a meteorological mercenary that travels at the drop of a hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Now that's what I call, packing it in...mailing it in, etc. Thank goodness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What did you get in 86-87, 02-03 and 57-58? 02-03 was really good, 86-87 and 02-03 were around average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, George001 said: 02-03 was really good, 86-87 and 02-03 were around average. So, I'm not sure where you get 30" for next year, but its moot, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still punting Thursday for us in the pike region. CON to PWM is the zone to be. Southern greens you think Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't expect that overall sentiment to resonate with you because you are a meteorological mercenary that travels at the drop of a hat. This is true , the option of gassing up the Corsica keeps me sane from the depression of winter rains for me , i just can’t have this big winter hobby and stomach the ups and downs of my climo *AND* be very satisfied . So if there is an option to be satisfied and happy I gotta try 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What about us in here... haha. I’m gonna tell you why: because when Snowcrazed saw his local METS on TV say a pattern change, he didn’t have to parse through/listen to folks say the same stuff morning after morning, things like kick the can, close the shades, can’t wait for the lawn thread, can’t wait for the car wash thread, hope winter 23-24 is better, no change coming, nothing is changing, trough out west is going nowhere, it’s not a good look for the east, fire up the golf thread….did I miss any? Sometines less is more. And for him this morning it was. He Got some good info, and none of anything else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 We have a well-timed weak cold front with respect to Thurs/Friday threat. I really struggle to see these COLD dews bottled up in Southern Ontario. Yes, even this year. The relative position of the core of the cold over top of the primary should also aid in inhibiting latitude gain. This looks like a classic CAD wedge signal down the western side of the Apps into Northern Virginia. I say shave 5-10 off these dews at this hr. from Albany, VT, west MA down to Western Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: So, I'm not sure where you get 30" for next year, but its moot, at this point. I think it’s going to be a strong El Niño, not a moderate one next winter so my analogs are less favorable. Hopefully I’m as accurate as my forecasts this winter have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow.....EPS is pretty snowy. sometimes swfe ramp up i the guidance, but then fall back to swfe climo. 4-8 across my area is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, George001 said: I think it’s going to be a strong El Niño, not a moderate one next winter so my analogs are less favorable. Hopefully I’m as accurate as my forecasts this winter have been. You are lumping in all strong el nino events, which is unwise. Not much difference between 1.5 ONI and 1.7. All of those el nino events were between 1.2 and 1.8ONI. This isn't going to be a 2015 or 1997 intensity el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 NAM looks warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 12z NAM will definitely be a bump north with the mid levels, esp @850. Still fairly cool at the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 For Thurs/Fri, The EPS has been trending positively for a more wintry solution in the marginal zones. Weaker primary, less latitude gain, earlier secondary. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’m gonna tell you why: because when Snowcrazed saw his local METS on TV say a pattern change, he didn’t have to parse through/listen to folks say the same stuff morning after morning, things like kick the can, close the shades, can’t wait for the lawn thread, can’t wait for the car wash thread, hope winter 23-24 is better, no change coming, nothing is changing, trough out west is going nowhere, it’s not a good look for the east, fire up the golf thread….did I miss any? Sometines less is more. And for him this morning it was. He Got some good info, and none of anything else. Suppose this is all the reason for "needing to hear it elsewhere" The real problem with why-for the repetitive nature is because the users ( in general...no you or any particular member, per se - ) need faster entertainment out a focus that takes time to occur. In this case ... pattern change applied to the 20th through the end of the month, has been so basically 3 straight weeks ( more like 2, okay -). That is/was a constant. The ambition to see it happen, is not. In essence, some of the blame for that is on the user themselves ... perhaps in losing sight of having to wait a couple of weeks for an outlook to manifest in reality. They're some interpretation of can kicking here, that is out of line. The pattern changing/timing therein ...has not changed for this particular evolution, since it was ferreted out some 10 days ago or whenever that was... People need other hobbies, man. Tune in from time to time, then when/if the day arrives for the bigger entertainment/d-drip stuff, then engage more fully. But this reliance on this media for "substance" and fulfillment is ... only half comedic, frankly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 34 minutes ago, George001 said: 02-03 was really good, 86-87 and 02-03 were around average. post of the year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, jbenedet said: For Thurs/Fri, The EPS has been trending positively for a more wintry solution in the marginal zones. Weaker primary, less latitude gain, earlier secondary. There may be some specific latitude consideration going on ... it's a finite scenario in that regards. Here along Rt 2... I would like to see more +PP correct into the front side of this. I don't see where the BL cold is coming from that is sufficient to offset a 850 mb thrust to +2C, in a season not providing a lot of faith that BLs can cool off and hold. But...looking at some higher resolution runs of the NAM, just over the border of VT/NH ...like almost collocated, it 0C there... But, they may also have a pesky warm layer in the bottom, too - not sure.. I think the best bet is modest height falls Friday morning with the collapsing column stuff. Man, what a tedious forecast this is - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What did you get in 86-87, 02-03 and 57-58? ...and 1888? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now