January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

There's a sneaky sort of weenieism showing up in the models, especially the GFS.  Short wave lengths FTW?

Yeah it’s a wonky flow courtesy of the Pacific. Sometimes those you can take advantage of lousy patterns of the airmass and s/w are timed right. 

[CoastalWx]

EPS looks a bit better today.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks a bit better today.

Really a lot better post d10.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks a bit better today.

 

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Really a lot better post d10.

It was off of its rocker staying like trash well into January. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

It was off of its rocker staying like trash well into January. 

GEFS schooling it again…?  Happening a lot lately. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

GEFS schooling it again…?  Happening a lot lately. 

I mean, we'll see....its one day's trend, but that makes more sense to me.

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, we'll see....its one day's trend, but that makes more sense to me.

Well that’s more my point anyway lol. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

If it isn’t going to snow, more days like today please 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If it isn’t going to snow, more days like today please 

Agreed. Gorgeous out. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks a bit better today.

 

48 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

GEFS schooling it again…?  Happening a lot lately. 

 

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, we'll see....its one day's trend, but that makes more sense to me.

Low confidence forecasts. I mentioned this yesterday but the long range guidance is not confident on the look past the first week of Jan. This isn’t high confidence like we saw with the monster December NAO block and -EPO block. Ensembles were very confident with not a ton of spread. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

Low confidence forecasts. I mentioned this yesterday but the long range guidance is not confident on the look past the first week of Jan. This isn’t high confidence like we saw with the monster December NAO block and -EPO block. Ensembles were very confident with not a ton of spread. 

Hmmm, well that can be good and bad I guess lol.  Makes for some suspense as we move forward I’d assume.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah just noting a step in the right direction. Definitely low confidence. Would like to see this continue for 3 days or so. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I didn't think the EPS looked that great anyway when looping the polar stereographic projection over at Pivotal/500 mb anomaly. 

It looks like a -PNA transmitting a Chinook stretch across the continent with just a vague ridge mound ... more associated to mountain torque.  At least ending on day 10.   If that's better than the previous runs, wow.  I guess they were really bad then lol

There may be events in that mess that are just not powerful enough to footprint the mean  - kinda what Jan 5-9th would be.  But hey, someone was mentioning how there doesn't seem to be any 4-8" events any more.  Might have to do some actual forecasting and not just rely upon the loud signaled bombs that show up two weeks ahead. 

[MJO812]

Here Comes the gfs for the 7th

[tavwtby]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Here Comes the gfs for the 7th

I've had an eye on that time for a few days now, siggy been showing up for at least something to track, looks like congrats fish atm tho...

[Heisy]

GFS kind of shows same TPV phase situation we were dealing with during the last cutter. 18z gfs gets the energy in SE Canada out ahead of shortwave which allows some cold air to filter vs 12z which phases them. If there was a little more separation here with more of TPV press we could get hit here near coast. Need some work though. GFS colder bias could be at work here too and I think better opportunities probably better beyond this anyway

TLDR: as long as we get some TPV press in SE Canada we’ll have some opportunities with an active PAC

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[Typhoon Tip]

18 hours of moderate snow along rt 2

That much sleet to the pike/mixing in.. with ice south.  

This is the most promising run re the 5th-7th yet.   Funny...this is the event I first mentioned 5 days ago but we've been tossing back and forth between in and something closer to the 8th - and likely will do that some more.  

It's possible the whole period is just magnified too -

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

18 hours of moderate snow along rt 2

That much sleet to the pike/mixing in.. with ice south.  

This is the most promising run re the 5th-7th yet.   Funny...this is the event I first mentioned 5 days ago but we've been tossing back and forth between in and something closer to the 8th - and likely will do that some more.  

It's possible the whole period is just magnified too -

The GFS and Icon vs the world for SNE. What could possibly go wrong 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like a lot of sleet/snow mix here and cold at the low levels. I’ll take it.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a lot of sleet/snow mix here and cold at the low levels. I’ll take it.

Absolutely. 

[CoastalWx]

Even the euro hints at something so we’ll see. Love seeing the man highs press in. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The GFS and Icon vs the world for SNE. What could possibly go wrong 

Beggars can’t be choosers now…you wanted something to look forward to/track, and here ya go, and it’s only a week out.  

[Damage In Tolland]

This is a teaching moment . You can’t feel like you’re forecasting in December when you’re calling for 50’s. Because it’s not normal . In Morch it is . High temps in Dec avg colder . So when you lose the month.. you really do lose 

. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Even the euro hints at something so we’ll see. Love seeing the man highs press in. 

I shoulda started a thread last Monday ...That woulda blown some minds. 

- earned me the ESPN hot dog eating classic worth of buns, but it woulda been cool 

[tavwtby]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I shoulda started a thread last Monday ...That woulda blown some minds. 

- earned me the ESPN hot dog eating classic worth of buns, but it woulda been cool 

yeah let's not jinx and start a thread outside 5 days, although it seems when you start one, odds are better...

[WinterWolf]

Just now, tavwtby said:

yeah let's not jinx and start a thread outside 5 days, although it seems when you start one, odds are better...

Let’s just wait a few days…just to be safe huh. 

[Typhoon Tip]

that's only 170+ hours out...

Ha, 'only'   - imagine saying that in 1995.     But that's a hybrid between a NJ model low with a Miller A... Mostly the former though. The boundary kinks over the SE and and then it goes through the Norwegian sequencing along a perfect track to scalp Kevin while the rest of due really well with a ton of frontogenic sig.  ...I can tell all that without looking.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Let’s just wait a few days…just to be safe huh. 

At this point ...I'd be willing to wait until it's yesterday. 

"Signal for a moderate to major flat wave snow event becoming much more coherent for two days ago..." 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a teaching moment . You can’t feel like you’re forecasting in December when you’re calling for 50’s. Because it’s not normal . In Morch it is . High temps in Dec avg colder . So when you lose the month.. you really do lose 

. 

 

In the higher elevations the max temp is colder early to almost mid March compared to early to mid December. You continue to make stuff up. 

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I shoulda started a thread last Monday ...That woulda blown some minds. 

- earned me the ESPN hot dog eating classic worth of buns, but it woulda been cool 

Congratulations on your restraint.  If it's still there on Tuesday's 00z models you an start a thread then.