January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[WxWatcher007]

28 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Forget pack this year.

Yup. All about numbers on the board. 

20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No changes, to our thoughts. It’s coming. The upswing is near…

That's why I feel the football analogy is so good (at least in my mind) if we can get a late week score, even if it isn't a TD, it inspires confidence in at least a modest comeback. Let's string together a couple good drives...

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I guess that was my takeaway, that you need cold air originally to dam it in.  CAD usually requires cold to begin with.

There are really two ways I like to think of it, active or passive (in-situ) CAD.

Active you either can get a backdoor of sorts to drive the cold south along the terrain, or the pressure gradient is oriented just so as to produce that barrier jet that holds the cold in place.

In-situ CAD you wet bulb down below freezing thanks to a dry air mass and the cold just takes a long time to scour out, but eventually does because there is no barrier jet. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yup. All about numbers on the board. 

That's why I feel the football analogy is so good (at least in my mind) if we can get a late week score, even if it isn't a TD, it inspires confidence in at least a modest comeback. Let's string together a couple good drives...

The only difference with weather is, you can still comeback by whining. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There are really two ways I like to think of it, active or passive (in-situ) CAD.

Active you either can get a backdoor of sorts to drive the cold south along the terrain, or the pressure gradient is oriented just so as to produce that barrier jet that holds the cold in place.

In-situ CAD you wet bulb down below freezing thanks to a dry air mass and the cold just takes a long time to scour out, but eventually does because there is no barrier jet. 

And you almost always need active for a major icing event (say, greater than 3/8th radial)…though you can maybe get close if the low level antecedent airmass is extremely good, but that’s kind of hard to do without having a lot of sleet and snow contamination eating up QPF on the front end…which then by default means less QPF as ZR. 
 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

And you almost always need active for a major icing event (say, greater than 3/8th radial)…though you can maybe get close if the low level antecedent airmass is extremely good, but that’s kind of hard to do without having a lot of sleet and snow contamination eating up QPF on the front end…which then by default means less QPF as ZR. 
 

The only one that really jumps out at me with 0.5" radial on just in-situ cold air was the late 90s that started below zero but ended up 50s and thunder later in the afternoon.

[mahk_webstah]

Looking at the new WPC stuff, snow probs moderate to just south of the NH border, and high near to Laconia on north.  But a "modest" event (3-6 here perhaps).  I didn't realize the 23rd was a Miller A, but it comes all the way up the coast, perhaps just inside the BM.  But the low is modest as well in this depiction, only 1000mb just ne of the BM at 12Z 23rd.  Doesn't seem like anything exciting, but is there another behind this?

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks a touch colder Thu/early Fri on the Euro. Doesn’t do much here but Pike region should like. Not sure about backlash snow yet.

backlash? ain't happenin' James.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Looking at the new WPC stuff, snow probs moderate to just south of the NH border, and high near to Laconia on north.  But a "modest" event (3-6 here perhaps).  I didn't realize the 23rd was a Miller A, but it comes all the way up the coast, perhaps just inside the BM.  But the low is modest as well in this depiction, only 1000mb just ne of the BM at 12Z 23rd.  Doesn't seem like anything exciting, but is there another behind this?

In a gradient pattern nothing is specially exciting but there are lots of opportunities depending on which side of the gradient you are.  We haven’t lacked action the past 4-6 weeks.

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Looking at the new WPC stuff, snow probs moderate to just south of the NH border, and high near to Laconia on north.  But a "modest" event (3-6 here perhaps).  I didn't realize the 23rd was a Miller A, but it comes all the way up the coast, perhaps just inside the BM.  But the low is modest as well in this depiction, only 1000mb just ne of the BM at 12Z 23rd.  Doesn't seem like anything exciting, but is there another behind this?

With what we've been given so far this season... This looks exciting! 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

In a gradient pattern nothing is specially exciting but there are lots of opportunities depending on which side of the gradient you are.  We haven’t lacked action the past 4-6 weeks.

well the miller A isn't a gradient pattern kinda storm though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That's a Ray jackpot.  That looks like his dream scenario, ha.

Yea, pants>ankles>mic drop. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

In a gradient pattern nothing is specially exciting but there are lots of opportunities depending on which side of the gradient you are.  We haven’t lacked action the past 4-6 weeks.

More like we haven’t lacked rain. 9 of them since the last snowfall.. well prior to your snowfall last nite 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The only one that really jumps out at me with 0.5" radial on just in-situ cold air was the late 90s that started below zero but ended up 50s and thunder later in the afternoon.

Was that Jan ‘99? I think that one had temps ridiculously cold at the onset. Trying to think of some ice storms from back then…obv it wasn’t Jan ‘98…and I can’t remember any other ones…Feb 14, 1997 was kind of big in ORH. But we didn’t have a half inch radial ice in that one. Maybe a quarter inch which is still pretty good. 

[Heisy]

Maybe the best EPS run in a long time for Jan 27+. Both prior events (24th, 27th) def have potential for you guys up N though


.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Was that Jan ‘99? I think that one had temps ridiculously cold at the onset. Trying to think of some ice storms from back then…obv it wasn’t Jan ‘98…and I can’t remember any other ones…Feb 14, 1997 was kind of big in ORH. But we didn’t have a half inch radial ice in that one. Maybe a quarter inch which is still pretty good. 

I think that's the one.

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

well the miller A isn't a gradient pattern kinda storm though.

Forget the verbatim description of a d8 system.

[jbenedet]

I'll take the 12z EPS for Thurs./Friday and run with that.

I think western MA/NW CT can work with this. Thursday, it looks a setup where surface temps will stagnate all day near the morning low out there.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

The warm layer is at 700mb. But yeah, toss that for now. The H7 low starts closing off over DC and heads over ACK yet ramps the WAA way up to EEN.

Well ...that explains the sleet contamination better than - but we both agree it's not likely right.

Also, the BL ...the model does tend to saturate/wet-bulb higher than most other guidance in the mid range.  I see this a lot with the GGEM

   ( and the only reason I bother to discuss is because the GGEM's been through some upgrades over the last 2 years and it has been showing somewhat improved performance...)

 where it places the rain/snow transition around -2 or -3 C at 850mb ... within a pounding CCB head.  Nnnno

[Damage In Tolland]

[Typhoon Tip]

The Euro's agreeing now with the GGEM/GFS re the 'quasi' norlun IVT lagging with persistent light snow on Friday.

I suggest a thread... this specter has been coherent for enough runs.  I told Will I'd do one by last night but I have other discussion obligation that took me off it.  

I'll put one up for moderate risk for (minor+moderate)/2 return

[wx2fish]

17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I'll take the 12z EPS for Thurs./Friday and run with that.

I think western MA/NW CT can work with this. Thursday, it looks a setup where surface temps will stagnate all day near the morning low out 

Warm nose is centered around 850 on the soudnings and gets pretty warm, esp pike south on the 12z stuff. So, I think latitude will be in play too, and of course things could always shift always back north some. The 850 0 line, along with sfc Ts are probably a good approx R/S line for this one. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Well, the euro day 10 looks promising for day 12 or so.  It's all I got down here:  Back when JB was a real meteorologist he would point out the trough to the east of Hawaii as key:

[MJO812]

Eps is lovely

[jbenedet]

14 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Warm nose is centered around 850 on the soudnings and gets pretty warm, esp pike south on the 12z stuff. So, I think latitude will be in play too, and of course things could always shift always back north some. The 850 0 line, along with sfc Ts are probably a good approx R/S line for this one. 

Yea I def see that risk, but there isn't a low level WAA signal either. So my thinking is areas west with dews around freezing can quickly cool the column within few hours of precip onset.  

Which again is why this isn't an ice threat - more of a rain/snow deal.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is lovely

hm ..does look improved. 

[jbenedet]

This look around day 9/10 reminds me a lot of the Arctic blast in December and the prelude to the Buffalo bomb.

Not a good look for us easterners.

 

[jbenedet]

C'mon @MJO812 , you don't even need an imagination for this one.

I just realized this looking through the posts above, but the 12z Euro.... This doesn't look familiar???

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

I just got snow tires for my car! Yay me, studded as well. Sorry NNE, I may have just chased away the snow.

Winter tires are a nice game changer 

[wx2fish]

It's almost useless at this range but the nam is pretty cold at 84hr.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I am interested in the end of week storm for this area.  Up front thumpa’