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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Where are you seeing ice?  It looks like it's mainly rain or snow.

The atmosphere is torched ahead of it.

Look at the 850s as it rolls in.  SFC are like mid/upper 30s as it rolls in.  Not sure where the low level cold push would come from?  It all looks like wet-bulbing.

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-4180000.thumb.png.fcc9f04ab769ae977fcc4046765d2b54.png

Beer

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Where are you seeing ice?  It looks like it's mainly rain or snow.

The atmosphere is torched ahead of it.

Look at the 850s as it rolls in.  SFC are like mid/upper 30s as it rolls in.  Not sure where the low level cold push would come from?  It all looks like wet-bulbing.

 

I told him this earlier but he ignored me. 

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19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Where are you seeing ice?  It looks like it's mainly rain or snow.

The atmosphere is torched ahead of it.

Look at the 850s as it rolls in.  SFC are like mid/upper 30s as it rolls in.  Not sure where the low level cold push would come from?  It all looks like wet-bulbing.

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-4180000.thumb.png.fcc9f04ab769ae977fcc4046765d2b54.png

Sleety look . Can envision a 32-34 zone of sleet prior to any flip to snow. GGEM had more zr look in hilly terrain . Sneaky but weak cad 

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29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-snow_96hr_inch-4313200.thumb.png.45ce2a73d0b031e1f1d90a6e7774fcec.png

This is too N/S to me. I think this gradient gets tilted more SW to NE; rotate the axis a bit. There's an easterly fetch off the Atlantic which i think it gonna hurt eastern areas up until redevelopment. At the same time, low level WAA is non-existent out in southwestern sections, so in-situ sub-freezing dews will stay in place and aid wet bulbing marginal temps.

If 850's are stubborn, the axis I'm alluding to would probably manifest in ice/sleet instead of plain rain. Looking at NW CT, Western MA. 

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This is too N/S to me. I think this gradient gets tilted more SW to NE; rotate the axis a bit. There's an easterly fetch off the Atlantic which i think it gonna hurt eastern areas up until redevelopment. At the same time, low level WAA is non-existent out in southwestern sections, so in-situ sub-freezing dews will stay in place and aid wet bulbing marginal temps.

 

The Kuchie clowns will penalize eastern sections a lot more than the 10:1ers.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The Kuchie clowns will penalize eastern sections a lot more than the 10:1ers.

True. 

I'm just looking at onset across guidance- surface dews are 30-32 in western MA, while northeast MA, mid 30's. And given climo and the wind direction, I'd hedge higher on those, east, and lower on those out west.

 

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

True. 

I'm just looking at onset across guidance- surface dews are 30-32 in western MA, while northeast MA, mid 30's. And given climo and the wind direction, I'd hedge higher on those, east, and lower on those out west.

 

It’s a pretty crappy antecedent.  Sne eastern areas probably need a good late show which is always tenuous.

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hopefully this is correct. this would be a great pattern for you guys, and even good down here near NYC

we finally look to have all of the cold air on our side of the globe, and the TPV itself is in a nice spot, potentially forcing confluence over the 50/50 region. would certainly be active with lots of HP over the top

this isn't fantasy, either. the TPV gets displaced from Greenland around day 7

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5252800.thumb.png.a94c443dbe51dddfdfee02a124db6482.png

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not at all. I think as we keep seeing colder trends and models sniffing out CAD in western zones we may see more ice modeled in coming runs We’ll see 

Nah. I can buy some sleet in a small zone but icing (freezing rain) will be almost non-existent in this. Maybe a really small area in high terrain somewhere south of the snow line but it’s likely negligible. 
 

This is prob a cold rain for most of us until after the main low passes and then we could get an area of light snow as the upper level energy hangs back. But that might end up north too if the whole system trends north which these always have a good chance of doing. 

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14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Keep in mind euro tends to overdo the depth of h5 at that range turning negative tilt and sending a low up east of Cleveland but west of Buffalo.   Doesn’t mean it’s wrong though…

If we have a bunch of baroclinic zone South pushers, it's almost like the atmosphere has a memory, or a path dependence. Trending south begets trending south

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No changes, to our thoughts. It’s coming. The upswing is near…

Our recent winters have been 1-2 weeks in February. Outside of a rogue snowstorm in December or January. Maybe it's a La Nina thing in our little microclimate. I'm ok with that....

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24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not at all. I think as we keep seeing colder trends and models sniffing out CAD in western zones we may see more ice modeled in coming runs We’ll see 

Yeah I guess that was my takeaway, that you need cold air originally to dam it in.  CAD usually requires cold to begin with.

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9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

hopefully this is correct. this would be a great pattern for you guys, and even good down here near NYC

we finally look to have all of the cold air on our side of the globe, and the TPV itself is in a nice spot, potentially forcing confluence over the 50/50 region. would certainly be active with lots of HP over the top

this isn't fantasy, either. the TPV gets displaced from Greenland around day 7

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5252800.thumb.png.a94c443dbe51dddfdfee02a124db6482.png

The PV placement is definitely key when we have the huge Aleutian ridge with some western troughing and a SE ridge. If it’s west of Hudson Bay, we’re in for a rough time mostly, but over or (preferably) east of Hudson Bay, and we can do really well. There will still be  cutter risk of course but typically even the cutters in that type of setup have triple point lows that tend to limit how long we warm sector in New England. 

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