CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Where are you seeing ice? It looks like it's mainly rain or snow. The atmosphere is torched ahead of it. Look at the 850s as it rolls in. SFC are like mid/upper 30s as it rolls in. Not sure where the low level cold push would come from? It all looks like wet-bulbing. Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Where are you seeing ice? It looks like it's mainly rain or snow. The atmosphere is torched ahead of it. Look at the 850s as it rolls in. SFC are like mid/upper 30s as it rolls in. Not sure where the low level cold push would come from? It all looks like wet-bulbing. I told him this earlier but he ignored me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 There's nothing icy in that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 I’d be cautious of a bump back north in the final 36-48 hours as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Or the Bills in 1992 wildcard round against the Oilers. (35-3 in the 3rd quarter) Greatest game I ever saw. Legend. With the backup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d be cautious of a bump back north in the final 36-48 hours as well Usually do with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Euro nails many of us 1/23-24 period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Where are you seeing ice? It looks like it's mainly rain or snow. The atmosphere is torched ahead of it. Look at the 850s as it rolls in. SFC are like mid/upper 30s as it rolls in. Not sure where the low level cold push would come from? It all looks like wet-bulbing. Sleety look . Can envision a 32-34 zone of sleet prior to any flip to snow. GGEM had more zr look in hilly terrain . Sneaky but weak cad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Well... I had given up on the Thurs/Friday deal. Could still easily be a cold rain here but for now there is some hope. Would be good for my student's ski club to ski in actual snow for once 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro nails many of us 1/23-24 period. Then melts it all away 1/25! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, Henry's Weather said: Then melts it all away 1/25! Haha Forget pack this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro nails many of us 1/23-24 period. Details and visuals please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 29 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This is too N/S to me. I think this gradient gets tilted more SW to NE; rotate the axis a bit. There's an easterly fetch off the Atlantic which i think it gonna hurt eastern areas up until redevelopment. At the same time, low level WAA is non-existent out in southwestern sections, so in-situ sub-freezing dews will stay in place and aid wet bulbing marginal temps. If 850's are stubborn, the axis I'm alluding to would probably manifest in ice/sleet instead of plain rain. Looking at NW CT, Western MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I told him this earlier but he ignored me. Not at all. I think as we keep seeing colder trends and models sniffing out CAD in western zones we may see more ice modeled in coming runs We’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Then melts it all away 1/25! Haha Keep in mind euro tends to overdo the depth of h5 at that range turning negative tilt and sending a low up east of Cleveland but west of Buffalo. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong though… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 GEFS continue to look cold in the longer range, even sinking further SE. There are finally no more +10 departures out there past day 9, but who knows.....hope? light at the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: This is too N/S to me. I think this gradient gets tilted more SW to NE; rotate the axis a bit. There's an easterly fetch off the Atlantic which i think it gonna hurt eastern areas up until redevelopment. At the same time, low level WAA is non-existent out in southwestern sections, so in-situ sub-freezing dews will stay in place and aid wet bulbing marginal temps. The Kuchie clowns will penalize eastern sections a lot more than the 10:1ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Details and visuals please! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: GEFS continue to look cold in the longer range, even sinking further SE. There are finally no more +10 departures out there past day 9, but who knows.....hope? light at the end? No changes, to our thoughts. It’s coming. The upswing is near… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: The Kuchie clowns will penalize eastern sections a lot more than the 10:1ers. True. I'm just looking at onset across guidance- surface dews are 30-32 in western MA, while northeast MA, mid 30's. And given climo and the wind direction, I'd hedge higher on those, east, and lower on those out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: True. I'm just looking at onset across guidance- surface dews are 30-32 in western MA, while northeast MA, mid 30's. And given climo and the wind direction, I'd hedge higher on those, east, and lower on those out west. It’s a pretty crappy antecedent. Sne eastern areas probably need a good late show which is always tenuous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/11/2023 at 11:06 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Where is that? Off of Cambridge or Hampshire Street? Looks familiar but can't place it... This is Malcom Street, near Lakeview Ave. close to Fresh Pond. Sorry - late post, just seeing this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 hopefully this is correct. this would be a great pattern for you guys, and even good down here near NYC we finally look to have all of the cold air on our side of the globe, and the TPV itself is in a nice spot, potentially forcing confluence over the 50/50 region. would certainly be active with lots of HP over the top this isn't fantasy, either. the TPV gets displaced from Greenland around day 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 I just got snow tires for my car! Yay me, studded as well. Sorry NNE, I may have just chased away the snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not at all. I think as we keep seeing colder trends and models sniffing out CAD in western zones we may see more ice modeled in coming runs We’ll see Nah. I can buy some sleet in a small zone but icing (freezing rain) will be almost non-existent in this. Maybe a really small area in high terrain somewhere south of the snow line but it’s likely negligible. This is prob a cold rain for most of us until after the main low passes and then we could get an area of light snow as the upper level energy hangs back. But that might end up north too if the whole system trends north which these always have a good chance of doing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Keep in mind euro tends to overdo the depth of h5 at that range turning negative tilt and sending a low up east of Cleveland but west of Buffalo. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong though… If we have a bunch of baroclinic zone South pushers, it's almost like the atmosphere has a memory, or a path dependence. Trending south begets trending south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: Love those overnight 3-6" deals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No changes, to our thoughts. It’s coming. The upswing is near… Our recent winters have been 1-2 weeks in February. Outside of a rogue snowstorm in December or January. Maybe it's a La Nina thing in our little microclimate. I'm ok with that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not at all. I think as we keep seeing colder trends and models sniffing out CAD in western zones we may see more ice modeled in coming runs We’ll see Yeah I guess that was my takeaway, that you need cold air originally to dam it in. CAD usually requires cold to begin with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: hopefully this is correct. this would be a great pattern for you guys, and even good down here near NYC we finally look to have all of the cold air on our side of the globe, and the TPV itself is in a nice spot, potentially forcing confluence over the 50/50 region. would certainly be active with lots of HP over the top this isn't fantasy, either. the TPV gets displaced from Greenland around day 7 The PV placement is definitely key when we have the huge Aleutian ridge with some western troughing and a SE ridge. If it’s west of Hudson Bay, we’re in for a rough time mostly, but over or (preferably) east of Hudson Bay, and we can do really well. There will still be cutter risk of course but typically even the cutters in that type of setup have triple point lows that tend to limit how long we warm sector in New England. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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