Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 GFS is back to suggesting more snow Friday ...but the system evolution is also morphing. It's looking like a marginal BL event entry, with an isentropic burst over top overnight Thursday... cold rain and probably cat paws/sleety, but toward the end of that phase of things...there is an attempt to flash RT 2/S NH over to soaked cotton balls toward 12z Friday. Then,...there is more emphasis being placed on the trailing jet max during the day. The interior transitions, prolonging the event as a possible 9 or even 12 hours of persistent light snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd prefer and 07-08 look to a classic coastal look, at this point. Was that a more gradient look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Canadian screws NNE at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Verbatim that's like 36 hrs of snow in the Berks Greens and Monads. There's def upside risk in long duration with this. Guidance continuing to show the possibility. Mostly of the light variety but nice in any season. Yeah the last few gfs runs have been hitting that inverted trough type setup that blossoms as the upper level support approaches. Prolongs precip into Friday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Canadian with a similar evolution to the GFS. Can we get the euro on board at close range too? Grasping at straws. We just need a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Icy on GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: Yeah the last few gfs runs have been hitting that inverted trough type setup that blossoms as the upper level support approaches. Prolongs precip into Friday Yea the UL trough is pretty energetic across guidance - so I believe chances favor continued light snow until it swings through. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Was that a more gradient look? Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Snowstorm to flurries for North Conway on the Canadian. Hopefully that’s wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Snowstorm to flurries for North Conway on the Canadian. Hopefully that’s wrong If it’s snowstorm in N Conway then SNE is probably cooked so we take your loss as our gain, no offense 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Might have to consider significant icing Pike south Thursday night Sell that idea. Lower levels are garbage ahead of this so I don’t like the icing idea…maybe an extremely narrow zone could get a bit of ice. There is a chance we get a flip to snow as the upper level support hangs back for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Nothing more winter 22-23 than the end of that GGEM run. Beautiful looking set-up big snow. But in 2022-23 fashion... the model says it's mostly sleet somehow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Nothing more winter 22-23 than the end of that GGEM run. Beautiful looking set-up big snow. But in 2022-23 fashion... the model says it's mostly sleet somehow. It’s the 3rd quarter and we’re down 35-3. We just need to get some scores on the board. Even if we’re just trying to make it respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s the 3rd quarter and we’re down 35-3. We just need to get some scores on the board. Even if we’re just trying to make it respectable. Please tell me the opposing coach is Brandon Staley . Love to see what chargers would do with a different coach 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 29 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Nothing more winter 22-23 than the end of that GGEM run. Beautiful looking set-up big snow. But in 2022-23 fashion... the model says it's mostly sleet somehow. I realize your post was for dark humor/sarcasm but ... I took a look at the other synoptic metrics just for shits and giggles and that's basically impossible what it's doing there a few hours either side of 228. Vastly too warm relative to it's own guidance parametrics. The GGEM ( for the general audience) has a whopper warm BL bias in that range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I realize your post was for dark humor/sarcasm but ... I took a look at the other synoptic metrics just for shits and giggles and that's basically impossible what it's doing there a few hours either side of 228. Vastly too warm relative to it's own guidance parametrics. The GGEM ( for the general audience) has a whopper warm BL bias in that range. The warm layer is at 700mb. But yeah, toss that for now. The H7 low starts closing off over DC and heads over ACK yet ramps the WAA way up to EEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I realize your post was for dark humor/sarcasm but ... I took a look at the other synoptic metrics just for shits and giggles and that's basically impossible what it's doing there a few hours either side of 228. Vastly too warm relative to it's own guidance parametrics. The GGEM ( for the general audience) has a whopper warm BL bias in that range. Yeah I didn't dig into it in the least, just thought it was funny how the model is like "let's show a perfect set-up and then code it all ice. That'll show them." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Looks a touch colder Thu/early Fri on the Euro. Doesn’t do much here but Pike region should like. Not sure about backlash snow yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks a touch colder Thu/early Fri on the Euro. Doesn’t do much here but Pike region should like. Not sure about backlash snow yet. That's a Ray jackpot. That looks like his dream scenario, ha. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 45 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Please tell me the opposing coach is Brandon Staley . Love to see what chargers would do with a different coach The best Staley related tweet I saw FanDuel Sportsbook @FDSportsbook Brandon Staley on his way to join Kliff Kingsbury in Thailand: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, powderfreak said: That's a Ray jackpot. The SWFE is the way to go there. NNE view as well plz 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 54 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s the 3rd quarter and we’re down 35-3. We just need to get some scores on the board. Even if we’re just trying to make it respectable. That’s a negative analogy. It’s late in the 2nd quarter and we are the Jags down 27-0 to the Chargers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Looks good for burying some bodies! Might almost be able to ski up there again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NNE view as well plz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: That’s a negative analogy. It’s late in the 2nd quarter and we are the Jags down 27-0 to the Chargers. Or the Bills in 1992 wildcard round against the Oilers. (35-3 in the 3rd quarter) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: That’s a negative analogy. It’s late in the 2nd quarter and we are the Jags down 27-0 to the Chargers. We hope. We pray. We know better. In all seriousness, I think MA north is looking pretty good for the end of the work week right now. Need a lot more help here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks a touch colder Thu/early Fri on the Euro. Doesn’t do much here but Pike region should like. Not sure about backlash snow yet. Icier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Nice 3-6 refresher for the mountains. I’d take and run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Icier Where are you seeing ice? It looks like it's mainly rain or snow. The atmosphere is torched ahead of it. Look at the 850s as it rolls in. SFC are like mid/upper 30s as it rolls in. Not sure where the low level cold push would come from? It all looks like wet-bulbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Icier Really not feeling ice aside from a narrow zone. We snow or rain, I think. Would like to see a colder trend continue for 18z. Tracking this is much better than the long range crap. At least it feels like a tangible opportunity to get in the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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