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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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GFS is back to suggesting more snow Friday ...but the system evolution is also morphing.

It's looking like a marginal BL event entry, with an isentropic burst over top overnight Thursday... cold rain and probably cat paws/sleety, but toward the end of that phase of things...there is an attempt to flash RT 2/S NH over to soaked cotton balls toward 12z Friday.

Then,...there is more emphasis being placed on the trailing jet max during the day. The interior transitions, prolonging the event as a possible 9 or even 12 hours of persistent light snow. 

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Verbatim that's like 36 hrs of snow in the Berks Greens and Monads. There's def upside risk in long duration with this. Guidance continuing to show the possibility.

Mostly of the light variety but nice in any season.

Yeah the last few gfs runs have been hitting that inverted trough type setup that blossoms as the upper level support approaches. Prolongs precip into Friday

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1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Yeah the last few gfs runs have been hitting that inverted trough type setup that blossoms as the upper level support approaches. Prolongs precip into Friday

Yea the UL trough is pretty energetic across guidance - so I believe chances favor continued light snow until it swings through. 

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44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Might have to consider significant icing Pike south Thursday night 

Sell that idea. Lower levels are garbage ahead of this so I don’t like the icing idea…maybe an extremely narrow zone could get a bit of ice. There is a chance we get a flip to snow as the upper level support hangs back for quite a while. 

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nothing more winter 22-23 than the end of that GGEM run.

Beautiful looking set-up big snow.

1.thumb.png.a06ade8588e571fb418ce516a9c9fc38.png

 

But in 2022-23 fashion... the model says it's mostly sleet somehow.

2.thumb.png.519ec2248fc01278fc13780ea10a10a3.png

It’s the 3rd quarter and we’re down 35-3. We just need to get some scores on the board. Even if we’re just trying to make it respectable. 

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29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nothing more winter 22-23 than the end of that GGEM run.

Beautiful looking set-up big snow.

1.thumb.png.a06ade8588e571fb418ce516a9c9fc38.png

 

But in 2022-23 fashion... the model says it's mostly sleet somehow.

2.thumb.png.519ec2248fc01278fc13780ea10a10a3.png

I realize your post was for dark humor/sarcasm but ... I took a look at the other synoptic metrics just for shits and giggles and that's basically impossible what it's doing there a few hours either side of 228.

Vastly too warm relative to it's own guidance parametrics.   The GGEM ( for the general audience) has a whopper warm BL bias in that range. 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize your post was for dark humor/sarcasm but ... I took a look at the other synoptic metrics just for shits and giggles and that's basically impossible what it's doing there a few hours either side of 228.

Vastly too warm relative to it's own guidance parametrics.   The GGEM ( for the general audience) has a whopper warm BL bias in that range. 

The warm layer is at 700mb. But yeah, toss that for now. The H7 low starts closing off over DC and heads over ACK yet ramps the WAA way up to EEN.

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize your post was for dark humor/sarcasm but ... I took a look at the other synoptic metrics just for shits and giggles and that's basically impossible what it's doing there a few hours either side of 228.

Vastly too warm relative to it's own guidance parametrics.   The GGEM ( for the general audience) has a whopper warm BL bias in that range. 

Yeah I didn't dig into it in the least, just thought it was funny how the model is like "let's show a perfect set-up and then code it all ice.  That'll show them."

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54 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s the 3rd quarter and we’re down 35-3. We just need to get some scores on the board. Even if we’re just trying to make it respectable. 

That’s a negative analogy. It’s late in the 2nd quarter and we are the Jags down 27-0 to the Chargers. 

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2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

That’s a negative analogy. It’s late in the 2nd quarter and we are the Jags down 27-0 to the Chargers. 

We hope. We pray. We know better. 

In all seriousness, I think MA north is looking pretty good for the end of the work week right now. Need a lot more help here. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Icier 

Where are you seeing ice?  It looks like it's mainly rain or snow.

The atmosphere is torched ahead of it.

Look at the 850s as it rolls in.  SFC are like mid/upper 30s as it rolls in.  Not sure where the low level cold push would come from?  It all looks like wet-bulbing.

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-4180000.thumb.png.fcc9f04ab769ae977fcc4046765d2b54.png

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Icier 

Really not feeling ice aside from a narrow zone. We snow or rain, I think. Would like to see a colder trend continue for 18z. 

Tracking this is much better than the long range crap. At least it feels like a tangible opportunity to get in the board. 

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