STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 52 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: jelly? He acts like he forgets electric blue is in Tolland. I think he had some kind of mishap there . He said two days ago he was grabbing 1 or 2”. Maybe he bit off more than he could ..chew.. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Gradient has been looking likely in the means with several systems running the same zones. Brian will know best, and probably Jeff, but this map looks like an 07-08 gradient. Brian's area had almost 150". We came up in December and again January to look at and then buy our first house in Webster, and we were amazed at the size of the snow piles. I was so stoked thinking this would happen every year! lol. But I know that year regularly served up disappointments south of the NH border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 The 00Z EPS was an interesting trend. It's a tough sell though... it's tough to be abused for months and then drop that sentiment and be purely analytic/objective about regional chances ( got it ), but the EPS mean has significant number of members with a sub-index scale nuke. Those are tough to ferret out of any D7 range, let alone during a supposed pattern change period. Re the latter...the pattern is still destined to change, but to what? The bamboozle in this is that it doesn't appear to be changing toward one that is ideally useful to winter enthusiasts over the eastern continent. But as other's have rightfully pointed out...we can still do okay with cold loads into the Can shield, and a ridging depicted SE ... It's a matter of favoring storm typology - which, no surprise, a 00z EPS and 12z Euro *(yesterday) and 00z "ICAN'T" runs...sarcasm aside, might fit that kind of tapestry. I'm not willing to punt the 23rd, ... I only admit to it's low probability for positive return, and am willing to wait a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dec and Jan fully lost now. Only 1 month left March and April are winter months. November & December are just fall. January is a swing month. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 51 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Brian will know best, and probably Jeff, but this map looks like an 07-08 gradient. Brian's area had almost 150". We came up in December and again January to look at and then buy our first house in Webster, and we were amazed at the size of the snow piles. I was so stoked thinking this would happen every year! lol. But I know that year regularly served up disappointments south of the NH border. The one late week fits the bill as a SWFE with that gradient look moving thru the upper ohio valley, The next two on the 06z GFS look more Miller B'ish coming out of the lower tennessee valley and off the New England coast under SNE into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: The one late week fits the bill as a SWFE with that gradient look moving thru the upper ohio valley, The next two on the 06z GFS look more Miller B'ish coming out of the lower tennessee valley and off the New England coast under SNE into the GOM. If there's any good news at all, is that the atmospheric river so to speak should stop after the storm coming ashore in the next day for the west coast. So, what we do see coming in next week will be coming out of Canada as opposed to the Pacific. At least that's a bit of a better setup than it had been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 27 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: If there's any good news at all, is that the atmospheric river so to speak should stop after the storm coming ashore in the next day for the west coast. So, what we do see coming in next week will be coming out of Canada as opposed to the Pacific. At least that's a bit of a better setup than it had been. Shutting off the mammoth mountain snow parade is not a bad thing for us . It’s peak climo so this would be the time (next 4 weeks) to capitalize if we can keep things active , and if a good look actually materializes for the coastal plain then ..great 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 For us southerners we will need great sewing skill...like threading the needle one handed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 41 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: If there's any good news at all, is that the atmospheric river so to speak should stop after the storm coming ashore in the next day for the west coast. So, what we do see coming in next week will be coming out of Canada as opposed to the Pacific. At least that's a bit of a better setup than it had been. Your chances of seeing snow with Canada void of cold air and a trough over the pacific west is extremely low odds here in the east as we've seen, It does look better as we roll forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: Brian will know best, and probably Jeff, but this map looks like an 07-08 gradient. Brian's area had almost 150". We came up in December and again January to look at and then buy our first house in Webster, and we were amazed at the size of the snow piles. I was so stoked thinking this would happen every year! lol. But I know that year regularly served up disappointments south of the NH border. This was peak depth 3/1/08. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, dryslot said: The one late week fits the bill as a SWFE with that gradient look moving thru the upper ohio valley, The next two on the 06z GFS look more Miller B'ish coming out of the lower tennessee valley and off the New England coast under SNE into the GOM. I'm seeing it the opposite. This week is an outside week. First seen with the coastal, and then Thurs./Fri with weak confluence in the Northeast and SE Canada. MJO phase 1/8 is flexing, despite the poor long wave pattern. But this is transient. Pattern is back open to UL ridging all along the east coast by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: This was peak depth 3/1/08. You should post a trigger warning before these. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I'm seeing it the opposite. This week is an outside week. First seen with the coastal, and then Thurs./Fri with weak confluence in the Northeast and SE Canada. MJO phase 1/8 is flexing, despite the poor long wave pattern. But this is transient. Pattern is back open to UL ridging all along the east coast by next weekend. Correct 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: This was peak depth 3/1/08. 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You should post a trigger warning before these. Kind of works the same way when 2010 gets mentioned, It sets off a few different regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: This was peak depth 3/1/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 We powder day Friday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 22 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I'm seeing it the opposite. This week is an outside week. First seen with the coastal, and then Thurs./Fri with weak confluence in the Northeast and SE Canada. MJO phase 1/8 is flexing, despite the poor long wave pattern. But this is transient. Pattern is back open to UL ridging all along the east coast by next weekend. You have been spot on all winter, but hope you are wrong. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 29 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I'm seeing it the opposite. This week is an outside week. First seen with the coastal, and then Thurs./Fri with weak confluence in the Northeast and SE Canada. MJO phase 1/8 is flexing, despite the poor long wave pattern. But this is transient. Pattern is back open to UL ridging all along the east coast by next weekend. I'm speaking in terms for NNE, It will be fine up here, You on the other hand south, Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I'm speaking in terms for NNE, It will be fine up here, You on the other hand south, Yeah. I am on the SW coast and just want to avoid my lowest snowfall total of 3.5 in 97/98. At 1.5 now so a tall task in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We powder day Friday ? After all the discussion, worry and hand-wringing… it would be absolutely hilarious if you get a powder day. Couldn't be more “on brand” for you lol. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: After all the discussion, worry and hand-wringing… it would be absolutely hilarious if you get a powder day. Couldn't be more “on brand” for you lol. Warning event for VT NH ski areas on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Maybe some minor snow Friday on the GFS down here as colder air advects in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Mehhing our way to the best snow threat for the subforum this season. It's a low bar, I know; but solid look at day 4. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Gfs a tick colder at 12z for Thursday nite / Friday am . Not bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Might have to consider significant icing Pike south Thursday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Gfs a tick colder at 12z for Thursday nite / Friday am . Not bad Getting at least a more widespread 2”+ zone going too. Some of this map is upslope midweek up here and not the Fri system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 I'd prefer and 07-08 look to a classic coastal look, at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Gfs a tick colder at 12z for Thursday nite / Friday am . Not bad Verbatim that's like 36 hrs of snow in the Berks Greens and Monads. There's def upside risk in long duration with this. Guidance continuing to show the possibility. Mostly of the light variety but nice in any season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd prefer and 07-08 look to a classic coastal look, at this point. Odds are definitely better at seeing snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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