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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

High pressure in a good spot currently on the ecmwf and gfs models I just peaked at .  I don’t dislike that look for Friday 

Airmass is crappy in front of it, but yeah verbatim the euro has the freezing line extending into N MA for a good chunk of precip. I'm not expecting a whole lot, but worth watching the runs today for SNH, esp elevated areas. 

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23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

High pressure in a good spot currently on the ecmwf and gfs models I just peaked at .  I don’t dislike that look for Friday . But areas near NH/MA line will have a better shot

For Thurs/Fri, I believe down to the southern Berks is very much in this one. Another case of a weak cold tuck that is displaced west and most pronounced well inland. This aspect will probably surprise to the cold-side.  At the same time I could see ORH east having p-type issues until way end. 

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29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Unreadable this morning 

I will say looks like a gradient may set up over SNE 

I was thinking the same thing.  Weren't parts of 07-08 like this, with NH getting constant 6-12, but SNE getting screwed a few times?  I feel cautiously optimistic, though that is a dangerous state of mind this year. 

I've noticed WPC has been pretty steady in showing a moderate chance of snow up here Thursday-Friday, and GYX seem reasonably confident for a plowable mostly snow storm.  I know we are right on the edge, but it can be a very good set-up for us sometimes.  Also this comment from the overnight GYX AFD:  

Overall, at 500 MB, the pattern across NOAM begins to show
signs of something closer to +PNA than we have seen lately by
the end of the week, and even perhaps a -NAO toward Day 7-8, but
this is low confidence at this point. Also, some signs of
colder air moving equatorward out of the Arctic, but how much of
that makes in into New England remains to be seen. Although the
trend is for closer to normal temps, 850 MB temps still stay
mostly several degrees C above normal based on SPC RAOB
climatology for GYX. As far as precip goes, fairly dynamic, but
fast moving 500 Mb closed low looks to bring the best chance of
widespread precip Thu-Fri.

And this comment from Legro yesterday afternoon:

Wed high pressure builds towards the area as another area of low
pressure ejects from the Plains and moves towards the Northeast.
As things stand right now the pattern is supportive of a more
inland track. However the pattern is also supportive of holding
the low level cold air via damming. So for the time being I have
hedged cooler at the surface while allowing for some mixing with
warmer temps aloft. The set up is fairly reminiscent of many of
our snow to sleet events that follow with a dry slot and
drizzle.

That pattern looks to remain in place into next week...and so we
could have a few more chances for snow in the next 7 to 10
days...along with some risk for mixing.
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