Heisy Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Heh...if it makes you feel any better ( probably not... ) that event had a fairly low probability for a positive return all along. That said, it's not sealed in fate just yet. That's still 4 or 5 days away. It's hard to maintain an objective vigil ... when there wasn't one to begin with hahaha.. No but, given the winter we've had, makes it sort of difficult to imagine anything working out really. It's been a little uncanny thus far? I wanna hammer it harder but I can't, not based upon decades of experiencing ups and downs. I remember a winter in the 1990s... right in the middle of a fantastic decade. 1994-1995. Man, that year stood out as numero uno sore butt year of all time... Until 2011-2012. But ...actually, both years had at least one decent event. The one in '94-'95 was a February 5 coastal bomb. Storm went from like 1004 mb to 970something in 10 minutes. It was too progressive to really be a big dawg, but there resulted 10 to 18" totals around the region, nonetheless. At peak strike, up at UML ... I recall est 1/16 mi vis snow/wind combo. It ended a remarkable streak of horrible luck though - in some senses, it was worse than this year, because first of all, that was the first snow of the season that really meant anything anywhere ... a bit later than our current plight at Jan 15. Secondly, much of the season the pattern was characterized as a 'low amplitude +PNA'. It looked from orbit like we should be doing better but nothing would ever break right. The persistent pattern just looked similar to this for 60 days prior to the coastal bomb... ...resulting in nothing... From orbit, that seems it shoulda been better. Not sure if it was warmer than normal ...I don't recall. I just remember the pattern looking similar to that above, unrelentingly too flat to actually do much of anything. Then this happened... This storm actually got me hooked at young age to snow. I lived right outside Philly. Woke up to thunder snow before dawn that scared the hell out of me. Was only 8 yrs old. It was snowing insanely heavyVerified it a couple years ago that willow grove pa reported thunder snow. I lived right near there at the time. This radar is around 6am, must have been when I was woken up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I've pretty much resigned myself to this. It feels like one giant November Lol, my wife, who is not a weather weenie, said last night, “it feels like perpetual November this winter”. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: For the 100th time George, it doesn’t always spell doom and gloom. If the PV is over Hudson Bay, or even east of there, things can and have worked out for SNE. The Blizzard of 2013 had -PNA/trough out west. Now who the F knows what will play out this season, but that’s no death knell if you have that PV in the right place. It’s more likely then not the PV is not ideal especially for southern SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 hours ago, moneypitmike said: Nice run for Maine. Up and in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s more likely then not the PV is not ideal especially for southern SNE. According to Will yesterday Pickles, he said what I said to George. Point being, if it stays where it is showing now, we’ll have chances. And no one is looking for ideal lol…ideal doesn’t exist for us this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 I was so looking forward to this Winter. Then in on late November everything looked like it be was going be a BIG December and an awesome pattern for Snow lovers. Well.. that never happened. Alright we are mid way through January, and it doesn't look good for the rest of this month ( and I'm not even going think about February at this point ). But... BUT... Just as the pattern has been in the s******, we all know that there's surprises that we do get. Even in these crappy patterns. I'm just waiting for that to happen.. even if it's just once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 43 minutes ago, Heisy said: This storm actually got me hooked at young age to snow. I lived right outside Philly. Woke up to thunder snow before dawn that scared the hell out of me. Was only 8 yrs old. It was snowing insanely heavy Verified it a couple years ago that willow grove pa reported thunder snow. I lived right near there at the time. This radar is around 6am, must have been when I was woken up . That was my one snow day all of 8th grade...miserable winter. Had about 1' in Wilmington. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I was so looking forward to this Winter. Then in on late November everything looked like it be was going be a BIG December and an awesome pattern for Snow lovers. Well.. that never happened. Alright we are mid way through January, and it doesn't look good for the rest of this month ( and I'm not even going think about February at this point ). But... BUT... Just as the pattern has been in the s******, we all know that there's surprises that we do get. Even in these crappy patterns. I'm just waiting for that to happen.. even if it's just once. It actually never , ever looked like that. At all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It actually never , ever looked like that. At all That's not true. Look back in November. the pattern definitely had a good look to it , especially going into December. So I'm not sure what you're talking about, but back then it had a better look. Go drink yourself some more beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: That's not true. Look back in November. the pattern definitely had a good look to it , especially going into December. So I'm not sure what you're talking about, but back then it had a better look. Go drink yourself some more beer It never looked like epic snowy pattern . There were caution flags all over and a few folks threw them but most ignored them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 This sounds awesome. Another great week of snow and cold ahead ! Thursday through Sunday... More active weather arrives for the latter half of the week though early signs are not in favor of this storm being a big snow maker. A vertically stacked low strengthens in the lee of the Rockies on Wednesday then reaches the Great Lakes on Thursday and crosses New England along with its secondary low Thursday night into Friday. At this time most global guidance shows above freezing temperatures from the surface to 700 mb indicating another rain event for most locations; best odds of snow are in the normally favored high elevations of interior MA where ensemble probabilities of >1 inch of snow are below 50% even for most of the high elevations. Beyond that next weekend is looking drier beneath more zonal flow and no real arctic airmass in sight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It never looked like epic snowy pattern . There were caution flags all over and a few folks threw them but most ignored them I'll be sure to pay attention to your lips next time ... Mr. Miyagi The way you go back and forth with your emotions, I love the way you preach ... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Nice 12z runs for the mountains for end of the week deal 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 I don't know the "next" one for Thursday/Friday air mass sucks, BUT 4 days out...who knows, but at this point being optimistic is tough, lol its still light out as I type this, days getting longer, this should be the coldest part of winter this week, but not happening. At least we have things to track, but what a great sunset to the west right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Holy shit what a sunset 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Things remain painfully unburied for this time of year with only a crusty inch on the ground with a pixie dust coating covering it, but looking back at the past 5 years of snowfall data (I moved here in March 2018, right before that epic stretch), this winter has had the same general tenor of the past several, albeit warmer. We had a significant pre Xmas snowstorm in all of these winters, except 2021-22, only to have it wiped out by a torch in the Xmas to mid January timeframe followed by a recovery from late January through February primarily resulting from SWFE type events. February 2022 was terrible and we lost our winter pack by late month, only to regain a temporary pack in March. 2020 had a mega January torch only to recover to a decent 25-30" depth my mid February so there's hope. Looking forward we may recover over the next two weeks and beyond with a classic SWFE gradient pattern that favors areas north of the Pike. Jackson, NH and Newry, ME look like good places to be in this upcoming pattern. It's somewhat borderline here in S VT, but hopefully we can cash in on at least some of them on the eastern slope. I'll gladly take a series of 3-5" or 6-8" type events, even if they contain some taint. The past few weeks have been nothing short of a disaster... The late week SWFE coming may very be too warm in the midlevels for much more than some bookend snows here, but early next week and beyond may be better. Snowfall totals through 1/15 and season totals: 2022-23: 45.7" ??? 2021-22: 39.8" 117.9" 2020-21: 50.1" 137.8" 2019-20: 59.2" 143.5" 2018-19: 68.9" 149.8" 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 What is sticking up from the ground and/or unburied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 6 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I'm not familiar with the initials CFS? It's the same ting as the GEFS? Wow I thought I had deleted that post quickly! I mistakenly thought you posted a CFS v2 output map, which usually tends to run warm. (As others mentioned, “Climate Forecast System) The extended 00z GEFS is relatively new since the upgrade to the GFS last year… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 19 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Wow I thought I had deleted that post quickly! I mistakenly thought you posted a CFS v2 output map, which usually tends to run warm. (As others mentioned, “Climate Forecast System) The extended 00z GEFS is relatively new since the upgrade to the GFS last year… You gotta be quick around here, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I've pretty much resigned myself to this. It feels like one giant November This is the 4th winter in a row I have deemed "Eternal November." And each "Eternal November" just gets worse and worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Just started here about 30 mins ago, -SN, 30/17°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just started here about 30 mins ago, -SN, 30/17°F Hope you do well Jeff. Anything is a win in this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Holy shit what a sunset Seen some great ones posted on FB tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hope you do well Jeff. Anything is a win in this winter so far. Thanks, Looks like we finally get into winter this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Nostalgia storms -- the last refuge of the skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 On 12/12/2022 at 7:19 AM, Torch Tiger said: The ski resorts should be in good shape overall, so not all is bad. But for many of us: :O 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 We want out. End this winter for New England please 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: We want out. End this winter for New England please Wouldn’t it be nice if we could do that…we got two full months of this misery to go. For me and Dryslot and Lava, at least the far northern areas are taking off. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Wouldn’t it be nice if we could do that…we got two full months of this misery to go. For me and Dryslot and Lava, at least the far northern areas are taking off. Tblizz too. He’s been very concerned about mountain forecasts lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We want out. End this winter for New England please looks solid for NNE, let's gooooo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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