January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[WinterWolf]

Ya I remember the CFS-V2…the thing was constantly warm.  

[Snowcrazed71]

Well... Although there's not much in the future model runs to give us high hopes, I'm still hopeful we will pull out a nice sneaky snow event for the Northeast in February. 

That's all we can do at this point ( although Northern New England should do better ). 

We will have our winter down this way again.... Just have to wait. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s been around for quite awhile-it’s the long range climate forecasting system from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

funny...I check it out, mainly just for popcorn and coke.  It seems to always have a more preferable solution in winter day-to-day runs, than the GEFs.

I almost wonder if that's because the climate USE to carry on with more preferred solutions.  Ha, so it is mixing that up with the shit we eat in the more 'organic' now-climate.

Lol

[mreaves]

3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

fully aware

my concern in c/nne

You going to N. Conway with TBlizz?

[WeatherX]

I'm not familiar with the initials CFS?  It's the same ting as the GEFS?

Closed Fucking Shades (especially south of the pike) until the next phantom awesome period shows up in the 10-15 day range


.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

You going to N. Conway with TBlizz?

Nope.  Wanna give my juju to the folks that need it most.

[cleetussnow]

45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cc at play here obviously.

[George001]

I hate seeing a trough out west on the models. When that happens lows run inland leading to rain for us.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

I hate seeing a trough out west on the models. When that happens lows run inland leading to rain for us.

For the 100th time George, it doesn’t always spell doom and gloom. If the PV is over Hudson Bay, or even east of there, things can and have worked out for SNE.  The Blizzard of 2013 had -PNA/trough out west.  
 

Now who the F knows what will play out this season, but that’s no death knell if you have that PV in the right place. 

[qg_omega]

On 1/12/2023 at 9:29 PM, qg_omega said:

I hate the PAC SST anomalies and MOJ 8 and 1 were forecasted to be very strong and busted very badly.  

I am very hesitant to go against the persistent trough in the west and any SSW may send the PV into the west coast.  I was at +8 for January (forecasted in early December) and while I may be too warm in a spot or two, overall it will be on point.  I don’t think that degree of warmth will sustain and I do see the possibility of transient cold shots.  However I don’t see the end to the cold out west, even if they get drier.  I would favor north of I90 for any SWFE snow event but each storm will have rain/snow lines and trend warm as we get closer.  March will likely end up the best shot but I hate March snow events.  Overall, a very frustrating east coast winter but historic west coast.

 

No changes

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No changes

At some point things have to change though…I mean it just can’t keep going like this continuously.  There’s gonna be a tipping point…just a matter of when? 

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No changes

February 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, MJO812 said:

February 

I mean at some point it has to, and will change.  No pattern lasts forever..bad or good. 

[dendrite]

56 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No changes

Still I see no changes
Can’t a weenie get a little sleet?
No snow on the progs and no snow in the northeast

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I mean at some point it has to, and will change.  No pattern lasts forever..bad or good. 

100% honestly...I am tiring of this season.  It needs to either shit or get off of the pot. I have been finding myself checking out and just longing for the warm season. Already been researching for fantasy baseball. If it isn't going to snow and significantly at that, I just assume split the PV...plant one over AK, the other over Greenland and be done with it. 

Honestly being 100% genuine...not sarcastic or a melt. I'm just exhausted by it all and have zero interest in chasing stray bands and shards of accumulating snow off of the Atlantic from a long deceased ocean storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

There is nothing more miserable than a "cold" season that won't snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I mean at some point it has to, and will change.  No pattern lasts forever..bad or good. 

It can change into another regime that blows.

[dendrite]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is nothing more miserable than a cold season that won't snow.

At least it hasn't really been cold. I wonder if I can get to Feb with a low of only 9F on the season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

At least it hasn't really been cold. I wonder if I can get to Feb with a low of only 9F on the season.

Right, but you know what I mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, I am going to on the developing el nino like a fly on shit this year.....flush this ENSO the fu#$ out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Part of me also wants to just rat the fu@# out this season...especially if we aren't going to score a huge event. Let's go for futility and shut the regression zealots up headed into the el nino. Build up some good weather karma.

[moneypitmike]

Nice run for Maine.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Nice 12z runs for at least a moderate snow event in NNE next Thursday night. We’d take that

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Honestly, looks like a lot more can kicking through the end of the month in SNE.

Instead of the gradient being over Quebec, it’s now over stowe, that’s really the only change on a lot of these runs. Sensible weather is the same it’s been for the last two months 

[Torch Tiger]

18 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Nice run for Maine.

great!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It can change into another regime that blows.

Yeah it can morph into a miserable cold damp spring.  Obviously I hope not but that’s my fear.   Lousy winter and then raw until May 1st. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

100% honestly...I am tiring of this season.  It needs to either shit or get off of the pot. I have been finding myself checking out and just longing for the warm season. Already been researching for fantasy baseball. If it isn't going to snow and significantly at that, I just assume split the PV...plant one over AK, the other over Greenland and be done with it. 

Honestly being 100% genuine...not sarcastic or a melt. I'm just exhausted by it all and have zero interest in chasing stray bands and shards of accumulating snow off of the Atlantic from a long deceased ocean storm.

Bingo ... A bit early for me, so ...I'm not saying I'm entirely there - yet.   But my patience is wearing thin.  It also has nothing to do with whether I can be objective about where we've been, are at, or are going - but I am a realist, and it does grow more difficult to maintain interest when uninspiring nuance is controlling every outcome.

By the way folks, nice quasi 2005 Dec analog on the 12z Euro 7.5 day...  ha, in contrast to the sentiment I just leveled above -

[HoarfrostHubb]

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah it can morph into a miserable cold damp spring.  Obviously I hope not but that’s my fear.   Lousy winter and then raw until May 1st. 

I've pretty much resigned myself to this.  It feels like one giant November

[HoarfrostHubb]

12z Euro pretty much sealed the deal for Thursday night/Friday for this area (we knew the writing on the wall anyway)

 

Another icy/rainy evening into the next day.  

This blows

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

12z Euro pretty much sealed the deal for Thursday night/Friday for this area (we knew the writing on the wall anyway)

 

Another icy/rainy evening into the next day.  

This blows

Heh...if it makes you feel any better ( probably not... ) that event had a fairly low probability for a positive return all along.  That said, it's not sealed in fate just yet.  That's still 4 or 5 days away.  

It's hard to maintain an objective vigil ... when there wasn't one to begin with hahaha.. No but, given the winter we've had, makes it sort of difficult to imagine anything working out really.  

It's been a little uncanny thus far?    I wanna hammer it harder but I can't, not based upon decades of experiencing ups and downs.  I remember a winter in the 1990s... right in the middle of a fantastic decade.  1994-1995.   Man, that year stood out as numero uno sore butt year of all time... Until 2011-2012.   But ...actually, both years had at least one decent event.  The one in '94-'95 was a February 5 coastal bomb.  Storm went from like 1004 mb to 970something in 10 minutes. It was too progressive to really be a big dawg, but there resulted 10 to 18" totals around the region, nonetheless. At peak strike, up at UML ... I recall est 1/16 mi vis snow/wind combo. 

It ended a remarkable streak of horrible luck though - in some senses, it was worse than this year, because first of all, that was the first snow of the season that really meant anything anywhere ... a bit later than our current plight at Jan 15. Secondly, much of the season the pattern was characterized as a 'low amplitude +PNA'.   It looked from orbit like we should be doing better but nothing would ever break right.  The persistent pattern just looked similar to this for 60 days prior to the coastal bomb...

...resulting in nothing... From orbit, that seems it shoulda been better.  Not sure if it was warmer than normal ...I don't recall. I just remember the pattern looking similar to that above, unrelentingly too flat to actually do much of anything.   Then this happened...