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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I look at this map and wonder how this doesn't redevelop off ORF.  It seem the James Bay high should be "higher" considering the confluence.  Oh well....

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

Need that little PV lobe-arm north of maine to be pressing a bit more. But that map isn’t that bad…euro did give the pike northward a good hit in that. I’m skeptical of that system though because the antecedent airmass is mostly crap. Classic loom to trend north. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Need that little PV lobe-arm north of maine to be pressing a bit more. But that map isn’t that bad…euro did give the pike northward a good hit in that. I’m skeptical of that system though because the antecedent airmass is mostly crap. Classic loom to trend north. 

If I lived anywhere in SNE.. and oh wait.. I do … I’d be looking for this time frame to be showing a DC to Philly hit if I wanted snow 

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9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Been out all day…is the storm Thurs night/Friday going to basically be rain?

That’s what I’d be hedging right now. Euro and GGEM show snow/sleet for pike crowd up to your area but GFS is mostly rain. I’d lean toward GFS right now. 
 

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If I lived anywhere in SNE.. and oh wait.. I do … I’d be looking for this time frame to be showing a DC to Philly hit if I wanted snow 

Yeah and I think that’s going to be the case over the next couple to three weeks too. Even if the more favorable pattern sets up, it’s an overrunning look like those 07-08 and 08-09 winters where were 4-5 day mid-Atlantic hits became New England SWFEs. 

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Need that little PV lobe-arm north of maine to be pressing a bit more. But that map isn’t that bad…euro did give the pike northward a good hit in that. I’m skeptical of that system though because the antecedent airmass is mostly crap. Classic loom to trend north. 

I'm not sure it is ( to me ) however, with the NAO diving and having the ballast of it hanging over the western limb of the domain.  In fact, it's almost back to JB... between there and the D. Straight.  This thing doesn't appear it has room to go N.   Looks like a Minnesota squeeze, but it may not even get that far N before it squishes east. 

We'll see, but I'm about to pull the trigger on a thread.   There's a decent up side, because it's riding over the top of a flat ridge, which means it will have a PWAT source hoisting over what cold there is - so long as the boundary stays along the Sound.  This year's debacle requires a 4-6" event be cited.

re cold... The Euro is substantially colder than the GFS in T and DP.  Meanwhile the GEF NAO mean leans on the operational version as too warm in the BL C-NNE.  So/if the Euro closes off a 2ndary between the eastern tip of L.I. and CC Bay, that'll tug S - speaking partial between depiction and imagining the correction.  

Waiting a couple cycles... thinking late Sunday if it still looks this way I put one out.  I also suspect the subtle progressive bias of the GFS might be damping the mid levels or wholesale the event, or both.   It's a battle between that concept and model magnification, admittedly.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s what I’d be hedging right now. Euro and GGEM show snow/sleet for pike crowd up to your area but GFS is mostly rain. I’d lean toward GFS right now. 
 

Yeah and I think that’s going to be the case over the next couple to three weeks too. Even if the more favorable pattern sets up, it’s an overrunning look like those 07-08 and 08-09 winters where were 4-5 day mid-Atlantic hits became New England SWFEs. 

If we had even a sniff of a + PNA , we’d be in so much better shape over the next month . But we don’t . So we are going to watch Dendy , Slot, and Freak passive aggressively talk about “up here” and look at pictures of cocks , daycare furniture , and picnic tables buried in snow . It is what it is 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We all need a good widespread month. Widespread seasons are tougher to do, but a good wintry 30 day region wide stretch would make this place a lot more fun. 

yeah, just something to cover the ground, let the kids do some sledding for a few days..... Not asking for much, 4-8 inches would be just fine. But one, 18-24 inch storm would be well appreciated...lol

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25 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

oldest kid just tested positive yesterday....should be an interesting couple weeks, need some snow to distract from things

I had it over New Years weekend, my BIL showed up for dinner sick with covid and infected 11 of us. I was in bed for two days and still feel a little off even though I haven't tested positive for a few days.

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51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s what I’d be hedging right now. Euro and GGEM show snow/sleet for pike crowd up to your area but GFS is mostly rain. I’d lean toward GFS right now. 
 

Yeah and I think that’s going to be the case over the next couple to three weeks too. Even if the more favorable pattern sets up, it’s an overrunning look like those 07-08 and 08-09 winters where were 4-5 day mid-Atlantic hits became New England SWFEs. 

Hook me up with 2007-2008.

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48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s what I’d be hedging right now. Euro and GGEM show snow/sleet for pike crowd up to your area but GFS is mostly rain. I’d lean toward GFS right now. 
 

Yeah and I think that’s going to be the case over the next couple to three weeks too. Even if the more favorable pattern sets up, it’s an overrunning look like those 07-08 and 08-09 winters where were 4-5 day mid-Atlantic hits became New England SWFEs. 

If things break right could be some sneaky decent skiing next Friday and Saturday. They could grab a foot between tomorrow and Monday and Thursday night next week if this break seemingly well.

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17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If things break right could be some sneaky decent skiing next Friday and Saturday. They could grab a foot between tomorrow and Monday and Thursday night next week if this break seemingly well.

I think I’d be cautiously optimistic for N Conway over the next 7-10 days. Still a risk thursday totally shits the bed up there but less likely than a couple days ago. 

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think I’d be cautiously optimistic for N Conway over the next 7-10 days. Still a risk thursday totally shits the bed up there but less likely than a couple days ago. 

Yeah, I’m definitely staying guarded about the Thursday Friday deal at this point. However, we seem to be past the point where most threats have completely gone in the toilet this winter, so maybe there is some positive upside there.

 

We went up north around this time in Jan 2012, and the winter was similar to this. Almost no snow until we reached Conway and the night we arrived they got a snow/sleet bomb of like 8-10” and the weekend ended up being really nice.

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44 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I’m definitely staying guarded about the Thursday Friday deal at this point. However, we seem to be past the point where most threats have completely gone in the toilet this winter, so maybe there is some positive upside there.

 

We went up north around this time in Jan 2012, and the winter was similar to this. Almost no snow until we reached Conway and the night we arrived they got a snow/sleet bomb of like 8-10” and the weekend ended up being really nice.

As long as these random OP runs continue to show a burial with frequent snows and a gradient finally lowering south… we’ll get there.

Wild how this winter seems to have such stark latitude gradient boundaries between the haves and have nots.  That 18z GFS run was closer to including more of the forum.

Just keep bringing the gradient south (in the means) needs to be the mantra.

2DB6FA48-BA58-40FE-83E6-96D7D9EF8242.thumb.png.a4286032e6de27b61bf072fb728368ee.png

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

As long as these random OP runs continue to show a burial with frequent snows and a gradient finally lowering south… we’ll get there.

Wild how this winter seems to have such stark latitude gradient boundaries between the haves and have nots.  That 18z GFS run was closer to including more of the forum.

Just keep bringing the gradient south (in the means) needs to be the mantra.

2DB6FA48-BA58-40FE-83E6-96D7D9EF8242.thumb.png.a4286032e6de27b61bf072fb728368ee.png

Love that look.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Love that look.

It’s definitely been a very north/south gradient, and that constant overrunning look every few days is a nice looking pattern.

Not going to bring any huge snows but those are consistent.  Not hoping for banding or mesoscale lift.  Just shove some H7 WAA lift and everyone gets the same widespread snow… provided you are north of the line.

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Wild how this winter seems to have such stark latitude gradient boundaries between the haves and have nots.  

I just drove down to Portland today. Its winter at my place meanwhile 15 miles south it might as well be SNE. Not uncommon around here but the contrast is night and day.


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4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Resting and regaining strength. Yesterday afternoon and Last night was rough, think I’m through the worst though. Thank you Luke. 

I'm just recovering myself. Such a strange bug. Felt like barely anything for a few days, then like a nasty head cold, then random symptoms like loss of taste, appetite, dizziness etc. Best wishes for a speedy recovery!

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I tested negative … 3 different times with 2 different rapid test kits.  I’m not sure those are entirely accurate. I’ve never had a head cold nag on undeterminably like this. It started on Dec 29 … still whoop coughing.  

If you had a booster or prior infection, your viral load might not be high enough to test positive.

31.3°F.  Todays 0.1" puts us at 7.3" for the season. 

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

I'm just recovering myself. Such a strange bug. Felt like barely anything for a few days, then like a nasty head cold, then random symptoms like loss of taste, appetite, dizziness etc. Best wishes for a speedy recovery!

It is bizarre. All sorts of different symptoms for different people. I lost my hearing in one ear for a couple weeks because my head was so clogged . And yes get well Wolfie.

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52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I tested negative … 3 different times with 2 different rapid test kits.  I’m not sure those are entirely accurate. I’ve never had a head cold nag on undeterminably like this. It started on Dec 29 … still whoop coughing.  

It's the vid. Those rapid tests suck. If you keep taking them you'll eventually turn up positive. The respiratory symptoms can last a long long time. 

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