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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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31 minutes ago, kdxken said:

If nobody knows, why do you get pissed when folks theorize that it's going to suck? 

I don’t get pissed Ken..I get pissed when they have an agenda.  If it looks bad by all means say it. If it looks ok then say that too.  That’s it.  No guarantees either way.  I think you’re confusing the things I say.   
 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the step down hopefully looks like the 12z GFS parade.  The heavy snow amounts have been just north of the St Lawrence many of these storms.

We get it to step down and it looks like this… just take the past two months and move it 150 miles south, ha.

02C874B3-8F08-43CF-A8A1-5F226562B8AF.thumb.png.23026811db552c02548094af8540e040.png

Congrats, PQI, Caribou and Fort kent ftw.

Not a bad time to be at Pit2 either.

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46 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Really? lol

 

2015.jpg

Yes Ken, Will did post saying December was a blast furnace, but January had cold. Thanks for pointing it out. I must have mixed up, the two months.   The bigger point was, even with the cold air there was still a massive cutter, and no snow. So does it really matter? No snow and the same talk as now was the point. 

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I think the radar looks pretty encouraging at this early juncture and low level temps look to be just cold enough for most areas west of the Canal. I share Tip's memory experience that these retrograding, decaying ocean lows with a NW displaced and unwrapping precip. field tend to underperform. But some of that failure was due to low level dry air, which we are not dealing with. So far I like the look on radar and satellite. I could see a band of .5" per hour developing tomorrow-tomorrow night. Could even envision a dual snow max with one inland near the Canal, and a second a little further west in a pivot zone. I'm probably biased by my rooting for someone to get a win.

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14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I will look up the 6 to 10 when I’m back in the house but if that represents a progression from the 6 to 10 and it’s a slow but steady march, then there’s a chance that it stays for a while with us once colder

Either way, on weekends there is no human input for the 6-10/8/14.  All machine generated.

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure you guys will ever pull off a month like that not having the ocean just to your east.

Maybe not in a month but we’ve had very big seasons before and with climo changes delivering bigger events in shorter periods of time, it would be sufficient for weenie wishes.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know Ray has the jack fetish eff everyone else, but it does kind of suck if one region gets it and the others are shut out. 

I often feel left out when eastern folks are getting snow but since my driveway is dry and yard is bare,  I’m OK with missing anything that’s not significant. 

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