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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was a distinct trend yesterday but it was fleeting. The only way to make that system snow is to time the confluence perfectly. That’s plausible but unlikely. 

Ahh ok. So the timing of the confluence is not what it was.  Makes sense.  Something would have to go right…and we know that can’t happen this season.  

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ahh ok. So the timing of the confluence is not what it was.  Makes sense. 

We really want a good antecedent airmass for these to produce. Airmass out ahead is pretty crappy. It’s cold enough for snow if you get perfect timing but counting on perfect timing is a fools errand most of the time. 
 

GGEM actually gives a lot of SNE a pelletfest with some snow at the end. 

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Disagree. This is an improvement on gefs and a pretty good look overall. You’re too focused on wc troughing and a continuation of the current pattern as a result. Cutter chance, sure, but this isn’t the same ole pattern. 

For the love of god please retire this phrase.

Times mentioned this winter: 8274
Times the look materialized: 0.5

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone does realize that a significant portion of SNE hasn't done badly in terms of snowfall over the past several years, right?

That stretch from the late 80s into the early 90s was worse on a regional scale.

Good point. We regress. We probably have at least several more years of penance to endure before we see good times again. 

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48 minutes ago, eduggs said:

For the love of god please retire this phrase.

Times mentioned this winter: 8274
Times the look materialized: 0.5

While I agree we’ve mostly verified crappy looks (exception was we did get a nice pattern for about 10-12 days in December but didn’t cash in outside of CNE/NNE), there’s no reason to go post-modern and say the extended doesn’t look good when it actually does. We can obviously discuss whether we think it will verify or not, but as shown, it’s a much colder look than we’ve had. 

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