January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[dryslot]

Have to say the CAD won out up here.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
907 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...UPDATED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...Maine...

...Aroostook County...
2 WSW Madawaska              22.0 in   0741 PM 01/13   Public
1 WSW Madawaska              21.3 in   0823 PM 01/13   Public
1 SE Wallagrass              21.0 in   0724 PM 01/13   Public
Saint Agatha                 21.0 in   0752 PM 01/13   Public
Madawaska                    21.0 in   0412 PM 01/13   Public
4 ESE Madawaska              20.5 in   0406 PM 01/13   Public
2 ENE Frenchville            20.0 in   0450 PM 01/13   Public
1 SE Frenchville             19.0 in   0521 PM 01/13   Public
1 WSW Winterville            18.0 in   0851 PM 01/13   Public
1 SSE Guerette               18.0 in   0411 PM 01/13   Public
Frenchville                  18.0 in   0413 PM 01/13   Public
Van Buren                    18.0 in   0420 PM 01/13   Public
3 SSW Loring                 17.0 in   0700 PM 01/13   Public
Grand Isle                   17.0 in   1120 AM 01/13   Public
2 NE Washburn                16.0 in   0823 PM 01/13   Public
2 N Washburn                 16.0 in   1030 AM 01/13   Public
3 W Stockholm                16.0 in   1100 AM 01/13   Public
New Sweden                   16.0 in   1230 PM 01/13   Public
1 E Limestone                16.0 in   0109 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
Fort Kent                    16.0 in   0119 PM 01/13   Public
5 SSE Lille                  16.0 in   0242 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
2 NW Guerette                16.0 in   0433 PM 01/13   Public
Dickey                       16.0 in   0450 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
2 S Connor                   15.5 in   0514 PM 01/13   NWS Employee
1 NW Allagash                15.0 in   0347 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
Limestone                    15.0 in   1228 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
Stockholm                    15.0 in   1245 PM 01/13   Public
1 SE Fort Kent               15.0 in   0415 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
4 SSW Van Buren              15.0 in   0435 PM 01/13   Public
Perham                       15.0 in   0442 PM 01/13   Public
2 SSE Castle Hill            14.0 in   0848 AM 01/13   NWS Employee
2 WSW Caribou                13.5 in   0200 PM 01/13   NWS Employee
1 N Caribou                  13.4 in   1215 PM 01/13   Official NWS Obs
1 W Ashland                  12.8 in   0915 AM 01/13
1 W Presque Isle             12.3 in   0921 AM 01/13   NWS Employee
2 NE Fort Fairfield          12.0 in   0858 AM 01/13   NWS Employee
Westfield                    12.0 in   1000 AM 01/13   Public
2 ENE Caribou                12.0 in   0436 PM 01/13   Public
Masardis                     12.0 in   0456 PM 01/13   Public
Winterville                  11.5 in   0710 AM 01/13   Public
1 S Limestone                11.5 in   0715 AM 01/13   Trained Spotter
2 SE Presque Isle            11.0 in   0830 AM 01/13   Public
1 SE Presque Isle            11.0 in   1000 AM 01/13   Trained Spotter
Caribou                      10.7 in   0745 AM 01/13   NWS Employee
3 SE Fort Fairfield          10.5 in   0349 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
Presque Isle                 10.0 in   0411 PM 01/13   Public
2 S Ashland                  10.0 in   0412 PM 01/13   Public
Monticello                   10.0 in   0417 PM 01/13   Public
Bridgewater                  9.0 in    0745 AM 01/13   Public
1 NNW Macwahoc               5.0 in    0524 AM 01/13   Trained Spotter

[UnitedWx]

Light snow in Westfield, starting to dust the ground. 31°

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Have to say the CAD won out up here.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
907 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...UPDATED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...Maine...

...Aroostook County...
2 WSW Madawaska              22.0 in   0741 PM 01/13   Public
1 WSW Madawaska              21.3 in   0823 PM 01/13   Public
1 SE Wallagrass              21.0 in   0724 PM 01/13   Public
Saint Agatha                 21.0 in   0752 PM 01/13   Public
Madawaska                    21.0 in   0412 PM 01/13   Public
4 ESE Madawaska              20.5 in   0406 PM 01/13   Public
2 ENE Frenchville            20.0 in   0450 PM 01/13   Public
1 SE Frenchville             19.0 in   0521 PM 01/13   Public
1 WSW Winterville            18.0 in   0851 PM 01/13   Public
1 SSE Guerette               18.0 in   0411 PM 01/13   Public
Frenchville                  18.0 in   0413 PM 01/13   Public
Van Buren                    18.0 in   0420 PM 01/13   Public
3 SSW Loring                 17.0 in   0700 PM 01/13   Public
Grand Isle                   17.0 in   1120 AM 01/13   Public
2 NE Washburn                16.0 in   0823 PM 01/13   Public
2 N Washburn                 16.0 in   1030 AM 01/13   Public
3 W Stockholm                16.0 in   1100 AM 01/13   Public
New Sweden                   16.0 in   1230 PM 01/13   Public
1 E Limestone                16.0 in   0109 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
Fort Kent                    16.0 in   0119 PM 01/13   Public
5 SSE Lille                  16.0 in   0242 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
2 NW Guerette                16.0 in   0433 PM 01/13   Public
Dickey                       16.0 in   0450 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
2 S Connor                   15.5 in   0514 PM 01/13   NWS Employee
1 NW Allagash                15.0 in   0347 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
Limestone                    15.0 in   1228 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
Stockholm                    15.0 in   1245 PM 01/13   Public
1 SE Fort Kent               15.0 in   0415 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
4 SSW Van Buren              15.0 in   0435 PM 01/13   Public
Perham                       15.0 in   0442 PM 01/13   Public
2 SSE Castle Hill            14.0 in   0848 AM 01/13   NWS Employee
2 WSW Caribou                13.5 in   0200 PM 01/13   NWS Employee
1 N Caribou                  13.4 in   1215 PM 01/13   Official NWS Obs
1 W Ashland                  12.8 in   0915 AM 01/13
1 W Presque Isle             12.3 in   0921 AM 01/13   NWS Employee
2 NE Fort Fairfield          12.0 in   0858 AM 01/13   NWS Employee
Westfield                    12.0 in   1000 AM 01/13   Public
2 ENE Caribou                12.0 in   0436 PM 01/13   Public
Masardis                     12.0 in   0456 PM 01/13   Public
Winterville                  11.5 in   0710 AM 01/13   Public
1 S Limestone                11.5 in   0715 AM 01/13   Trained Spotter
2 SE Presque Isle            11.0 in   0830 AM 01/13   Public
1 SE Presque Isle            11.0 in   1000 AM 01/13   Trained Spotter
Caribou                      10.7 in   0745 AM 01/13   NWS Employee
3 SE Fort Fairfield          10.5 in   0349 PM 01/13   Trained Spotter
Presque Isle                 10.0 in   0411 PM 01/13   Public
2 S Ashland                  10.0 in   0412 PM 01/13   Public
Monticello                   10.0 in   0417 PM 01/13   Public
Bridgewater                  9.0 in    0745 AM 01/13   Public
1 NNW Macwahoc               5.0 in    0524 AM 01/13   Trained Spotter

Onto the trails for you!

[moneypitmike]

All this excitement for a little glaze and flakes/dusting.  This reads like  mid-Atlantic thread.

[512high]

13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

All this excitement for a little glaze and flakes/dusting.  This reads like  mid-Atlantic thread.

It's all we got right now!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man.. if you like winter , please don’t look at the overnight EPS. Right back to fast Pacific flow and -PNA. Not great 

As I feared the last two days GEFS is the new king never waivered on not having the great pattern the eps had, eps finally fully caved. We still have our chances starting with two threats next week. Someone up north could cash in.  Expectations for now are rain at my latitude. Good luck up north. 

[Torch Tiger]

55 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Probably messy mixed events  some rainers and hopefully some snowers, not a snow pack look , but maybe we can hope for a huge icer

yeah, a major ice storm with lots of destruction and extended outages would turn this winter around

[qg_omega]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

As I feared the last two days GEFS is the new king never waivered on not having the great pattern the eps had, eps finally fully caved. We still have our chances starting with two threats next week. Someone up north could cash in.  Expectations for now are rain at my latitude. Good luck up north. 

Agreed, West has been cashing in and the pattern change just makes it even colder out west with still a very active pattern for them.  Lots of cutters continue on this side of the country

[Great Snow 1717]

39 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

All this excitement for a little glaze and flakes/dusting.  This reads like  mid-Atlantic an Atlanta thread.

FYP...

[moneypitmike]

27 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

As I feared the last two days GEFS is the new king never waivered on not having the great pattern the eps had, eps finally fully caved. We still have our chances starting with two threats next week. Someone up north could cash in.  Expectations for now are rain at my latitude. Good luck up north. 

Rain begets rain.  At least the reservoirs are doing well.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Agreed, West has been cashing in and the pattern change just makes it even colder out west with still a very active pattern for them.  Lots of cutters continue on this side of the country

Disagree. This is an improvement on gefs and a pretty good look overall. You’re too focused on wc troughing and a continuation of the current pattern as a result. Cutter chance, sure, but this isn’t the same ole pattern. 
 

[NW_of_GYX]

Halifax, NS warmer than Miami, FL right now. 

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Disagree. This is an improvement on gefs and a pretty good look overall. You’re too focused on wc troughing and a continuation of the current pattern as a result. Cutter chance, sure, but this isn’t the same ole pattern. 
 

Also swfe and miller b if the highs to the north hold.  Chances and risks

[Ginx snewx]

Rain freezing now 31⁰

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don’t count on a +PNA this winter. But that’s at least a look where there’s a lot of arctic cold around. I’m sure there will still be cutters but we can score well in that pattern too. Just hope we finally catch a couple breaks. 

I'm noticing the overnight EPS/GEFs means are converging on the unfortunate west biased +PNA distribution ...

     ... again.

So in short, that bold may be profound advice ( to put it dryly).  And I drop the mic like that because it did precisely this upon two other occasions in the Dec blocking era. It's not like there is less precedence to sore-up butts.

Longer winded op ed...  What is driving that? speculatively, it may be the models physically blending La Nina forcing, up under/in tandem with Asian forced redistribution ( a process taking place now).

You can see in the model runs how/why the Pac circulation mode changes, eventually lending to North American modulation....  Below is 00z EPS initialization, and the chart just below is 10 days later...

  

Over the course of these next 10 days, a time in which this pattern change is expected to take place... this all works out to the following look..

 

 

The thing is, the La Nina was noted as weakening ...not just speculated by me, but also CPC MJO monitoring published the statement in the weekly publication, last Monday. 

So what happens?  5 days later and the MJO is almost dead out of nowhere, after it was impressive through phase 8-1-2 for over a week's worth of consistent RMM guidance.  It's just pulled the greatest con job from that particular index I've seen.  Or, this is typical for modeling pattern changes and getting strange results. I don't know though.. this above looks like a compromise between Nina and Asian forcing, though.

Seeing these recent en mass ensemble trends, cross-guidance, putting us back in the west biased +PNA distribution - I don't know if means the same series/redux over Dec, but... that era failed pretty horribly to deliver, when for 3 solid weeks we were immersed in a hemisphere situated with a +PNA(-AO/-NAO).   Warmer than normal for the trip, too.  We had the one arctic outbreak led by the Buffalo bomb, but it almost failed to get in here - and the arctic outbreak it self?  It was colder in the hyperbole meme-machine of mass media. They kept marketing it as "the coldest Christmas" ever - phrases to that affect.. I'm like, "Wtf does that mean.  Who cares? Xmas is an arbitrary date along the vagaries of wind and weather"  Not to disrespect 44 deaths attributed to the Buffalo event.  Deaths can happen in a dense fog in an Interstate pile-up.

 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Disagree. This is an improvement on gefs and a pretty good look overall. You’re too focused on wc troughing and a continuation of the current pattern as a result. Cutter chance, sure, but this isn’t the same ole pattern. 
 

It’s a much colder pattern in the northeast than we’ve had. There is still a risk we keep getting screwed on cutters but at least there’s a bit more wiggle room on imperfect tracks in a pattern like that. 
 

Just keep an eye on where the PV goes in future guidance. If we start seeing go back into western Canada, then I’ll agree with noreaster27 that it’s the same old look, but if the PV ends up over Hudson Bay or adjacent Quebec, that’s a lot different. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s a much colder pattern in the northeast than we’ve had. There is still a risk we keep getting screwed on cutters but at least there’s a bit more wiggle room on imperfect tracks in a pattern like that. 
 

Just keep an eye on where the PV goes in future guidance. If we start seeing go back into western Canada, then I’ll agree with noreaster27 that it’s the same old look, but if the PV ends up over Hudson Bay or adjacent Quebec, that’s a lot different. 

If I’m remembering correctly, I believe the PNA was negative during the February ’13 blizzard.  But obviously things worked out like you explained. I remember folks were worried about the storm not working out, due to that.
 

Also in that GEFS depiction above, the TPV is centered just to the east of Hudson Bay, that’s a good spot for it I’d imagine for us. Hopefully that can hold. 

[qg_omega]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s a much colder pattern in the northeast than we’ve had. There is still a risk we keep getting screwed on cutters but at least there’s a bit more wiggle room on imperfect tracks in a pattern like that. 
 

Just keep an eye on where the PV goes in future guidance. If we start seeing go back into western Canada, then I’ll agree with noreaster27 that it’s the same old look, but if the PV ends up over Hudson Bay or adjacent Quebec, that’s a lot different. 

Of course Will, but think it drills into the WC

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs tried to tell ‘em 

[Typhoon Tip]

But ... in any case, there are couple of events to monitor in guidance that are not really a part of or immersed in the d(pattern) consideration.

19/20 and ... circa 23/24.

...hard not to assume lesser returns on investment, given the road and unrelenting persistence to do so.. The 18z run of the GEFs mean was probably the best of the EPS/GEFs last 3 cycles, which unfortunately ...nods to the assumption.  But we'll see

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

But ... in any case, there are couple of events to monitor in guidance that are not really a part of or immersed in the d(pattern) consideration.

19/20 and ... circa 23/24.

...hard not to assume lesser returns on investment, given the road and unrelenting persistence to do so.. The 18z run of the GEFs mean was probably the best of the EPS/GEFs last 3 cycles, which unfortunately ...nods to the assumption.  But we'll see

I think we’re due for something to break our way, I mean the area averages 50-60”+ for a reason. It’s unlikely we keep swinging and missing. I’m even ok with a foul tip or weak grounder to second at this point. 

[ineedsnow]

12z Icon is nice north of the pike for next week

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I think we’re due for something to break our way, I mean the area averages 50-60”+ for a reason. It’s unlikely we keep swinging and missing. I’m even ok with a foul tip or weak grounder to second at this point. 

yeah..I dunno. I'm starting to internally materialize miss-givings about the climate use in the discussion.  Those 50-60" might be tainted by two aspects;I start to wonder if they belie the 'real' climate?  In other words, that 'reason' is defaulting more and more false in this speculation.

We are getting 'spike' phenomenon event/eras, more frequently than we used to ... along a mean of more abysmal productivity years.  Those spikes are huge, too.  Like the increase in the 12+" storm frequency.  Or 2015 ..etc.   Those skew the averages higher, perhaps - speculation part - more than the "mode of expectation" should really be.  You could almost parse out, 'our climate suggests lowering seasonal snow totals, with offset years being much larger still a possibility'  - something like this. Which really requires a deeper qualitative analysis than using the 30 year mean of snow... etc... If that were true, objectively it doesn't make a lot of sense to think we're eventually entitled to 50-60" years

The other aspect... the climate's been changing fast enough that 30 years may also weight the average falsely, anyway, regardless of 'spikes skewing means as speculation'.   I've heard these recent years ...well, basically since 2015, sort of compared to the 1980s?  Ah, having lived that decade in full sentient awareness, I can tell you this is different. We are doing so now, when 7 out of 10 or even 8 out of 10 months are routinely above normal temperatures... Regardless of ENSO this, or polar index that.  The daily cents in the till, are adding up more proportional to seasonal dollars. 

Mm...sorry, that barks CC having a hand in matters. 

I'm starting to wonder if at planetary scales, we might get around to seeing a year that leaps... where its not only the warmest in history, but it does so by more than 10th of a decimal. Just more speculation.  

I just wonder if our snow climate bands are not really what they presently are.

[CoastalWx]

Let’s cut next week. 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s cut next week. 

FU 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s cut next week. 

I don’t have any faith in that system to be a snower for us. Pure gravy if it is. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t have any faith in that system to be a snower for us. Pure gravy if it is. 

Gfs will be right. Garbage airmass ahead of it. Rains to Maines. What else is new.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t have any faith in that system to be a snower for us. Pure gravy if it is. 

You kind of sounded a lil more optimistic yesterday about that system next week Will…?  

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs will be right. Garbage airmass ahead of it. Rains to Maines. What else is new.

Well…the grass is greener now than this past summer. It can use the water. Some sun and 50 midweek, let’s get things going. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You kind of sounded a lil more optimistic yesterday about that system next week Will…?  

There was a distinct trend yesterday but it was fleeting. The only way to make that system snow is to time the confluence perfectly. That’s plausible but unlikely.