January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Here’s the Pacific driving the bus. Tblizz in the back. 

 

 

At least la nina will finally relinquish its grip.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah…. Run for cover if the euro is right. Ugly

Uh ? Euro is also close .

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? Euro is also close .

They mean the overall pattern.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Hopefully nobody freaks out at this comment but with the driving -PNA being a dominant feature so far , would it be that surprising for a reshuffling of pacific to present an even uglier pig for mid January or can these things really not be gauged with probabilities? Does the tropical forcing that we see now and have seen show any short term indications of favoring thad sort of development or is a long shot . 
 

By January 10 we can score with so many different type of setups and I’m hoping we can eliminate the ugliest of them but trying to ask this question without the worriers having a total meltdown . The weather is going to do what it wants .

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Hopefully nobody freaks out at this comment but with the driving -PNA being a dominant feature so far , would it be that surprising for a reshuffling of pacific to present an even uglier pig for mid January or can these things really not be gauged with probabilities? Does the tropical forcing that we see now and have seen show any short term indications of favoring thad sort of development or is a long shot . 
 

By January 10 we can score with so many different type of setups and I’m hoping we can eliminate the ugliest of them but trying to ask this question without the worriers having a total meltdown . The weather is going to do what it wants .

I would be surprised, yes.

I do not expect anything more than a transient pig, nor do I expect an RNA month of January.

[DJln491]

did the GFS run stall?  Must be thinking of a way to screw us.

[Damage In Tolland]

No below freezing temps straight thru day 10. You’ll start to see some of the early bulbs coming up next week 

 

[Heisy]

12z cmc comes close to pulling a 6z GFS scenario. A little bit more energy in follow up wave and could have been a good run

As is close enough where this may be a legit threat models picking up



.

[Heisy]

did the GFS run stall?  Must be thinking of a way to screw us.

It did, but it’s back to running.

Looks like due to the fast pac flow there’s a few short waves to keep an eye on. The lead wave heads towards lakes and kind of phases with TPV, then the question is do next set of shortwaves come east as one low or do we separation ala 6z GFS/12z cmc where front clears and then a third shortwave is given room to redevelop. If that second shortwave comes east as one low there won’t be cold air available. Need to kind of beat down the ridge and create confluence to have a shot here.


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[Typhoon Tip]

ICON's a nasty ice storm for the Jan 5-7th signal...  It was a more impressive 00z solution than the other guidance.

I'm still not completely sold on this models usefulness one way or the other, but I see it listed out on the web and some times mentioned in AFDs in NWS and so forth.  It must get some street cred?      who knows.

But, the signal is still real folks.  It's not that far away anymore, either.   I'd like the see the GEFs come around. The EPS has some vague look at a coastal.

We're not in threat mode.  This is still signal eval.   I don't think we're going be sending 582 heights up to NJ this whole month though, so long as the numerical PNA index sustains, albeit modestly, a positive SD.   This in fact appears more related to hemispheric 'elasticity' in the rather abrupt/recent disappearance of the NAO blocking over the western limb. It is in fact a strong positive mode... but is presently ( I believe) over-compensated and will settle back.  Probably when/as this thing comes along next week is resonant timing. 

[WinterWolf]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No below freezing temps straight thru day 10. You’ll start to see some of the early bulbs coming up next week 

 

Take a break bro. It’s a good thing.  We already know the next week to 10 days is mild…nothing new there.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs is going to have a storm, looks like it might be warm (shocker) though.

[Heisy]

Gfs is going to have a storm, looks like it might be warm (shocker) though.

Yeah because the trough comes east as basically one shortwave. Need wave separation for a shot at something significant


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[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Take a break bro. It’s a good thing.  We already know the next week to 10 days is mild…nothing new there.  

No break. Just looking for a needle in a long , tall haystack of winter 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs is going to have a storm, looks like it might be warm (shocker) though.

That storm was always supposed to be warm.

[MJO812]

Warmup doesn't look like a big deal anymore .

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Yeah because the trough comes east as basically one shortwave. Need wave separation for a shot at something significant


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Cmc is close 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs is going to have a storm, looks like it might be warm (shocker) though.

Ends up a weak POS with rain for SNE

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, MJO812 said:

That storm was always supposed to be warm.

If it’s going to look like the 12z gfs, I’d rather it slide to Bermuda, and I mean that.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Yeah because the trough comes east as basically one shortwave. Need wave separation for a shot at something significant


.

At least there's a signal there. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If it’s going to look like the 12z gfs, I’d rather it slide to Bermuda, and I mean that.

It might do just that…9-10 days out everything in flux. I’m with ya if it’s gonna be weak/warm…we don’t need it. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

At least there's a signal there. 

Normally I’d agree, but there is a complete lack of cold air anywhere near this system. The majority of guidance that has shown a system has been very warm.

 

Sucks that we’re dealing with spring like puke during the first week of January 

[Great Snow 1717]

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No below freezing temps straight thru day 10. You’ll start to see some of the early bulbs coming up next week 

 

Noyes has never been onboard the "winter train" for the winter of 22-23.  He will give his January forecast either tomorrow or on Jan 2nd.  

[Cyclone-68]

Dave Epstein calling for low 60’s next Wednesday 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Dave Epstein calling for low 60’s next Wednesday 

Several on air mets has mentioned the possibility of 1-2 days of a high 60+
 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, DJln491 said:

did the GFS run stall?  Must be thinking of a way to screw us.

Identified - NCEP is currently experiencing dissemination delays of 15-30 minutes for the 12z GFS Operational model.

We will process the data immediately as it becomes available at NCEP.
Dec 29, 2022 - 11:20 EST

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Several on air mets has mentioned the possibility of 1-2 days of a high 60+
 

I hope so....if the pattern sucks for snow with no pack to preserve, then it may as well be nice. Holidays are gone, so no need to feel festive.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hope so....if the pattern sucks for snow with no pack to preserve, then it may as well be nice.

This. 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hope so....if the pattern sucks for snow with no pack to preserve, then it may as well be nice. Holidays are gone, so no need to feel festive.

I'll take cold and dry over 60+ in January...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'll take cold and dry over 60+ in January...

Yea, not me....nothing worse than cold and boring afoot parched and barren earth.