weathafella Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is prob gonna bo boom for the 1/22-23 event. Maybe we can get an 18 year anniversary (can't believe that was 18 years ago, lol) Yup-we bury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've actually been noticing across all guidance actually. Lately the mid and upper air charts don't lend to very good sfc appeals - but then the surface charts have snow chances. I think the pattern change is real...and the models are just fighting desperately to avoid admitting it. hahaha... No but that's not that uncommon with southern height walls while cold loads to the N. I've seen 10" of snow fall along Rt 2 with 70 F NJ in March. So long as we're in a spring pattern seemingly eternally.. heh There's definitely a change in the air although it may not seem like it. Pretty stout PNA spike is shown too. Getting into good climo territory as well. 22/23 looks interesting and maybe something beyond as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yup, A big ole dump of snow into the same areas getting some today. Paging the pope 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 wow...what a bomb on that 22nd/23rd ...potentially. That thing bumps east at mid levels by 200 or so miles and that defines the season off any such correction/solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's definitely a change in the air although it may not seem like it. Pretty stout PNA spike is shown too. Getting into good climo territory as well. Peak snow climo and no big pig , gotta like northern Maine in a active set up like that Even in SNE it’s very hard to not get decent snows just away from ocean between Jan 10 and Feb 10 in an active pattern with no big pig in AK. Probably will get there Ugly ..with plenty of cutters and mixed events mixed in with some all snow systems . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I shockingly saw two people ice fishing on a pond near me today. First time all “winter” and they chose a day in the 50s Not too bright. A little better up here. Last Saturday I fished Flying Pond (N. Kennebec County) and found 7-8", though I couldn't get onto the island next to where I cut the holes, thanks to the 12/23 deluge that still has the pond high with thin (or no) ice on some of the edges. Also found 3 bass of +/-18" and lost 2 others that felt about the same. Might find 9-10" if I go out next week, thanks to 22/-3 and 20/7 for the 11th and 12th. Nicer than cranking my 60-year-old auger thru 20" or more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yup-we bury. I have to fly out to DC for work the 23rd. Return the 25th. Short trip, so that may be perfect timing to bag it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Suns broken out and 55 now in Nashua 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 55 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t get the GEFS angst. Sure we risk cutters but we may also cash in. Canada is frigid and the pattern should be active. I’ll take the risk over the dogshit we’ve been in for the past few weeks… I said the same. A little less diggy in the baja would help though. I’m not buying it fully though, a compromise between it and eps is more likely. I think we step down/away from WC troughing gradually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Suns broken out and 55 now in Nashua Congrats on the pope blessing you properly. We’re socked in misery clouds and drizzle all day here without a glimmer of the holy spirit. Not gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Still some pretty big differences between EPS and GEFS in the long range....heck, even decent differences in the D8-9 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Still some pretty big differences between EPS and GEFS in the long range....heck, even decent differences in the D8-9 range. Pull that M-efr down to Hudson bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 46 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Paging the pope Even with the pacific skunked, a combination of weak shortwave plus losing the big +NAO is all you need to see things work in Berks/ NNE this time of year; and that's what we get. With this setup though, SNE very vulnerable to warm sectoring whenever these shortwaves tap the Arctic early, Ohio river valley -->west. I fear this more conducive setup to cold/snow may last only a week or so, though. More noise than shift in prevailing large-scale pattern. This upcoming week it's shades of the MJO in phase 1/8 (it would show its face, however faintly) with the weekend coastal wanting to evolve into a block --> at least capping the ridging in the east. We could go right back to a more hostile pattern after this week. My leaning is we do. So will need to reassess a lot in the second half of this week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is prob gonna bo boom for the 1/22-23 event. Maybe we can get an 18 year anniversary (can't believe that was 18 years ago, lol) ick. i hated that storm up here. I was so hyped up about it thinking it would get us, but what we got was nothing compared to AEMATT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 We'll take the EPS. But take the GEFS next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 13 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Even with the pacific skunked, a combination of weak shortwave plus losing the big +NAO is all you need to see things work in Berks/ NNE this time of year; and that's what we get. With this setup though, SNE very vulnerable to warm sectoring whenever these shortwaves tap the Arctic early, Ohio river valley -->west. I fear this more conducive setup to cold/snow may last only a week or so, though. More noise than shift in prevailing large-scale pattern. This upcoming week it's shades of the MJO in phase 1/8 (it would show its face, however faintly) with the weekend coastal wanting to evolve into a block --> at least capping the ridging in the east. We could go right back to a more hostile pattern after this week. My leaning is we do. So will need to reassess a lot in the second half of this week. That ridge may retro and the PNA tank when that happens. Hopefully more than a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: ick. i hated that storm up here. I was so hyped up about it thinking it would get us, but what we got was nothing compared to AEMATT Ya that January 05 event shafted us here…sucked. 8-10” of Arctic sand. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 17 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Even with the pacific skunked, a combination of weak shortwave plus losing the big +NAO is all you need to see things work in Berks/ NNE this time of year; and that's what we get. With this setup though, SNE very vulnerable to warm sectoring whenever these shortwaves tap the Arctic early, Ohio river valley -->west. I fear this more conducive setup to cold/snow may last only a week or so, though. More noise than shift in prevailing large-scale pattern. This upcoming week it's shades of the MJO in phase 1/8 (it would show its face, however faintly) with the weekend coastal wanting to evolve into a block --> at least capping the ridging in the east. We could go right back to a more hostile pattern after this week. My leaning is we do. So will need to reassess a lot in the second half of this week. So another one is saying winter is over ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: So another one is saying winter is over ? Can it be over if it never started? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is prob gonna bo boom for the 1/22-23 event. Maybe we can get an 18 year anniversary (can't believe that was 18 years ago, lol) HOF'er for EMA. It's historically a prolific week. That specific 12z Euro run left some greater potential on the table. Vague EPS signal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That ridge may retro and the PNA tank when that happens. Hopefully more than a week. If you stuff the PV just east of Hudson bay like on the ensembles, then you end up with a really nice pattern even with the ridge retrograding. That's a really cold look....obviously cutters are still a threat (we had 1 or 2 in Jan '94 even)....but I'll take my chances with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: If you stuff the PV just east of Hudson bay like on the ensembles, then you end up with a really nice pattern even with the ridge retrograding. That's a really cold look....obviously cutters are still a threat (we had 1 or 2 in Jan '94 even)....but I'll take my chances with that look. As long as we can get some ridging into Greenland, I think we'd be ok for some time anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 God I hope so ... I'm just about out of patience with this winter. I can be objective about modeling and trends, and telecons and ferreting out signals and so forth - it's not that. But if these methods and verification alike keep up with this, I'd be more than happy to put it all behind us at an unusual early exit date. Dust off and move on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As long as we can get some ridging into Greenland, I think we'd be ok for some time anyways. It’s just nice to maybe get a pattern where we can track stuff. Hell we are already tracking a couple potential threats. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Congrats on the pope blessing you properly. We’re socked in misery clouds and drizzle all day here without a glimmer of the holy spirit. Not gorgeous. Sun lasted 90 mins now we have the usual January drizzle and still 55 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As long as we can get some ridging into Greenland, I think we'd be ok for some time anyways. Whatever you do, just be careful 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Whatever you do, just be careful Trust me, this winter it's so true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Ya that January 05 event shafted us here…sucked. 8-10” of Arctic sand. Going through an ugly season like this while remaining patient and taking it all in stride, to eventually endure another sema hecs would be the final straw of a painful 12 years of hecs whiffs. A permanent check out. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Going through an ugly season like this while remaining patient and taking it all in stride, to eventually endure another sema hecs would be the final straw of a painful 12 years of hecs whiffs. A permanent check out. Ya I think thats the last thing anybody wants to see…had enough of that BS. Time to shift things around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Going through an ugly season like this while remaining patient and taking it all in stride, to eventually endure another sema hecs would be the final straw of a painful 12 years of hecs whiffs. A permanent check out. Lets not get hyperbolic....after a summer GTG on the golf course with me, Bob, and a few edibles with Ginxy meeting us for a beer afterwards, I will enamor you with tales of Feb 5, 2001 to Jan 12, 2011 to even Feb 1983 if we have to stoop to such levels.... you'll be ready to run through a wall again searching for that W CT HECS. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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