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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It seems noticeable during the day. Back in December they were 34 with -SN when everyone around them was below 32, even Logan. 55-60 will do it for today and was expected. Not sure why people are surprised.

I think Pope and ginxy got into an argument about it....not sure where they were talking though....NH isn't seeing 60 but SE MA could.

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12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Thanks, cmc was a pretty robust snow event 

1/19-20 is looking a bit better for NNE imho....there weren't as many solutions ripping the snow line well into Quebec....many kept NNE mostly snow, so we'll see if that trend continues today.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

One intriguing thing about Sunday is that it could be longer duration. If that stuff backs in just enough, I could see it lingering for a bit.  Still unsure what to make of it.

Yeah I'm not confident anyone gets a lot (as in more than 3 or 4 inches), but there is a small probability this busts in the positive direction if we sit a CCB/deform over some areas for 12-18 hours.....always tough when there is kind of a mature ULL, but there are areas of good fronto that try to get going, so we'll see.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm not confident anyone gets a lot (as in more than 3 or 4 inches), but there is a small probability this busts in the positive direction if we sit a CCB/deform over some areas for 12-18 hours.....always tough when there is kind of a mature ULL, but there are areas of good fronto that try to get going, so we'll see.

That's what it looks like to me.  Fronto band

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Great euro run at 6z for you guys out east. 

Not that anyone asked but I'm on the fence with this early week thing. 

I have too many experiences in my decades as a troubled, too oft lovelorn partner of weather to allow much excitement for any "western fringe" phenomenon.  That's the canvas I start with.

But it's not just tainted by personal experience.  There is verified examples.  The Euro is not unprecedented for proven a west over-zealous solution.  It duped NWS back in 2014 I think it was, with an intensifying hook and latter scenario.  With just 36 hours preceding ... it puts out a model run backing 18" snow totals and 55 mph wind gust clear to EWR, sending them scrambling. Blizzard warnings, to cut-ins by the Mayor of NYC warning civility ...

1" of dust.

It also has an attenuating amplitude bias, moving events from mid range into short term that is perhaps too subtle most of the time to even notice. But we're dealing with 10s of miles delineating not much to a band of light to moderate snow and/or sleety rain..  heh.  It might make a difference at that scale of precision.

The NAM?  I've been telling this forum community that it's got a NW bias between 48 and 84 hours for years..

I did notice the 06Z GFS tickled back west a little more.  It's a fair enough statement that there are examples of backing events, too.  It seems they happen, but the western extent ?  That specific handling aspect is like IVT snow bands in the mid range - seldom does that ever work out as modeled. 

It'll be interesting... As the adage goes, there's nothing else to feed the d-drip ( not an adage but it should be )..

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