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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, this.
 

That’s why when I went at him yesterday, my point was it’s a complete agenda.  If one is being objective, then he wouldn’t have said what he said.  So let’s cherry pick models that support you, when a whole slew do not. This is not rational thinking for a weather forum.  

You have 11k posts, I wouldn’t call that “rational” but you do you.  I’m putting out forecasts and have crushed it this year so far to a tee.  You seem to like personal attacks while not putting out any forecasts or original thoughts.  You can go back on my posts and actually read my thoughts and forecasts but alas you resort to personal attacks.  It’s sad to see.

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Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Don't let him suck you in. He thrives on it. He thrives on working people up. He used to work me up too, but not anymore. I told him I'm glad he's part of this crew. Cuz it will turn around come and if not this your next year. And I wonder if you'll still be on here. Trolling. Every forum needs a troll, so we can let him be our resident troll. 

I’m zero sucked in nor worked up. Hands like balloons. 

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9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Don't let him suck you in. He thrives on it. He thrives on working people up. He used to work me up too, but not anymore. I told him I'm glad he's part of this crew. Cuz it will turn around come and if not this your next year. And I wonder if you'll still be on here. Trolling. Every forum needs a troll, so we can let him be our resident troll. 

I like trolls. They keep the underside of bridges clean. But to be fair, he hasn't been wrong. 

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10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

You have 11k posts, I wouldn’t call that “rational” but you do you.  I’m putting out forecasts and have crushed it this year so far to a tee.  You seem to like personal attacks while not putting out any forecasts or original thoughts.  You can go back on my posts and actually read my thoughts and forecasts but alas you resort to personal attacks.  It’s sad to see.

All trolling aside, what are your thoughts on the rest of the winter? Do you think we see a decent stretch, or are we talking worst ever?

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5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

You have 11k posts, I wouldn’t call that “rational” but you do you.  I’m putting out forecasts and have crushed it this year so far to a tee.  You seem to like personal attacks while not putting out any forecasts or original thoughts.  You can go back on my posts and actually read my thoughts and forecasts but alas you resort to personal attacks.  It’s sad to see.

Nothing wrong with putting out forecasts, I certainly don’t fault you or anybody for that. But you’re cherry picking and denying the majority of other guidance. That’s the point. Maybe you’ll be completely correct? And nothing wrong with standing by your position, but one needs to admit that there is other guidance out there that shows the opposite of what you’re forecasting.

And on top of it, you poke fun at folks that show multiple pieces of guidance that shows something different than your call, and is closer in, than what you show. So that’s where the agenda driven ideas stem from. 
 

We have 19 days left to this month(that’s almost 3 weeks)…a lot looks to change, that’s all anybody is saying. If it doesn’t you can claim victory. But until then we see what happens. 

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All trolling aside, what are your thoughts on the rest of the winter? Do you think we see a decent stretch, or are we talking worst ever?

I hate the PAC SST anomalies and MOJ 8 and 1 were forecasted to be very strong and busted very badly.  

image.jpeg.fcf13367356b3668a121d4c4f8cf53d7.jpeg

I am very hesitant to go against the persistent trough in the west and any SSW may send the PV into the west coast.  I was at +8 for January (forecasted in early December) and while I may be too warm in a spot or two, overall it will be on point.  I don’t think that degree of warmth will sustain and I do see the possibility of transient cold shots.  However I don’t see the end to the cold out west, even if they get drier.  I would favor north of I90 for any SWFE snow event but each storm will have rain/snow lines and trend warm as we get closer.  March will likely end up the best shot but I hate March snow events.  Overall, a very frustrating east coast winter but historic west coast.

 

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3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I hate the PAC SST anomalies and MOJ 8 and 1 were forecasted to be very strong and busted very badly.  

image.jpeg.fcf13367356b3668a121d4c4f8cf53d7.jpeg

I am very hesitant to go against the persistent trough in the west and any SSW may send the PV into the west coast.  I was at +8 for January (forecasted in early December) and while I may be too warm in a spot or two, overall it will be on point.  I don’t think they will sustain and I do see the possibility of transient cold shots.  However I don’t see the end to the cold out west, even if they get drier.  I would favor both of I90 for any SWFE snow event but each storm will have rain/snow lines and trend warm as we get closer.  March will likely end up the best shot but I hate March snow events.  Overall, a very frustrating east coast winter but historic west coast.

 

Good call on January.

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I hate the PAC SST anomalies and MOJ 8 and 1 were forecasted to be very strong and busted very badly.  

image.jpeg.fcf13367356b3668a121d4c4f8cf53d7.jpeg

I am very hesitant to go against the persistent trough in the west and any SSW may send the PV into the west coast.  I was at +8 for January (forecasted in early December) and while I may be too warm in a spot or two, overall it will be on point.  I don’t think that degree of warmth will sustain and I do see the possibility of transient cold shots.  However I don’t see the end to the cold out west, even if they get drier.  I would favor north of I90 for any SWFE snow event but each storm will have rain/snow lines and trend warm as we get closer.  March will likely end up the best shot but I hate March snow events.  Overall, a very frustrating east coast winter but historic west coast.

 

Where do you post your forecast? Nice to see you finally post some good content and reasoning. 

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4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I hate the PAC SST anomalies and MOJ 8 and 1 were forecasted to be very strong and busted very badly.  

image.jpeg.fcf13367356b3668a121d4c4f8cf53d7.jpeg

I am very hesitant to go against the persistent trough in the west and any SSW may send the PV into the west coast.  I was at +8 for January (forecasted in early December) and while I may be too warm in a spot or two, overall it will be on point.  I don’t think that degree of warmth will sustain and I do see the possibility of transient cold shots.  However I don’t see the end to the cold out west, even if they get drier.  I would favor north of I90 for any SWFE snow event but each storm will have rain/snow lines and trend warm as we get closer.  March will likely end up the best shot but I hate March snow events.  Overall, a very frustrating east coast winter but historic west coast.

 

Honestly, that was an actual fair forecast. What you're saying totally makes sense, and all joking aside, not trolling.

Nice to see you actually explain why you feel the way you do and you're not just trying to set people off. Appreciate it

 

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6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I hate the PAC SST anomalies and MOJ 8 and 1 were forecasted to be very strong and busted very badly.  

image.jpeg.fcf13367356b3668a121d4c4f8cf53d7.jpeg

I am very hesitant to go against the persistent trough in the west and any SSW may send the PV into the west coast.  I was at +8 for January (forecasted in early December) and while I may be too warm in a spot or two, overall it will be on point.  I don’t think that degree of warmth will sustain and I do see the possibility of transient cold shots.  However I don’t see the end to the cold out west, even if they get drier.  I would favor north of I90 for any SWFE snow event but each storm will have rain/snow lines and trend warm as we get closer.  March will likely end up the best shot but I hate March snow events.  Overall, a very frustrating east coast winter but historic west coast.

 

Great post. Now That’s more like it.  That’s all anybody was asking. Great reasoning. 

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15 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I hate the PAC SST anomalies and MOJ 8 and 1 were forecasted to be very strong and busted very badly.  

image.jpeg.fcf13367356b3668a121d4c4f8cf53d7.jpeg

I am very hesitant to go against the persistent trough in the west and any SSW may send the PV into the west coast.  I was at +8 for January (forecasted in early December) and while I may be too warm in a spot or two, overall it will be on point.  I don’t think that degree of warmth will sustain and I do see the possibility of transient cold shots.  However I don’t see the end to the cold out west, even if they get drier.  I would favor north of I90 for any SWFE snow event but each storm will have rain/snow lines and trend warm as we get closer.  March will likely end up the best shot but I hate March snow events.  Overall, a very frustrating east coast winter but historic west coast.

 

Wow best post ever

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13 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Where's cpickles, winter reminds me of stock market right now around CPI. Everyone placing bets which way its gonna go. Mostly bears. I'm buying calls. Snow short squeeze. 

Melt up in market lately . Psychologically most weenies are no longer in denial about the winter , some despair ..so usually in markets that’s a good time to buy ...so you wanna make a bet on Boston odds to finish with 35” or greater . 50$ 

 

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1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Don't let him suck you in. He thrives on it. He thrives on working people up. He used to work me up too, but not anymore. I told him I'm glad he's part of this crew. Cuz it will turn around come and if not this your next year. And I wonder if you'll still be on here. Trolling. Every forum needs a troll, so we can let him be our resident troll. 

Or we can just hit ignore. It's fuccing annoying when someone has something pertinent to say, and then ruins it by disregarding other guidance... or simple questions as to why they believe what they believe 

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