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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’ve been quiet about the long range. But I feel like gfs keeps on trending worse and worse with trough in west. I have a bad feeling about the GEFS being right . 
 

 

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It’s been better than the EPS this winter, so not sure why it would be any different. Keep on kicking the can.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s early for that, but I don’t care what model it is, these situations are tough to work out in your favor. 

It’s also like a difference of 30 miles that makes a big sensible wx impact. So if this ends up grazing the cape, I don’t think I’d call out the euro for shitting it’s pant. Now if it stays solidly offshore I would. 

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12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’ve been quiet about the long range. But I feel like gfs keeps on trending worse and worse with trough in west. I have a bad feeling about the GEFS being right . 
 

 

DF119380-983C-4A91-8CF9-55E1423FDF48.png

Unrelenting - PNA all winter . That’s what has ratted this winter. I’ve seen EPO talk, but I don’t believe that’s it. Fast Pacific jet and trough in west destroys EC winters . 

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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We joke about that all the time, but the realty is, that a delayed winter pattern,  may show up in the spring.   I pray for warm and dry but I fully expect a horrific and cold damp May.  

 

it's been feeling like late Mar early April since just after Christmas, at this point I'm kinda glad I'm going to Soflo, at least the weather there is unrelentingly predictable...they get maybe two or three colder days then back to 80s...if I'm going to be in rain, I'll prefer Florida rain...

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3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Trough in the Baja is never good. Obviously we can get lucky and be on the snowy side or a gradient with plenty of cold to tap into, but with the way this season goes that’s most likely congrats north of us. 

Maybe but if this is the ‘worst’ goalpost, I’ll take our chances with the look in canada. Looks overrunning and swfe-ish.. ?

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Lmao…one stupid run of the 18z Euro, and the shit box system that had a very low chance of impact anyway, and this place is off the rails again.  Everything sucks, and any pattern change is now in deep trouble.  What a bunch of whack jobs. 

Why the confused Kev?  We’re in a shit pattern, we all know that. Let’s see where it goes? Maybe it fails? Maybe it doesn’t? Nothing to be confused about. That’s all there is to it.  

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