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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks to me like H5 is similarly positioned, but a hair stronger at 12z.

There were some offsetting features....12z was a bit stronger with the H5 closed low, but the whole thing was just a smidge east of 06z....the expanded H5 low helped offset the microscopic east trend.

It's still an outlier though....I was wanting to see more help at 12z than we got. Just about all model guidance shifted west towards it but not by enough IMHO. We'll see though....we've had some of these weird "backing up" storms trend hard in the final 60 hours before.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

There were some offsetting features....12z was a bit stronger with the H5 closed low, but the whole thing was just a smidge east of 06z....the expanded H5 low helped offset the microscopic east trend.

It's still an outlier though....I was wanting to see more help at 12z than we got. Just about all model guidance shifted west towards it but not by enough IMHO. We'll see though....we've had some of these weird "backing up" storms trend hard in the final 60 hours before.

I feel like the "upside" is me watching Brett bitch his way to another good storm.

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